Equity and Bond Markets were choppy while the Dollar took a hit on the soft ISM services PMI. Stocks started the session on the front foot in wake of the ISM data while T-Notes pared the earlier ADP-induced weakness. Fed Chair Powell largely stuck to the script which only pushed stocks and bonds higher sending the Dollar Index lower as the hot data seen recently appears to not have phased the Fed Chair. Although stocks had jumped throughout the majority of the session, gains pared in the last hour of trade as traders unwound positions. Crude prices were bid throughout the morning, albeit settled off best levels, after continued geopolitics, OPEC JMMC and the weekly EIA data. The DXY tumbled throughout the session, particularly on the soft ISM Services print which also saw prices paid ease, at odds with the strong/hot manufacturing PMI seen earlier in the week. The data and reiterations from Fed Chair Powell saw traders ultimately price in more rate cuts throughout the year. The ADP data initially saw traders pare Interest Rate cut bets but the soft ISM data and Powell commentary saw Money Markets lean dovish again with 72bps of easing priced throughout year-end vs. 66bps in wake of the ADP. Semiconductors tumbled pre-market after Taiwan’s strongest earthquake in 25 years which saw TSMC (TSM) halt some of its operations. Nonetheless, the equity upside saw the chip weakness pare with the Semi ETF (SOXX) closing flat. ADP National Employment for March rose to 184k, above the expected 148k, and the prior, revised higher, 155k. Looking at annual pay, the median change in job-stayers was unchanged at 5.1%, while job-changers jumped to 10% from 7.6%. Within the report, ADP Chief Economist noted “March was surprising not just for the pay gains, but the sectors that recorded them. The three biggest increases for job-changers were in construction, financial services, and manufacturing”. The economist added that inflation has been cooling, but their data shows pay is heating up in both goods and services. Regarding the gains, the report notes last month saw the biggest jump in hiring since July, led by leisure and hospitality. Overall, job gains were strong across industries with the exception of professional services, where it fell. Looking ahead, attention turns to the US labour market report tomorrow, where the headline is expected to rise 200k, with the forecast range 150-250k. Meanwhile Fed Member Bostic, (2024 voter, hawk) said the economy is maintaining the strong momentum it had, if there is any weakening, it is at a very incremental level. Bostic thinks it is appropriate to cut rates in Q4 this year if the economy evolves as he expects. He also said he still only expects one rate cut in 2024. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 0.48% while a weaker Dollar saw Gold end Wednesday with a gain of 0.7%.
To mark my 2975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 101 points yesterday and is now ahead by 421 points for April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.11% higher at a price of 5211.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 43 points lower for a 0.11% loss at a price of 39,127.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.21% higher at a price of 18,160.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.29% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.5% higher.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.97% lower at a price of 39,451.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.54% lower.
The Euro closed 0.6% higher at $1.0835.
The British Pound closed 0.6% higher at 1.2652.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $151.67.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 2 basis points lower at 2.38%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 4.06%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.35.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.48% higher at $85.46 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.7% higher at $2297.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K. Composite PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. Next, we have Euro-Zone PPI at 10.00 am and the ECB Monetary Policy Minutes from the March Meeting at 12.30 pm. This is followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Trade Balance at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Harker, Barkin, Goolsbee, Kashkari and Mester at 1.30 pm, 5.15 pm, 5.45 pm, 7.00 pm and 7.05 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Despite the sell-off in the S&P this week, Bullish Sentiment remains extreme. This week’s Investors Intelligence Advisors’ Survey shows a bull-bear spread of 48.4. This is the second highest level of the past 37 years. Meanwhile the latest readings of the Exposure Index from the National Association of Active Investment Managers, shows active Money Managers are leveraged long in their portfolios. This chart shows that that those managers who say they are the most bearish are actually net-long 50%. So even the ‘’Real Bears’’ are now bulls. Their net-long stance equals that of November 2021, when the Value Line Composite Index, Russel 2000 Index and NASDAQ Index all made tops. I am still flat the S&P as my wider than normal parameters were not hit. Ahead of today’s key Fed speeches and tomorrow’s NFP release, I am going to leave yesterday’s buy/sell levels unchanged. The S&P has support from 5170/5185 where I will be a small buyer with a higher 5157 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will leave my 5240/5256 sell level unchanged with the same 5272 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
EUR/USD
After the Euro rallied to my 1.0798 exit level on my 1.0845 average long position, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the Euro again at a price of 1.0828. I will add to this position at 1.0768 with a now lower 1.0712 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have a T/P level on this position at 1.0910. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar closed lower yesterday as expected and I am still flat as the market never came close to Wednesday’s sell level. I will now lower my sell level to 104.70/105.40 with a lower 106.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 104.25.
Cash DAX
The DAX tried to recover some of Tuesday’s sell-off. This move higher saw the DAX hit my 18420 sell level with a 18430 high print so far. As I go to post the DAX is trading lower at 18360. I have now exited this short position here and I am now flat. Today I will again be a seller on any further rally to 18470/18560 with a higher 18665 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 18385. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
My FTSE plan worked well as the market sold off to my 7890-buy level before rallying to my 7930 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. As I said yesterday, I will continue to be a buyer of the FTSE on dips as long as there is no close below 7750. Today, I will again be a buyer from 7810/7890 with a 7765 ‘’’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have no T/P level on this position.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still flat. The Dow has support from 38650/38900 where I will be a small buyer with a 38495 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my sell level to 39580/39830 with the same 40105 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 39440. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 39080.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX never came close to either my sell/buy levels yesterday and I am still flat. Ahead of today’s key data and tomorrow’s Payrolls I will not change any of my parameters. Therefore, I will again be a buyer of the NDX on any further dip lower to 17820/17970 with the same 17695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NDX has resistance from 18400/18550 where I will continue to be a be a small seller with the same 18705 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March BUND
My Bund plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 132.00 buy level before rallying to my revised 132.48 T/P level and I am now flat. The Bund has support from 131.40/132.10 where I will again be a buyer with a higher 130.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Ahead of today’s key economic data, I will again raise my Gold sell level to 2320/2336 with a higher 2351 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2306. Given how overvalued Gold is trading, I still do not want to be long the market at this time, preferring to buy the undervalued Silver.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver has now rallied over 25% since its February low at 21.92. This is some move in six weeks. Although I am not long the Silver Contract, I do have a large portion of Silver in my Pension Fund which I have no interest in selling. Silver has short-term support from 25.80/26.50. I will move my buy level higher to this area with a 24.85 ”Closing Stop”. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 27.30.
Please Note: There will be no Daily Commentary tomorrow (Friday). Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered tomorrow will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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