U.S. Equity Markets closed mixed but with a downside bias. The Russell 2000 underperformed while the NASDAQ 100 closed marginally green but both the S&P and Dow reversed earlier gains to close lower. Sectors were predominantly red with Energy, Health Care and Materials lagging, while Utilities and Tech were the only sectors in the green with upside in Nvidia (NVDA) supporting the move while for communications, Meta (META) was bid after its Meta Connect day where it announced a slew of AI updates. In FX, the Dollar saw strong outperformance led by an escalation of Middle East geopolitics with New Zealand Dollar hit the most after recent gains but the Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen were the next worst hit in the G10 space. The Yen was weighed on by firmer US Treasury Yields, with T-Note futures hit by chunky corporate supply, namely the USD 6.5billion from Oracle’s (ORCL) 4-parter, while there was likely some dealer concession for the 5-year supply, which ultimately came in mixed with little reaction. Crude prices were lower on hopes of Libya’s resumption of exports after reports that rival factions resumed talks with the oil blockade nearing its second month, meanwhile, it also announced that proceedings were in place to name a new central bank governor. The heightened Middle East geopolitics had little impact on oil with Libya updates dominating, while bullish inventory data only saw a minor reaction. Attention on Thursday turns to US GDP (Final estimate, Q2), plus a plethora of Fed speak and the 7 Year Treasury Auction. New Home Sales fell 4.7% in August to 716k from 739k, but above the expected 700k, whereby new home supply was 7.8 months’ worth (prev. 7.3 months’ worth). Overall, Oxford Economics notes that plentiful supply and homebuilder incentives have weighed on new home prices, which have trended lower over the last year. However, as the consultancy adds, builders are scaling back their use of price cuts as mortgage rates decline, which should limit any further declines in new home prices and should support modest growth in new home sales over the rest of 2024 and in 2025. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.61% lower while despite a stronger Dollar Gold closed flat.
To mark my 3075th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 303 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4022 points for September having ended August with a loss of 301 points after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.19% lower at a price of 5722.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 293 points lower for a 0.70% loss at a price of 41,914.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.14% higher at a price of 19,972.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.15% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.8% higher.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 2.79% higher at a price of 38,925.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.47% higher.
The Euro closed 0.35% lower at $1.1129.
The British Pound closed 0.5% lower at 1.3319.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.9% closing at $144.65.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher 2.19%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points higher at 4.01%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 3.79%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.61% lower at $69.69 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.05% lower at $2657 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of the German GFK Consumer Confidence Survey which printed -21.2 versus -22.5 expected. Next, we have ECB Economic Bulletin at 9.00 am. This is followed by speeches from ECB Members Elderson and McCaul at 10.00 am and 10.15 am respectively. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, Final GDP and Durable Goods Orders. This is followed by Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index at 4.00 pm. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Collins, Kugler, Powell, Williams, Barr and Kashkari at 2.10 pm, 2.15 pm, 2.20 pm 2.25 pm and 6.15 pm respectively. Meanwhile Treasury Secretary Yellen is also on the wires at 4.15 pm
Cash S&P 500
The big news this morning is the announcement that China has announced a massive stimulus to propel their economy forward. Part of this stimulus is the news that they are considering injecting $142 billion of capital into the main banks. Futures Markets have soared overnight as a result led by the 3% rally in the Nikkei. This move higher sees the S&P trading at a new-all-time high at 5763 as I go to post. Breadth in yesterday’s session was extremely weak as shown by the McClellan Oscillator closing at -10. This should not be happening with markets at new highs. Given the backdrop and the numerous negative divergences I will continue with my strategy of selling rallies. I still believe that the meltdown in Global Equity Markets on August 5 was not a one-off. Today I expect a lot of volatility given the number of Fed speakers including Fed Chair Powell. Just to add to the expected volatility we have a speech from Treasury Secretary Yellen at 4.15 pm. Yesterday my S&P plan worked well as the market rallied to my 5741-sell level before falling 25 Handles. This move lower saw my revised 5733 T/P level triggered and I am still flat. The S&P has further resistance from 5772/5790 where I will again be a seller with a higher 5805 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5752. Even though buyers are aggressively buying the market on any dip I have no interest in joining them preferring to patiently wait for a decent correction first before putting some money to work on the long side. Therefore, I will continue to be a small buyer on any large dip lower to 5606/5622 with the same 5589 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5645. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro fell shy of my initial 1.1230 sell level with a 1.1215 high print before falling over 80 points into the New York close. Ahead of the huge number of Fed speakers including Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen I will not chase the market. The Euro has resistance from 1.1230/1.1300 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 1.1375 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in buying the Euro is on a large dip lower to 1.0980/1.1060 with a higher 1.0915 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.1180. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.1110.
Dollar Index
Frustratingly the Dollar missed yesterday’s buy range by 2 points before rallying over 60 points into the New York close. Today, I will now raise my buy level to 99.70/100.40 while leaving my wider 98.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 100.85.
Cash DAX
My DAX plan worked well. Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the DAX hit my 18960-sell level before selling off to my revised 18893 T/P level and I am now flat. I am astonished by the level of interest in buying the DAX despite the awful economic backdrop. This morning the DAX is trading 200 points higher from yesterday’s T/P level at 19100. The DAX has further resistance from 19160/19260 where I will again be a seller with a tight 19345 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 19070. I still do not want to be long the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the FTSE rallied to my 8270 T/P level on my latest 8230 long position and I am now flat. The FTSE has short-term support from 8130/8210 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 8065 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8260.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well as the market finally rallied to my initial 42300 sell level. Subsequently the Dow fell over 350 points. As I was now short four different Indexes, I covered my Dow short position at my revised 42180 T/P level and I am now flat. Hopefully you were able to get a better exit. Given the number of Fed speakers this afternoon I am expecting plenty of two-way price action. There is no need for us to take huge risk as we are having an excellent month so far. Today my only interest in selling the Dow is still on a rally higher to 42370/42620 with a higher 42805 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 42190.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Wow! Yesterday the NDX hit my 19960-sell level before surging overnight on the Chinese stimulus announcement to hit my second sell level at 20090. I am now short at an average rate of 20025. So far, I am offside on this position with the NDX trading at 20230 as I go to press. As we are having an excellent month, I will now raise my ‘’Closing Stop’’ to 20305. I will also raise my T/P level to 19980 hoping that most of last night’s Chicago Gap is filled this afternoon. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
No Change: The boring sideways price action in the Bund shows no sign of ending. I am still flat. Given how weak the Dollar is I will now raise my Bund sell level to 135.30/136.10 with a higher 136.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be a buyer of the Bund at this time. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 134.80.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Given how overbought Gold is trading at this time I will not chase the market higher. I am not brave enough to out on a short position given the geo-political risk from the Middle East. Gold has short-term support from 2570/2588. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip to this area with the same 2559 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2602.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat as I continue to look to buy Silver on any dip lower to 30.30/31.30 with the same 28.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 32.10.
Please Note: There will no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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