US stock Indices closed slightly lower following late comments from U.S. Vice President Mike Pence saying he cannot guarantee there will not be another US government shutdown though several Congressmen and women have been out saying they think it can be averted. US bond yields are unchanged at 10 years, currently 2.70%. Meanwhile the U.S Dollar closed higher for the fourth consecutive trading session resulting in the Euro falling 0.3% to close at 1.1360 in New York.
To mark my 1800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org for detail
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 145 points for February, having made 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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On Brexit – and where GBP is little moved over the past 24 hours – the EU’s Donald Tusk has been out saying there will be no new EU proposal to break the deadlock in Brexit talks regarding the backstop. The FT reports the EU is frustrated about the UK’s unclear position with Tusk “wondering what a special place in hell looks like for those who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan for how to carry it out’’.
UK Prime Minister May’s (hard line) response has been to say that if the EU wants the UK to leave with a deal, there will have to be changes to the Withdrawal Agreement. Assuming this is not to be the case, or not to the extent that allows May’s deal to win parliamentary approval, then I continue to look for a plan that would prevent a no deal Brexit/lead the UK to request an Article 50 extension which would be a Sterling – positive development to be sure.
Oil prices are 0.5-1.0% higher, after the EIA reported a smaller than expected build in crude inventories last week (1.26 million barrels against the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.86 million). Meanwhile both Gold and Silver ended the day 0.4% and 1.0% lower on the back of the stronger U.S. Dollar.
We had another bigger than expected drop in German Factory Orders, -1.6% in December (versus +0.3% expected) and now 7% down on a year ago. This took a fresh bite out of the Euro and is the main reason the DXY dollar Index is 0.34% higher on the day.
The US November trade balance came in on the low side of expectations at -$49.3bn versus -$54.0bn expected, which largely reflects a drop off in imports that were front loaded ahead of the imposition of US tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese goods.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Industrial Production at 7.00 am and this is followed at 9.30 am by UK Halifax House Prices. Next we have Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin at 10.00 am. At 12.00 pm we have the UK Interest Rate decision, followed by Bank of England Governor Carney’s speech at 12.30 pm. At 1.30 pm we have the U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims. Finally at 2.30 pm the Fed Member Clarida is speaking on Monetary Policy and the Economy.
March S&P 500
Yesterday was the quietest trading sessions for the S&P in many months. After a 400 Handle rally in six weeks it is understandable that the market is having difficulty in breaking its 200 Day Moving Average at 2741. I am still flat and today I will now lower my sell level to 2739/2751 with a 2758 stop. Meanwhile I will leave my 2692/2705 buy level unchanged with the same 2684 stop.
Late in the New York session the Euro traded lower to my 1.1365 buy level. I am still long and I will now raise my stop on this position to 1.1315. My T/P level will remain unchanged at 1.1385. If I am stopped out of this long position I will be a more aggressive buyer on any further dip lower to 1.1210/1.1260 with a 1.1155 stop.
March Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and my only interest in selling the market is on a further rally to 96.50/96.85 with a higher 97.15 stop.
I am still flat the DAX which had a small sell-off after the massive run higher over the past week. Today I will be a small buyer from 11100/11170 with a 11055 stop. Meanwhile I will leave my 11550/11650 sell level unchanged with the same 11720 stop.
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 7000/7040 with a 6965 stop. Ahead of the Bank of England Meeting and Carney speech I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Just like the S&P above the trading range for the Dow was one of the lowest in many months. I am still flat and I will continue to be a seller on any rally higher to 25550/25700 with the same 25820 stop. Given the loss of momentum I am reluctant to chase the Dow higher and today I will leave my 25000/25130 buy level unchanged with the same 24895 stop.
I am still flat the NASDAQ and today I will now raise my buy level to 6870/6930 with a 6815 stop.
The Bund had a small rally yesterday and I am still flat. Today I will continue to be a buyer of the market on any dip lower to 164.65/165.05 with the same 164.25 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
With Gold selling off into the New York close, I emailed my Platinum Members to lower their Gold buy level to 1288/1296 with a lower 1281 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1302.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still long the market at 15.83 with the same 15.45 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 15.90 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.