U.S. Equity Markets and Treasury Bonds had seen upside throughout Wednesday’s European morning after cooler-than-expected inflation prints from German states and Spain, with the later released national German CPI also much cooler than forecast. US equity futures peaked shortly after the cash open with little reaction seen to the revision higher in the 2nd estimate of Q3 US GDP, while PCE saw a slight revision lower. The upside, however, reversed shortly after the open with the downside supported by hawkish commentary from 2024 Fed voter Barkin who refused to take another rate hike off the table and noted rate cut talks are premature, offsetting some of the dovishness from Governor Waller on Tuesday. Fed dove Bostic, however, reiterated some dovish remarks on inflation and growth. Treasuries bull-steepened further with soft German inflation data adding to month-end factors while oil prices chopped to source reports ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today, with Saudi Arabia favouring curbs of up to 1mln BPD while Nigeria, Angola, and also the UAE, are reluctant to cut output with sources suggesting a rollover of most existing output curbs as the most likely scenario. In M&A, the Wall Street Journal reported that Cigna (CI) and Humana (HUM) are in talks to combine in a stock-and-cash deal, according to sources, who note the deal could be finalised by year-end. Meanwhile, cloud names surged after impressive earnings from CrowdStrike (CRWD), Workday (WDAY), and NetApp (NTAP). Attention turns to the October US PCE report on Thursday, ahead of Fed Chair Powell and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday. European Markets closed higher led by the German DAX. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.90% while Gold ended Wednesday’s session with a small 0.2% gain.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 336 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1734 points for November. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
The S&P 500 closed 0.09% lower at a price of 4550.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 13 points higher for a 0.04% gain at a price of 35,430.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.14% lower at a price of 15,987.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.45% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.26% lower at a price of 33,321.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.10% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0970.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2695.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.2% closing at $147.14.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 8 basis points lower at 2.42%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points lower at 4.10%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points lower at 4.27%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.90% higher at $77.86 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $2045.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Retail Sales at 7.00 am and the Unemployment Rate at 8.55 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone Unemployment and CPI at 10.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by the U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the PCE Deflator. Finally, we have the Chicago Fed Purchasing Managers Index at 2.45 pm and Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well yesterday as the S&P spiked to an afternoon high at 4588. This move higher saw the whole of my sell range triggered for a 4579 average short position. Subsequently, the S&P fell 40 Handles, hitting my 4560 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 4575/4593 with a 4607 higher ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has support below from 4510/4525 where I will continue to be a small buyer with a 4499 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
My short 1.1006 Euro position worked well as the market sold off to my 1.0960 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a seller from 1.1020/1.1070 with a higher 1.1135 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given the extended 14 Day RSI, I still do not want to be long the Euro at this time.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still long at an average rate of 103.10 with the same 103.45 T/P level. I will leave my 102.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
The DAX surged yesterday, trading the whole of my sell range for a now 16160 average short position. Even though the 14-Day RSI closed at a severely overbought 74 print last night, I want to try and protect the gains for November. Therefore, I will raise my T/P level on this position to 16135. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
No Change. The FTSE has support below from 7300/7360 where I will be a strong buyer with a 7235 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Despite the 14-Day RSI closing at 72 last night, the Dow still managed to make a new recovery high at 35,580, before selling off 150 points into the close. I am still short at an average rate of 35400. As we are having a good month, I will now raise my exit level on this position to a small loss at 35410, with the same tight 35705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well yesterday as the NDX hit my 16100-sell level before selling off to my revised 16000 T/P level and I am now flat. With all three RSIs over 70 I have no interest in being long the market at this time. As I am in Miami airport ready to board for Dublin, this is a shorter Daily Commentary than normal. Today, I will again be a seller of the NDX from 16130/16280 with a higher 16405 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the NDX at this time.
The Bund hit a new recovery high yesterday as Bund Yields closed lower at 2.42%. Given the extent of the bund rally I no longer want to be long the Bund at this time, especially as we are short-term overbought. As a result, I will stay flat until I return on Monday.
Gold Rolling Contract
As I said yesterday there is still room for Gold to move higher as we are far from being short-term overbought. The $2000 which acted as strong resistance for all of 2023, should be supportive on any subsequent tests. Today, I will leave my 2000/2015 buy level unchanged with the same 1989 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. Silver has support below from 23.70/24.40 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 22.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 25.10.