U.S. Equity Markets fell hard after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in its meeting yesterday and pointed toward rate cuts in 2024 as forward guidance remained relatively unchanged. The Small Cap Russell 2000 led the decline closing lower by almost 3%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the economy will not work for anyone as long as higher inflation remains, and he reiterated the central bank’s sole commitment to quelling inflation despite other emerging economic concerns. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the American Bankers Association that the government would intervene if a run-on deposit created additional banking system risk. Within the S&P 500 Index, all 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed higher. U.K. CPI unexpectedly rose in February, keeping pressure on the Bank of England (“BOE”) raise interest rates even more. ECB Governor Joachim Nagel said that the central bank must remain firm on rates as inflation is currently the Euro-Zone’s primary economic problem. U.K. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt stated that the Bank of England should remain focused on inflation, despite the recent turmoil in the global financial sector. ECB Supervisory Board Chair Andrea Enria said it is not considering placing restrictions on buybacks or dividends for banks. In Asia, Japanese Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto said the government may spend up to $15 billion to shield households from inflation. Chinese President Xi Jinping called for increased trade, investment, and economic cooperation with Russia while meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. China’s interbank overnight repurchase rate hit its highest level in two years as households and businesses experienced a cash squeeze ahead of the Quarter’s End. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.53% while a much weaker Dollar saw Gold close higher by 1.81%.
To mark my 2750th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 64 points yesterday and is now ahead by 5091 points for March after finishing February with a gain of 3164 points, after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 1.65% lower at a price of 3936
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 530 points lower for a 1.63% loss at a price of 32,030.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.37% lower at a price of 12,537.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.15% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.64%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 1.93% higher at a price of 27,466.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.70% lower.
The Euro closed 0.9% higher at $1.0875.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at 1.2271.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.7% closing at $131.35.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points lower at 2.28%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 9 basis points higher at 3.45%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 17 basis points lower at 3.45%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.53% higher at $70.05 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.81% higher at $1968.10 an ounce.
This afternoon on the Economic Front we have the Bank of England Rate Decision at 12.00 pm. This is followed at 12.30 pm by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, Current Account and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. At 2.00 pm we have New Home Sales and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 3.00 pm. Finally, we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence and a speech from ECB Member Lane at the same time.
Cash S&P 500
I mentioned at length in my Daily Commentary yesterday that Fed Chair Powell had only one job yesterday to get the banks to rally. Yet again he failed miserably as the Bank Index closed near last week’s low with a 5% decline. His opening comments were aimed at low balling the extent of the banking crisis with the S&P rallying hard, hitting at high at 4039. Subsequently Treasury Secretary pulled the rug under Powell by saying they are not considering a broad increase in deposit insurance and that was that as the S&P fell over 100 Handles into the close. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range filled for a now 3950 average long position. I would prefer to see the Banks stabilise to justify a long position but we did hit trend support before having a small rally as I go to press. The 200 Day Moving Average comes in at 3934 which was yesterday’s low. With the 14-Day RSI for the Bank Index closing at 26 I certainly do not want to be short. Despite the huge rally in the S&P this week the $NYSI is still maximum oversold for the third consecutive week which is another reason not to be short. I will have a T/P level on this position at 3962 as I want to protect this month’s huge gains. I will leave my 3919 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
I am still flat as the Euro rallied a further 0.8% following the Fed’s latest 0.5% increase. The Euro has resistance from 1.0960/1.1030 where I will be a small seller with a 1.1095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 1.0690/1.0760 with a higher 1.0615 ‘’ Closing Stop’’.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar. I will leave 103.95/104.65 sell level unchanged with the same 105.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
I am still flat the DAX as the market fell shy of my initial buy level ahead of the New York Close. As I am now long both the S&P and Dow I will now lower my DAX buy level to 14840/14940 with a lower 14765 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat. Just like the DAX above I will now lower my FTSE buy level to 7350/7430 with a lower 7285 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 7490.
Dow Rolling Contract
As I was long the S&P, I waited to buy the Dow which I did at a price of 32180. I will add to this position on any further move lower to 31920 while leaving my 31795 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. The 200 Day Moving Average is above current prices at 32367. As a result I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 32290. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The NDX had rallied over 10% in a week before finally seeing some profit-taking on the Yellen comments. With Treasury Yields falling 14 basis points yesterday this should help cushion any serious sell-off in tech stocks. The NDX has support from 12320/12470. I will now lower my buy level to this area with a lower 12195 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
June BUND
My Bund plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 135.20 buy level before rallying to my 135.84 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 134.60/135.40 with the same wider 133.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Given the recent 500 point in the Bund I do not want to be short the market at this time.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat as Gold again missed my buy range before rallying $30 on Yellen. Gold has resistance from 2002/2022 where I will be a small seller with a 2035 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in buying Gold is still on a dip lower to 1905/1920 with a wider 1889 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver from last month at a price of 23.10. Silver rallied yesterday, sitting at 22.90 as I go to press. I will leave my 21.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now have a T/P level at 23.70 on this position. If any of the above changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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