U.S. Equity Markets ultimately closed mixed on Wednesday with markets chopping to geopolitics on a data light day ahead of NVDA earnings after-hours, although stocks did rally into the closing bell – closing well off lows. There had been some initial optimism in the European morning on reports that Russian President Putin is open to talking about a Ukraine ceasefire with US President-elect Trump. However, risk off was later seen in wake of Bloomberg reports that Ukraine fired a UK storm shadow missile into Russia, weighing on stocks and supporting T-Notes off lows. In stocks, sectors were mixed with outperformance in Health Care, Energy and Materials, while Consumer Discretionary, Technology and Financials lagged. Consumer Discretionary was hit on a woeful Target (TGT) report, which saw the stock close over 20% lower. T-Notes sold off paring some of the geopolitical induced upside on Tuesday, but caught a bid on reports of the aforementioned Ukraine attack on Russia ahead of the 20 Year Treasury Auction. The auction was ultimately very soft, tailing by 3bps, which saw Treasuries head lower into settlement with the curve bear flattening. In FX, the Dollar outperformed with higher yields supporting the move and perhaps a return of the Trump trade dynamic while Antipodes, Euro and the Japanese Yen lagged. Gold was bid despite the upside in yields and the Dollar while crude prices settled lower with notable weakness seen throughout the afternoon. Elsewhere, UK CPI was hotter than expected, but Bank of England Member Ramsden said it was only marginally above the BoE forecast and it has not changed his assessment on the economic outlook. Meanwhile, Fed Governors Cook and Bowman spoke. Cook towed a neutral line and kept all options on the table, while Bowman was her hawkish self-calling for a cautious approach, noting how she sees greater risks to the price stability mandate. She also was concerned that the Fed is recalibrating policy but has not yet reached the inflation goal – stressing the need for Fed flexibility. Collins spoke on the closing bell, largely keeping her options open. I will get more into last night’s post-bell earnings report from Nvidia (NVDA) tomorrow. But the quick-and-dirty report as we go to press this morning is that the AI darling beat Wall Street expectations for quarterly revenue by about $2 billion… and expects to keep growing. The company’s record $35.1 billion of revenue was up 17% from the second quarter. Almost $31 billion came from data-centre revenue, a line item that more than doubled compared to a year prior thanks to strong AI demand. Plus, Nvidia is projecting fourth-quarter revenue of around $37.5 billion. In other words, it was another earnings beat for Nvidia. All is well, they say. More than well, actually. “The age of AI is in full steam,” Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang said in announcing the earnings results. Elsewhere, Oil closed 0.65% lower while despite a stronger Dollar, Gold ended Wednesday with a gain of 0.63%
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 240 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2306 points for November having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.13% higher at a price of 5917.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 139 points higher for a 0.32% gain at a price of 43,408.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.08% lower at a price of 20,667.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.03% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% lower.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.16% lower at a price of 38,352.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.46% higher.
The Euro closed 0.45% lower at $1.0540.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2643.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4% closing at $155.40.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher 2.36%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 4.47%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 1 basis points higher at 4.41%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.65% lower at $68.95 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.63% higher at $2648 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing at 7.00 am, followed by U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey at 1.30 pm. Next, we have Existing Home Sales and Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence at 3.00 pm. At 4.00 pm we have the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index. Finally, we have speeches from Fed Members Hammock, Goolsbee, Schmid and Barr at 1.45 pm, 5.25 pm, 5.40 pm and 9.40 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
The idea of just buying dips in the S&P continues to pay dividends despite the overvaluations. Yesterday the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 5876 average long position before rallying 60 Handles off its 5860-afternoon low into the Chicago close. Unfortunately, I covered this position at my revised 5884 T/P level and I am now flat. As we approach the seasonally strong Thanksgiving Week next week I will continue with the same theme. I am conscious that one of these sell-off’s will be stronger than expected but given how oversold some of my technical signals are I am prepared to take the risk. The S&P has support from 5872/5888 where I will again be a buyer with the same 5859 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5904. I still do not want to be short the S&P at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change: I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0665. Given how oversold the Euro I will continue to hold this position with no stop for now. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.0710. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
No Change: I am still short the Dollar at an average rate of 105.85. This morning the Dollar is trading higher at 106.60. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 105.60 while leaving my 106.85 ‘’Closing Price’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash DAX
No Change: I am still flat the DAX, scared to buy and reluctant to chase the market lower. This was the opening to my DAX commentary on Thursday. The DAX keeps breaking lower only to find aggressive buying despite Germany been both a political and economic mess. I still have no edge in this market preferring to concentrate on the other four Indices until a decent low risk opportunity arises. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
My latest 8060 long FTSE position worked well as the market rallied to my 8130 T/P level yesterday morning. Given how oversold the FTSE is trading I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the market again which I did at a price of 8080. I am still long with the same 8140 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move lower to 8010 while leaving my 7935 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly, the Dow missed yesterday’s buy range by just 75 points before turning around and rallying over 300 points into the close. This rally came against a backdrop of a 20% fall in Target Share price following poor earnings. Again ‘’Nothing Matters’’ as any sell-off for now continues to attract strong buying. The Dow has support from 42750/43000 where I will continue to be a small buyer with the same tight 42595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 43240. I still no longer want to be short the Dow at this time.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 20420-buy level before rallying over 300 points on the bounce back in NVIDIA shares into the Chicago close. This move higher saw my revised 20510 T/P level triggered and I am still flat. I am reluctant to chase the NDX higher especially ahead of the weekend. We have support from 20250/20450 where I will again be an aggressive buyer with the same wider 19995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 20620.
December BUND
The Bund traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. The Bund has support below from 130.80/131.50 where I will again be a buyer with the same tight 130.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 132.00.
Gold Rolling Contract
Just like both Bitcoin and the American Indexes, Gold continues to attract large scale buying on any dip. This morning Gold is trading $40 higher from where I marked prices early yesterday morning. As I have large, long position in Silver my only interest in buying Gold is still on a further dip lower to 2564/2580 with a lower 2549 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2593.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still long Silver at an average rate of 32.30 from early last week with the same 29.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now leave my T/P level unchanged at 32.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Please Note: There will no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.
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