U.S Indices closed higher as the Federal Reserve kept rates steady, but said it is committed to doing whatever it takes to meet its dual mandate of maximum Employment and stable prices. It also pledged to continue Asset Purchases “at least” at the current pace. In his press conference, Fed chair Jerome Powell said the Fed will do whatever necessary to help the economy rebound as quickly as possible. Pending Home Sales surged in June and topped estimates, in yet another show of strength for the housing market. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said it would be “reasonable” to expect a safe and effective Coronavirus vaccine by December. Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate protected 16 monkeys against the virus, according to an abstract released in the New England Journal of Medicine. As expected, Republicans and Democrats may be closer on a stimulus agreement than public comments indicate especially as the Congress closes next Friday for the Summer Recess. European Indices closed mixed after European Central Bank Governing Council Member Yannis Stournaras said the central bank is unlikely to end its pandemic emergency plan until inflation rallies, implying it will be around for some time. In other news, Spanish Retail Sales data for June declined at a much slower pace than May’s data, indicating the country’s economy may be turning the corner. Elsewhere, the US Dollar closed 0.3% lower while Gold continued its recent rally to close 0.5% higher at $1967.
To mark my 2125th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 61 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3063 points for July, having made 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
The S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to close at a price of 3258.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 160 points for a 0.62% gain to close at 26,539.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.25% higher at 10,662.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.1%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index decreased 0.2%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.26% lower at 22,339
Here is a Summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.3%.
The Euro increased 0.5% to $1.178.
The Japanese Yen appreciated 0.1% to 105.02 per dollar.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped two basis points to 0.56%.
Germany’s 10-year yield climbed one basis point to -0.50%.
Britain’s 10-year yield rose one basis point to 0.118%.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.7%.
West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 0.6% to $41.29 a barrel.
Gold strengthened 0.5% to $1,967.58 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German Unemployment and GDP at 8.55 am and 9.00 am respectively. Also, at 9.00 am we have Euro-Zone Economic Bulletin, Unemployment, Business Climate and Consumer Confidence. This is followed at 1.00 pm by German CPI and at 1.30 pm by the latest U.S Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and PCE. The Initial Claims will be closely watched after rising last week for the first time since March.
The S&P never came close to my buy level yesterday with the market rallying from 7.00 am before accelerating into the close on a dovish Fed. The S&P fell shy of my 3260 sell level with an overnight high at 3256 and I am still flat. The market continues to follow my road map with the expectation that more of the 3283/3333 outstanding ‘’Gap’’ from Feb 21/24 will be filled before we finally see a more meaningful correction. If it were not for the underperforming Dow we would be there already. Today I will raise my buy level to 3210/3225 with a 3199 tight stop. The S&P has strong resistance from 3282/3297 where I will be a strong seller with a 3310 stop.
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 1.1800 sell level before selling off to my 1.1759 revised T/P level and I am still flat. The 1.1800 area is huge as a sustained break above here opens up the possibility of a move higher to 1.21, 1.25 and eventually 1.30. Short-term the Euro is severely overbought after a 10% move since March and today I will again look to sell the Euro from 1.1800/1.1840 with a tight 1.1865 stop. As I am still expecting a correction off the 1.1800 resistance area I will continue to be an aggressive buyer from 1.1535/1.1585 with the same 1.1490 stop.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar traded lower to my 93.40 buy level. I will continue to add to this position on any further move lower to 92.90 with a 92.55 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 93.65 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
The DAX continues to struggle and I am still flat. A combination of the fear of a second wave of COVID-19 and the stronger Euro have led to the DAX trade sideways for the last two weeks. Today I will raise my buy level to 12560/12690 with a 12495 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
I am still flat the FTSE which again traded in a narrow range. With Cable trading near 1.30, the FTSE is soft. However, despite the market trading heavy I still would not short the FTSE at this time. Today I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 6000/6050 with the same 5965 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Boeing joined the number of Dow Stocks that reported poor earnings over the past two weeks which is weighing on the market. However, the weaker Dollar should help the earnings of the Dow stocks going forward. We continue to hold the 200 Day Moving Average which is key and today I will now raise my buy level to 26180/26360 with a 26025 higher stop. My only interest in selling the Dow is still on a further rally to 27050/27300 with a 27450 stop.
I am still flat the NASDAQ and today I will raise my buy level higher to 10520/10620 with a 10445 tight stop. The NASDAQ has strong resistance from 10900/11000 and I will now move my sell level to this area with a 11105 wider stop.
Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the Bund traded lower to my 176.90 T/P level on my latest 177.10 short position and I am still flat. Given the insane negative yield on the Bund I will continue to be a seller on rallies. The Bund has near-term resistance from 177.45/177.85 where I will again be a seller with a 178.25 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold and today I will now lower my sell level to 1990/2005 with a lower 2013 stop. Gold has strong support at 1911 which is the previous all-time high from 2011. As a result, I will continue to be an aggressive buyer from 1902/1916 with a 1891 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver is trading lower this morning at 23.50, 10% off it recent high which is no surprise given the fact that the DSI was at 93% bulls. Silver has support from 22.00/22.60 where I will be a buyer with a 21.35 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 23.15.