Following a wild trading session, U.S. Equity Markets closed lower across-the board with the Dow leading the move, closing lower by 0.77%. However, Futures markets have soared in after hours following the results from Nvidia. During a conference at the Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasised the importance for U.S. banks to be ready to borrow from the Federal Reserve’s discount window on a regular basis. She also stressed the need for the Fed to ensure that loans can be accessed at any time, considering the evolving speed of banking and transactions. According to a recently released paper by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard, a former International Monetary Fund chief economist, the Federal Reserve still has work to do in order to bring inflation down. Despite a recent cooling of inflation, the Fed may need to take further action to address the issue. Jensen Huang, chief executive of Nvidia (NVDA), the world’s most valuable semiconductor company, warned lawmakers in Washington that the U.S. tech industry is at risk of ‘enormous damage’ if the ongoing economic cold war between itself and China persisted. Huang added that China would just bring chip development in house in the absence of U.S. firms in its market – which would be a major blow for the tech industry. Apple (AAPL) signed a new multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom (AVGO) to develop 5G component parts for its cellular devices. The collaboration will be based within the U.S. and is part of a broader domestic investment initiative from Apple that was announced in 2021. Netflix (NFLX) is cracking down on account sharing in the U.S. and has introduced new account sharing add-ons for customers. Those who share their passwords will have the option to continue sharing for an extra $8 per month. This option is available only for customers on the $15.50 standard plan and $20 premium plan, with the aim of encouraging individual subscriptions and limiting account sharing to within households. PacWest Bancorp (PACW), in an effort to boost confidence in the bank, has agreed to sell its real-estate lending arm. Roc360, a real-estate lending firm, will acquire PacWest’s Civic Financial Services unit, which focuses on lending to landlords and investors involved in purchasing and renovating homes for resale. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) raised its revenue forecasts as customers have opted to bundle cybersecurity needs with one provider as they attempt to reduce costs. While the firm admitted the current state of the market has worsened since the start of the year, it said that it expects demand headwinds to ease significantly heading into 2024. European Markets closed lower. In April, U.K. inflation experienced a significant decline, primarily due to the retreat of energy prices. The Office for National Statistics reported that headline CPI inflation stood at 8.7% year-on-year, a decrease from the 10.1% recorded in March. Although this figure surpassed the consensus estimate of 8.2% from a Reuters poll of economists, it still indicates a notable drop in inflationary pressures. In Asia, the latest Reuters Tankan poll reveals encouraging developments in the Japanese economy. For the first time this year, there has been a shift towards positive business sentiment among major manufacturers. This indicates growing optimism within the manufacturing sector, which is a crucial driver of Japan’s economy. Furthermore, the service sector has also witnessed an improvement in morale, reaching its highest point in five months. The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain its policy rate for the third consecutive meeting amid concerns over inflation and a slowdown in economic growth. All 17 economists surveyed anticipate that the central bank will keep the seven-day repurchase rate at 3.5%, the level it has been since January. Additionally, the Bank of Korea will provide updated forecasts for important economic indicators, including growth and inflation. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.70% while Gold fell 0.80% following another volatile trading session.

To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 65 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2497 points for May. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.73% lower at a price of 4115.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 255 points lower for a 0.77% loss at a price of 32,800.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.50% lower at a price of 13,604.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.87% lower.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.60% lower.

Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.89% lower at a price of 30,682.

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.40% higher.

The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.0749.

The British Pound closed 0.5% lower at 1.2364.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.6% closing at $139.43.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.48%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points higher at 4.21%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 3 basis points higher at 3.75%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.70% higher at $73.30 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.80% lower at $1969.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have German GFK Consumer Confidence and GDP at 7.00 am. This is followed at 10.00 am by a speech from ECB Member De Guindos. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Finally, we have Pending Home Sales at 3.00 pm and the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 4.00 pm.

Cash S&P 500

My S&P plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 4108-buy level before rallying over 23 Handles. As I had so many open positions, I covered this trade too early at 4114 and I am still flat. With the internal markets so oversold I am happy to be a buyer of the S&P on dips. We have support from 4090/4105 where I will be a strong buyer with the same 4079 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be short the S&P at this time.

EUR/USD

No Change. I am still long from Tuesday at 1.0770 with the same 1.0820 T/P level. I will add to this position at 1.0700 while leaving my 1.0635 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.

June Dollar Index

No Change. I am still a small seller from 103.95/104.65 with the same 105.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time.

Cash DAX

The DAX hit a low at 15800 yesterday afternoon – over 500 points below last Monday’s high. This is the move that I was looking for but unfortunately my timing was off by a couple of days having exited Friday’s 16270 short position on Tuesday at 16163. I am still flat as thankfully we had no buy levels in yesterday’s commentary. The DAX has resistance from 15980/16080. I will lower my sell level to this area with a tight 16205 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash FTSE

The FTSE had its worst day in many weeks, falling over 1.50%. This move lower saw the whole of my small buy range triggered for a now 7660 average long position. I will leave my 7585 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 7700.

Dow Rolling Contract

The Dow hit my second buy level at 33850 for a now 32955 average long position. With the $NYSI and $SPBPX maximum oversold I am comfortable with my long Dow position. If the Bank Index can find some buyers, then the Dow should quickly appreciate. I will leave my 32695 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 33080. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Cash NASDAQ 100

Unfortunately, I was a couple of days early looking for an aggressive sell-off in the NDX. At yesterday’s 13520 low print the NDX was over 400 points below Monday’s 2023 YoY high print. This move lower saw my 13625-exit level triggered on my 13495 short position and I am now flat. The 14-Day RSI closed at 60 last night-well off the Monday’s 73 high print. Huge results from Nvidia after the close see their share price up a massive 18% driven by A.I. Chip demand. As a result, the NDX is trading 200 points higher so in hindsight we were correct to exit yesterday at a loss. The NDX has resistance from 13830/13980 where I will again be a seller with a wider 14105 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given how overbought the NDX is trading I still do not want to be long the market at this time.

June BUND

My Bund plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 133.60 buy level before rallying to my 134.20 T/P level and I am now flat. The Bund has strong support from 132.60/133.30 where I will again be a buyer with a 131.95 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Gold Rolling Contract

My Gold plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 1957 buy level before rallying to my 1964.50 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Gold continues to find strong resistance at the $2000 area. However, I still do not want to be short Gold. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1932/1947 with a wider 1919 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Silver Rolling Contract

Although Silver fell 2% yesterday my second buy level at 22.70 was not touched. I am still long at 23.40 with the same no stop. I will now lower my T/P level to 24.00. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members. No Change. I am still long at 23.40 with the same no stop. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further dip lower to 22.70. I will leave my 24.20 T/P level unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.