Stocks were primarily sold on Wednesday heading into the Thanksgiving holiday and on the last full trading day of month-end. There was notable underperformance in the NASDAQ after a slew of tech/software earnings stumbled after earnings (DELL, HPQ, ADSK, CRWD, WDAY). Small caps initially outperformed but all the gains had been wiped out by the US close, likely on month-end related flows. Sectors were mixed with tech, the clear laggard alongside consumer discretionary while real estate and healthcare outperformed. T-notes rallied throughout the session in the wake of a plethora of US data and a strong 7 Year Treasury Auction. Regarding the data, US Q3 GDP was unrevised but the quarterly Core PCE was revised down while the monthly PCE was in line with expectations for both the headline and core. Jobless Claims were in line while Durable Goods missed on the headline. The advanced goods trade balance deficit narrowed while pending home sales saw a surprise rise. Chicago PMI was woeful. In FX, the Dollar tumbled likely on month-end flows but the Yen outperformed with support from lower UST yields while the Kiwi also led gains after the 50bps rate cut from the RBNZ as expected, but with a 2025 OCR forecast above market expectations. The Euro was supported by hawkish commentary from ECB’s Schnabel, who only sees limited room for further rate cuts. The Aussie was a relative laggard after soft inflation data while CAD remains hampered by tariff fears. Note, USD/BRL rallied to the highest level since May 2020 on reports that Haddad will announce an income tax exemption for those earning up to BRL 5000. Oil prices were choppy to inventory data with the private report posting a large draw on Tuesday night but the official data saw a smaller draw than what was suggested. The October PCE report saw headline and core prices inline with expectations. The Core M/M rose 0.3%, matching the prior pace, while Y/Y rose 2.8%, accelerating from the 2.7% prior; Pantheon Macroeconomics highlighted that when rounded, Core PCE rose by 0.27%, the highest since March. The headline numbers rose by 0.2%, matching the prior pace while the Y/Y printed 2.3%, accelerating from the prior 2.1%. However, Pantheon also pointed out that the increase was largely due to upside in volatile components, airline fares, used autos and portfolio management fees. Elsewhere in the report, personal income rose by 0.6%, above the 0.3% forecast and prior. Personal Spending, on a real basis, rose by 0.1%, beneath the 0.2% forecast and down from the prior 0.5% (revised up from 0.4%), while adj. spending rose by 0.4%, above the 0.3% forecast, down from the prior 0.6% (revised up from 0.5%). Pantheon adds that the real expenditure print puts it on course to rise at an annualised Q/Q rate of 2.5% in Q4, down from 3.5% in Q3. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed Wednesday unchanged.
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 198 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3049 points for November having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.38% lower at a price of 5998.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 138 points lower for a 0.31% loss at a price of 44,722.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.80% lower at a price of 20,744.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.19% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.8% lower at a price of 38,134.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.90% lower.
The Euro closed 0.9% higher at $1.0567.
The British Pound closed 1.1% higher at 1.2676.
The Japanese Yen rose 1.25% closing at $151.15.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower 2.16%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 4.30%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points lower at 4.23%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.1% lower at $68.50 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.1% higher at $2634 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone CPI and Consumer Confidence at 10.00 am. Next, we have German CPI at 1.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from ECB Members Elderson at 1.00 pm and Lane at 5.00 pm. There is no U.S. data today due to the Thanksgiving Holiday.
Cash S&P 500
As there is every prospect of the Trump Administration wanting to radically change the U.S. Tax Code offering the possibility of lower taxes going forward there is every chance that the current rally will extend into the New Year as investors will wait to take their gain is order to pay less tax. The only real potential sell trigger this year would be the Fed Meeting in December. The current hapless Fed is now handwringing about the neutral rate and seeing inflation picking up again after they allowed financial conditions to run wild on the loose end yet again exacerbating every absurd widening wealth gap. However, this may not matter as some of my signal charts like the $NYSI continue to have plenty of room higher. New highs continue to come on strong negative divergences, but tops only tend to come from pokes above the Weekly Bollinger Band. Following the small sell-off over the past few days the top of the Weekly Bollinger Band is now at 6100. I know risks are building but I am reluctant to chase the S&P lower preferring to sell rips with reasonable stops. Ahead of the long weekend in America with markets closed today and only open for a half-day tomorrow I will now raise my S&P sell level to 6048/6068 with a 6085 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 5940/5956. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 5923 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6032. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5972.
EUR/USD
The oversold Euro finally had a rally, closing 0.9% higher, trading at a price of 1.0570 as I go to press. I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0665. Given how oversold the Euro I will continue to hold this position with no stop for now. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.0690. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar closed almost 1% lower yesterday as the market tries to correct some of its massively overbought technical. I am still flat as the Dollar just fell shy of Wednesday’s sell level before falling over 100 points. The Dollar has strong support from 104.50/105.30 where I will be a buyer with a 103.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be short the Dollar at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T./P level at 105.80.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well as the market sold off to my 19170-buy level before rallying to my 19260 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a small buyer on any further dip lower to 19010/19110 with the same 18995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 19180. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
After the FTSE traded lower to my 8240 initial buy level we had a small bounce. I used this rally to exit my long position at my revised 8272 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The FTSE has support below from 8150/8220 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 8075 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8260. Despite the FTSE been short-term overbought I have no interest in selling the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly the Dow just missed my 45100 initial sell level before falling almost 300 points into the close and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a small seller from 45100/45400 with a 44605 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 43670/43920 with the same 43495 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Remember given how overbought this market is with a Market Cap to GDP above 207% can break at anytime thus my low buy level in the Dow for the consecutive second trading session.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market sold off to my 20630-buy level before rallying over 100 points. I used this rally to exit any long position at my revised 20706 T/P level and I am now flat. The NDX has support below from 20380/20530 where I will be a strong buyer with a lower 20295 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 20640. Ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday my only interest in selling the NDX is still on a rip higher to 21200/21360 with the same 21505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 21040.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market again traded in a narrow range. Ahead of today’s Thanksgiving Holiday I will now raise my Bund sell level to 134.70/135.40 while leaving my 136.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. Meanwhile, my only interest in buying the market is still on a dip lower to 131.50/132.20 with the same 130.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 134.20. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 132.80.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold again traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. Gold hit a morning high at 2658 before falling $25 into the close. As I am still long Silver, I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 2575/2592 with the same 2559 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2608.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still long Silver at an average rate of 32.30 from two weeks ago with a now lower 29.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’. This morning Silver is trading lower at 30.12. I will now leave my T/P level unchanged at 32.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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