U.S. Equity Markets surged yesterday as investors piled into the undervalued underlying market. This move higher saw the VIX get crushed, closing lower by 6.25% at a price of 16.87. A 5% rally in the Bank Index helped the Dow to lead yesterday’s gains, closing higher by 1.24%. The National Association of Home Builders (“NAHB”) reported the housing market index rose to a reading of 50 in May, up from 45 in April. (Any reading above 50 is considered a net positive.) Despite several headwinds for the housing industry, homebuilders are becoming more confident due to the severe existing-homes shortage. Builders believe this will eventually lead to a surge in demand for new home projects. OpenAI’s Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman and IBM’s (IBM) Chief Privacy Officer Christina Montgomery called on senators Tuesday to consider a faster response to the emergence of artificial intelligence (“AI”). The two warned that significant risks could arise regarding ethical, legal, and national security issues if regulations are not put in place soon enough.  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester affirmed the central bank can stabilise prices – but it cannot do much about the below-trend economic growth in the long run. Mester asserted that quelling high inflation was a de-facto prerequisite for the return of a healthy economy. Target’s (TGT) first quarter earnings beat estimates, but management warned about a continued softening of consumer demand. Discretionary purchases saw a continued pullback which hurt the retailer’s sales growth and paved the way for lower guidance heading into the next quarter. European Markets closed lower. Only after the European Markets close did the American Indexes start yesterday’s large rally. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said he was unwavering in his commitment to bringing inflation back to the 2% annual growth target rate. Bailey warned that higher food prices and a tighter labour marker are proving to be real headwinds for the central bank. Adding that the need for further tightening would be dictated by continuing evidence of persistent pricing pressures. In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, Spain’s Energy Minister Teresa Ribera said that the European Union is ready to ban imports of liquefied natural gas (“LNG”) from Russia sooner than later. The decision comes following recent bans on Russian crude oil and oil products as Europe continues its efforts to limit Russia’s energy export revenue. In Asia, Wall Street giants, including Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), are scaling back their expansion plans and profit goals in China as the business climate weakens and geopolitical tensions rise. Many banks are also considering further job cuts, with some already reducing China-dedicated headcount earlier this year. The situation marks a stark reversal in strategy for many Wall Street firms, which were previously committed to taking on China’s banks and grab a larger share of its $60 trillion financial market. More investors are concerned about a sizable and sustained slowdown in the world economy due to multiple economic indicators from China and Germany from the past week. While the U.S. has done its best to stave off disaster thus far, a tightening credit landscape amidst high interest rates could be the final domino to topple the world into a recession. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2.90% while Gold fell 0.40%.

To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 35 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2480 points for May. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 


The S&P 500 closed 1.19% higher at a price of 4158.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 408 points lower for a 1.24% gain at a price of 33,420.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.22% higher at a price of 13,589.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.18% lower.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.40% lower.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.60% higher at a price of 30,574.


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.

The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.0838.

The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2470.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.8% closing at $137.58.


Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.35%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 3.85%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 4 basis points higher at 3.58%.


West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.90% higher at $72.64 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.40% lower at $1981.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have speeches from ECB Members De Guindos and President Lagarde at 7.30 am and 10.00 am respectively. This is followed by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Report Minutes at 10.15 am. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Jefferson at 2.05 pm and Existing Home Sales at 3.00 pm.

Cash S&P 500

I have done a lot of reading over the past few days. One chart that stood out was the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index. This chart indicates that conditions are still loose, yet Interest Rates have risen to 2008 levels which was the last time that this chart showed liquidity tightening.  Despite the words from Fed officials to the contrary the Fed are continuing to pump money into the system. The Fed’s Balance sheet is only half a trillion dollars below its $9 trillion peak. In my opinion the Liquidity Drain is not happening. History tells us that when we have these conditions that the S&P soars. This also explains why despite awful economic reports out of Germany that the DAX is at all-time highs. The Fed cannot afford a stock market crash as the latest TAX Receipts are way down due to lack of CGT gains from last year’s falling markets. The frustrating chop continues as traders look for direction. With the underlying market so weak any meaningful sell-off in the Dow or S&P will quickly be reversed as all Indexes will be outside the bottom of their Daily Bollinger Bands. One more down week will see both the $NYSI and $BPSPX maximum oversold. This partially explains yesterday’s aggressive rally. Thankfully we had no short positions and were not spooked by the fact that the Dow closed below its 50-Day MA on Tuesday night. I am still flat as unfortunately the S&P just missed my 4103-buy level. I will now raise my buy level to 4120/4135 with a tight 4107 ‘’Closing Stop’’. This level is just below yesterday’s low print. My only interest in selling the S&P is from 4235/4250 where I will be an aggressive seller with no stop or T/P level.


The Euro hit my initial buy level at 1.0810. As I wanted to bank some points for yesterday I covered this position at my revised 1.0845 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0720/1.0790 with a lower 1.0645 ”Closing Stop”.

June Dollar Index

The Dollar rallied a further 0.40% yesterday, trading at 102.85 as I go to press. This 1.5% rally this week means the Dollar is now short-term overbought. We have resistance from 103.40/104.00 where I will be a seller with a 104.55 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 101.50/102.10 with the same 100.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash DAX

This morning the DAX traded higher to my 16030-sell level. I am still short with a now higher 15950 T/P level. Given the fact that the DAX is trading 11% above its 200-Day Moving Average I am comfortable with my short position. I will add to this trade at 16120 while leaving my 16205 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.


I am still flat. The FTSE is trading unchanged from where I marked prices 24 hours ago despite the surge in American Indexes. I will not chase the FTSE higher leaving my 7600/7670 buy level unchanged with the same 7545 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

The break and close below the 50-Day Moving Average on Tuesday was a false break as the Dow surged yesterday. This vertical move higher had no two-way price discovery. This has been the norm all year for any rally. The Dow has support from 32950/33200. I will raise my buy level to this area with a higher 32795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Bank Index closed 5% higher last night. I will talk more about the Bank Index in tomorrow’s commentary. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.

Cash NASDAQ 100

Yesterdays across the board surge saw the NDX hit my second sell level at 13570 for a now 13495 average short position. Given how overbought the NDX is trading this is the only market that I am comfortable in being short. I will leave my 13705 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 13380. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.


No Change I am still long the Bund from Tuesday morning at 135.60. I will add to this position at 134.80 while leaving my 134.45 ‘’Closing Price’’ unchanged. I will also lower my T/P level to 136.00. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold hit my second buy level at 1980 for a now 1988 average long position. I will leave my 1969 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 1995. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Silver Rolling Contract

Unfortunately, Silver just missed yesterday’s buy level and I am still flat. I will leave my 22.70/23.40 buy level unchanged with no stop. If executed I will have a T/P level at 24.20.