U.S. Equity Markets spiked on yesterday’s Federal Reserve announcement, finishing the day higher, led by the Dow which closed with a gain of 0.58%. The Federal Reserve was the big story of the day. Up until the afternoon announcement, markets drifted lower. But equities spiked on the Fed’s release. The Fed left Interest Rates and its Asset Purchase Programme unchanged, while boosting its economic outlook for 2021. The central bank also projected a brief pickup in inflation as well as a decrease in the U.S.’s Unemployment ate. In his post-policy press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that it was not time to talk about tapering bond purchases. And he said that the pickup in inflation predicted for 2021 will be brief, with inflation falling back down close to 2% in 2022 and 2023. He reiterated that policy will not change until the Fed sees substantial progress on its employment and inflation mandates. Meanwhile, Housing Starts and Building Permits fell and missed estimates, though both measures remain elevated on a historical basis. European Markets declined. European Central Bank executive board member Isabel Schnabel said the European Union’s (“EU”) recovery fund may not be enough, adding that the EU should focus on spending money to support the region. The U.K.’s medical regulator said that after a review of AstraZeneca’s (AZN) COVID-19 vaccine, no evidence was found linking it to recent reports of blood clots. The EU will propose a COVID-19 travel certificate for people that have been vaccinated. Germany’s economic advisers also lowered their growth forecasts for 2021 from 3.7% to 3.1%, indicating that the resurgence of COVID-19 infections could weigh on the country moving forward. Elsewhere, Oil fell 0.35% after the IEA said that oil demand wouldn’t reach pre-pandemic levels until 2023, while Gold rose 0.69 % on Dollar weakness following the FOMC Statement release.

To mark my 2275th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 186 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2264 points for March, having closed February with an impressive gain of 3286 points, having made 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

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Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.29% higher at a price of 3974.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 200 points higher for a 0.58% gain at a price of 33,015.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.38% higher at a price of 13,202.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% lower.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3%.

This morning the Nikkei closed 1.01% higher at a price of 30,216.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.

The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.1971.

The British Pound closed 1.1%higher at $1.3981.

The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% higher at 108.81 per dollar.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed six basis points higher at -0.27%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at 0.83%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed eight basis points higher at 1.69%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.35% lower at $62.61 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.69% higher at $1,747.80 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Trade Balance at 10.00 am, followed by a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 11.00 am. Next, we have the Bank of England Rate decision at 12.00 pm. At 12.30 pm we have the U.S Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Finally, we have speeches from ECB Members De Guindos and Schnabel at 1.10 pm and 6.00 pm respectively.

June S&P 500

My Short 3960 S&P position worked well with the market trading to a low of 3925.25 since my last Commentary on Tuesday, enabling me to cover this position at 3952 and I am now flat. Frustratingly, the S&P missed my 3925 buy level before surging to a new all-time high overnight at 3977.50. With 10 -Year Treasuries spiking to 1.70% both the S&P and NASDAQ have reversed these overnight gains. The S&P is now trading at 3950. We have support from 3921/3936 where I will be a buyer ahead of tomorrow’s March Expiration (1.35 pm) with a 3908 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I am still expecting a meaningful correction next week once we get the Quadruple Expiration out of the way tomorrow. In my opinion, valuations are at extreme levels, higher than both the 2000 and 1987 crashes. One key analyst that I respect is expecting a total return for the S&P 500 to underperform the lowly yield on Treasury Bonds by roughly -6% over the coming 12-year period, indicating a 70% fall for the S&P. The S&P has resistance from 3975/3990 where I will be a seller with a 4004 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

EUR/USD

My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.1885 buy level before rallying 100 points post the release of the FOMC Statement. Unfortunately, I covered this position too early at 1.1906 and I am still flat. The Euro has support from 1.1875/1.1915 where I will again be a buyer with a 1.1839 stop.

June Dollar Index

I am still flat and I will now lower my sell level to 91.80/92.30 with a lower 92.65 stop.

June DAX

After the DAX hit my initial 14605 sell level we had a small sell-off. I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at my revised 14575 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning, the DAX is trading at yet another new all-time high at 14700. The DAX is severely overbought and has resistance from 14805/14905 where I will be a seller with a 15001 stop. I will now raise my buy level to 14500/14580 with a 14435 tight stop.

June FTSE

The FTSE has traded in a narrow range over the past 48 hours and I am still flat. I will now lower my buy level to 6615/6665 with a lower 6569 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

The Dow rallied to yet another all-time closing high following yesterday’s dovish FOMC Statement. Just before last night’s close I emailed my Platinum Members to raise their Dow sell level to a price of 31130 which was filled earlier this morning. I am still short and I will add to this trade at 31300 with the same 31425 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 33020 and if any of the above levels are filled I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

June NASDAQ

My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading the whole of Tuesday’s sell range for a 13215 average short position. Subsequently the NASDAQ fell nearly 300 points. Unfortunately, I covered this position at 13195 and I am still flat. Overnight, the NASDAQ rallied to a high of 13260 before falling 200 points on the break higher on Treasury Yields. The NASDAQ has strong support from 13020/12920 where I will be a buyer with a 12845 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of tomorrow’s expiration I do not want to be short the NASDAQ.

June BUND

My Bund plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 171.10 buy level before rallying to my 171.45 T/P level after the Powell press conference last night. This morning the Bund is opening lower, trading at 170.80. We have support from 169.80/170.30 where I will again be a buyer with a 169.35 stop.

Gold Rolling Contract

No Change as I am still a small buyer from 1698/1712 with a 1689 stop.

Silver Rolling Contract

I am still flat. I will now raise my buy  level to 24.90/25.60 with a higher 24.35 stop.