MPs have voted by a majority of one to force the Prime Minister to ask for an extension to the Brexit process, in a bid to avoid any no-deal scenario.The bill, put forward by Labour’s Yvette Cooper, was passed by the Commons in just one day.However, it will need to be approved by the Lords before it becomes law. It would also still be for the EU to decide whether to grant any extension. The vote comes after Theresa May met Jeremy Corbyn for talks on Brexit.The discussions between the leaders, who are trying to find agreement on a way forward, were described as “constructive”, but Mr Corbyn added that they were “inconclusive”.Teams from both parties were meeting last night ahead of a full day of talks on Thursday to see if they can agree a Brexit plan to put to a vote in the House ahead of an emergency EU summit on 10 April. If they cannot, the prime minister has pledged to put a number of options to the vote – including the deal she has negotiated with the EU, which has already been rejected by MPs three times.
To mark my 1800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 37 points yesterday and is now ahead by 97 points for April, having made 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Both U.S and European Indices closed higher yesterday, led by the German DAX which rose 200 points or 1.70% at 11955 which was its highest close since October 10, 2018. Although the US Indices closed positive they were well off their intra-day highs. The NASDAQ was the strongest closing 0.60% higher, helped by the fact that the 50 Day Moving Average moved back above the 200 Day Moving Average, kicking in the so called ‘’Golden Cross’’ bullish signal. The S&P ‘’ Golden Cross’’ was crossed last week.
The Pound rallied after the MPs voted by a margin of just one vote to ask for an extension to the Brexit process in order to avoid leaving without a deal. The Euro rallied small to close at 1.1240 while the big winner yesterday was the Australian Dollar, helped by better Retail Sales and Trade data. The Japanese Yen was the weakest currency with ‘’risk off’’ flows sending the Yen lower.
The rally in the DAX saw Bund Yields rise with the market closing back in positive territory at 0.008%. Meanwhile the US 10-Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 2.49% following the release of the weaker than expected ADP Employment Change as we wait for the key Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow.
Bitcoin rallied a further 12% yesterday closing at $5300 having earlier tested its 200 Day Moving Average at 4650. Technically speaking the recent $1500 rally is bullish and any sell-off should ideally hold the 200 Day MA before moving higher. Meanwhile Gold, Silver and WTI traded in narrow ranges yesterday.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Factory Orders which again disappointed with a – 4.2% print versus +0.3% expected. At 12.30 pm we have the release of the latest ECB Minutes and U.S. Challenger Job Cuts. This is followed at 1.30 pm by Initial Jobless Claims. Finally the Fed’s Mester and Williams are speaking this evening at 6.00 pm and 9.00 pm respectively.
June S&P 500
Frustratingly the S&P missed my 2890 initial sell level with a 2889.25 high print before falling 20 Handles and I am still flat. With the NFP data tomorrow I would expect markets to go on hold ahead of this key Economic data. Today I will leave my 2850/2862 buy level unchanged with the same 2842 stop. The S&P did close its October 9 ‘’Open Gap’’ at 2884 yesterday before selling off and today I will lower my sell level to 2886/2898 with a 2905 wider stop.
The Euro continues to hold the key 1.1175 support level. This is no surprise with the Daily Sentiment Index approaching single digits. I am still flat the Euro and today I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1155/1.1195 with a 1.1115 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and today I will now lower my sell level to 97.00/97.40 with a 97.75 stop.
Thankfully we had no sell levels in the DAX yesterday which rallied an impressive 200 points to close at 11955. The next target level is May 2018 high at 12045. The DAX is severely overbought but any sell-off should hold the key 11800 support level. Today I will raise my buy level to 11770/11840 with a 11715 stop.
The FTSE traded higher to my 7348 sell level before selling off 50 points overnight. As I wanted to be flat into the close I covered this position at my revised 7336 T/P level and I am now flat. As long as Cable can hold the 1.3050/1.3100 support level I would expect the FTSE to have difficultly in moving higher especially as the market is trading at the top of its Daily Bollinger Band and Williams Index. Today I will again look to sell the FTSE from 7345/7385 with a 7415 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 26140 buy level with a 26138 low print before rallying 150 points. However I did not buy the Dow myself as I was hoping it would fall further into my buy range and I am still flat. Today I will again look to buy the market on any dip lower to 25950/26100 with a 25865 tight stop.
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 7600 sell level before hitting my 7575 T/P level and I am now flat. On March 21, the DSI hit 95% bulls before we saw a quick 250 point sell-off in the market. Yesterday the DSI closed at 91% bulls for the second consecutive day which is another warning sign for lower prices. Today I will again look to sell the market from 7590/7640 with the same 7675 stop.
I have had the correct view in trying to fade rallies but unfortunately the market is not giving me a chance to get short and I am still flat. I am reluctant to chase this market lower ahead of the ECB Minutes this afternoon and I will leave my 166.05/166.45 sell level unchanged with the same 166.75 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I still do not trust this Gold market and I will leave my 1269/1278 buy level unchanged with the same 1261 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long the market at 15.20 with the same 15.25 T/P level and 14.65 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.