U.S. Equity Markets closed lower yesterday, despite strong economic data. The Russell 2000 led the declines, closing lower by 0.78% while the Dow booked the trend, closing at a new all-time high with a gain of 0.29%. Retail Sales rose 5.3% from the month prior, according to data from the Census Bureau. That beat the expectation for a 1.3% gain. January’s Retail Sales also marked the first increase for the data point after three straight months of decline. Vaccine supply may have given an area for concern. The White House’s vaccine czar said that Johnson & Johnson only has a few million doses in its stockpile. That sparked fears that an approval would not provide an immediate boost to the vaccine supply. The Federal Reserve’s Minutes from the January meeting showed that the central bank sees it taking a while before the economy reaches its goals. This suggests that it won’t pull support from the economy anytime soon. European Markets closed lower after a volatile trading session. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said the country must use the European Union Recovery Fund in order to boost economic activity. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen discussed ways to boost jobs and growth, pointing toward more coordinated policy efforts. Pfizer and BioNTech agreed to supply the European Union with an additional 200 million doses of their COVID-19 vaccine by the end of the second quarter, boosting supply. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 22.5 million yesterday, with a daily average of 679,000 doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil continued its relentless move higher closed with a gain of 2%, as cold weather through the Midwest sparked an increase in demand for heat, while Gold fell 1.38% on continued Dollar strength.

To mark my 2250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 184 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1742 points for February, having finished January with a gain of 2077 points, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

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Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.03% lower at a price of 3931.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 90 points higher for a 0.29% gain at a price of 31,613.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.54% lower at a price of 13,700.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.8% lower.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.

This morning the Nikkei closed 0.19% lower at a price of 30,236.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.

The Euro closed 0.4% lower at $1.2051.

The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at $1.3856.

The Japanese Yen closed 0.2% higher at 105.84 per dollar.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.36%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points lower at 0.57%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed three basis points lower at 1.27%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2% higher at $60.91 a barrel.

Gold closed 1.38% lower unchanged at $1,771.20 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have a speech from Bank of England Member Saunders at 11.00 am. This is followed at 12.30 pm by the Minutes from last month’s ECB Meeting. At 1.30 pm we have the U.S Weekly Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, Import/Export Price Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits, Finally, at 3.00 pm we have Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence and a speech from ECB Member Schnabel at 4.15 pm.

March S&P 500

My S&P plan worked well yesterday with the market trading lower to my 3903 buy level before rallying to my 3916 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P rallied to close at 3929 before selling off overnight to sit at 3916 as I go to press. Internally the market is weak with the McClellan Oscillator closing in negative territory with a -15 print. The S&P may rally  into March but we are close to a major sell-off in the US Indices as the S&P is now trading a huge 520 Handles above its 200-Day Moving  Average which comes in at 3412. Today, I will be a small buyer from 3880/3895 with a 3867 stop. If the S&P can break and close below 3890 then we may have seen at least a short-term top. I will now lower my sell level to 3945/3960 with a lower 3971 stop.

EUR/USD

The Euro traded lower to my 1.2050 buy level which is no surprise given the Interest Rate differential between 10-Year Treasuries and the German Bund. I will add to this trade at 1.2010 while leaving my stop unchanged at 1.1985. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.2070. The Euro has resistance from 1.2090/1.2140 and I will be a seller in this area with a 1.2175 stop which is just above Tuesday’s high print. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 1.2055.

March Dollar Index

No Change. I am still short at 90.55 and will continue to add to this trade at 91.05 with the same 91.31 tight stop. I will now raise my T/P level to 90.40.

March DAX

The DAX has strong support from 13730/13810 and I will be a buyer in this area with a 13675 tight stop.

March FTSE

The FTSE traded the whole of yesterday’s range for a now 6675 average long position. I am still long and I will now lower my T/P level to 6685, while at the same time raising my stop to 6626.

Dow Rolling Contract

The Dow has made three new closing highs  in the past three trading sessions, with the most recent two occurring with negative breadth. Yesterday’s 31643 high was not confirmed by the S&P or the NASDAQ, while the NYSE Advance/Decline ratio was negative for the whole session. In my opinion this is behaviour that is compatible with an advance that is at or near an end. For the Dow to break lower it must close below 31150. I am still flat the Dow and today I will be a small buyer from 31250/31380 with a 31125 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will leave my 31770/31950 sell level unchanged with the same 32125 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

March NASDAQ

My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 13640 buy level before rallying to my 13685 revised T/P level and I am still flat. The NASDAQ has strong support from 13495/13565 where I will again be a buyer with a 13425 stop. I will now lower my sell level to 13790/13880 with a lower 13975 stop.

March BUND

When the US Bond Market did not sell-off after the much higher than expected Retail Sales release it was a signal to exit any short Bond positions. After the Bund traded higher to my 175.05 sell level I covered this position for a tiny gain at 174.96 and I am still flat. The Bund has support from 174.10/174.60 where I will be a buyer with a 173.75 stop.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold just missed my 1760 buy level with a 1767 low print and I am still flat. Gold has support at the November low of 1763. I will now raise my buy level to 1750/1765 with a 1739 stop.

Silver Rolling Contract

The disparity between Gold and Silver is becoming more pronounced as Silver has traded sideways for most of the past few weeks while Gold has fallen 5%. I am still flat Silver and today I leave my 26.00/26.60 buy level unchanged with the same 25.65 stop.