Asian stocks, European and U.S. Futures slipped after President Donald Trump signed a bill backing Hong Kong protesters, spurring another threat of retaliation from China and raising concerns about the prospect for an interim trade deal. The Japanese Yen nudged higher and the Yuan lower amid the increase in bilateral strains. Hong Kong shares pared an initial drop, with China’s statement stopping short of any immediate retaliatory action. Japanese, Chinese and South Korean shares had modest declines. Earlier, the S&P 500 hit a fresh record high after U.S. economic data beat analysts’ expectations. The Pound rose after a poll suggested the U.K. election could deliver a large majority for the Conservative Party. With volumes light ahead of the Thanksgiving break and little in the way of direct trade news, Trump’s signing of a bill increasing American scrutiny of Hong Kong was one of the few narratives for investors. A global benchmark of developing and emerging-market equities remains just below its all-time record, on course for a third month of gains. Elsewhere, a drop in Latin American currencies turned into a rout Wednesday as Chile’s Peso, Brazil’s Real and Colombia’s Peso all hit record lows. Oil fell for a second day after U.S. crude production rose to a record.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 681 points for November, having made 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2% as of 7:02 a.m. in London.
Japan’s Topix index fell 0.2%.
South Korea’s Kospi index dipped 0.4%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.1%.
Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.5%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.2%.
Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.3%. The underlying gauge rose 0.4% on Wednesday, closing at a new record high of 3153.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures dropped 0.2%.
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Japanese Yen rose 0.1% to 109.47 per dollar after slipping 0.5% on Wednesday.
The offshore Yuan fell 0.1% at 7.0238 per dollar.
The Pound added 0.2% to $1.2943.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.1010
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose about three basis points to 1.77% Wednesday.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed unchanged at -0.37%.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $57.84 a barrel.
Gold fell 0.2% to $1,456 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Money Supply at 9.00 am and the Economic Sentiment Indicator at 10.00 am. Finally, at 1.00 pm we have German CPI.
The U.S. celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday, when Equity and Bond markets will be shut.
December S&P 500
Bullish sentiment remains high. This week’s results of the Investors Intelligence Advisors’ Survey shows market bulls have increased to 58.1%, which is a 13-month extreme. According to Bloomberg, the bull-bear spread ranks in the 95% of the data going back 30 years. I am still short the S&P from early yesterday morning at 3146 with the market just missing my 3140 T/P level by 1 point after Trump signed a bill backing Hong Kong protestors. The Futures Market is open until 4.30 pm today and I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 3143. I will continue to add to this trade at a price of 3158 with the same 3165 stop, If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0940/1.0980 with the same 1.0905 stop.
December Dollar Index
The Dollar closed flat yesterday as the market again traded in a narrow range. I will now lower my sell level to 98.45/98.85 with a lower 99.15 stop.
I am still flat the DAX as the market struggles to rally despite the Euro trading near the lows of the year at 1.10. Today I will lower my buy level slightly to 13070/13130 with a 13025 stop.
Unfortunately the FTSE just missed my 7450 sell level with a high of 7440 before selling off to trade at 7390 as I go to press. I will now lower my sell level to 7435/7475 with a lower 7505 stop. Despite the FTSE trading positive over the past week I still do not want to be long the market at this time given how severely overbought we are currently.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow will re-open tomorrow but only for a half-session, which traditionally has experienced very slow trading with most traders on vacation until next Monday. Yesterday the VIX closed below 12 for the third consecutive session. Investors are so complacent that, paradoxically, it signals a coming pick up in volatility. As mentioned last week that we have a record number of Short VIX Futures Contracts and in my opinion this will not end well. The US Indices made their 101st new all-time high yesterday since President Trump was elected three years ago. I am still flat the Dow and today I will lower my sell level to 28180/28330 with a lower 28405 stop.
No Change as I am still short the market from yesterday morning at 8415 with the same 8465 stop. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 8405 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
The BUND is opening higher this morning and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 170.85/171.15 with a 170.49 tight stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1438/1446 with the same 1431 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
The boring sideways action in Silver continues and I am still flat. Given the fact that Gold is finding it difficult to rally I am not going to chase the price of Silver higher and I will leave my 16.45/16.85 buy level unchanged with the same 16.18 tight stop. The last four Decembers’ have seen a bottom in both Gold and Silver that was followed by at least a 10% rise over the following two months and I have a feeling that this trend may continue.