U.S. Equity Markets were volatile as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, ending the day lower, led by the Dow which fell 0.77%, as the VIX rose to close 7% higher at a price of 18.15. Markets were “on hold” for much of the day as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s announcement. Early in the afternoon, Building Permits and Housing Starts for May missed expectations, but remained at historically elevated levels. Then, in the evening, the Fed held interest rates and its asset purchases steady. But the “dot plot” showed that Fed presidents were predicting two rate hikes by 2023 (versus the previous expectation of none). The central bank also said that it sees inflation above 3% this year, before coming back down near 2% next year. This is what sent markets lower immediately after the announcement. In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy still has a long way to go toward making “substantial progress” on its goals. That indicates that support will remain in place for the time being. This is what helped markets rally somewhat, before selling off again into the close. European Markets again closed higher. U.K. Consumer Price Index data for May came in at 2.1%, topping the Bank of England’s 2% target for the first time since 2019. European Central Bank Supervisory Board Chairman Andrea Enria said it hopes to lift the cap on bank dividends soon, but does not expect huge increases. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said there is a light at the end of the tunnel for the Euro-Zone economy, adding that the central bank will remove support slowly. In Asia, Japan’s export orders for May grew less than anticipated, but rose versus April, hitting the highest level since 1980, as shipments to the U.S. and Europe continued to surge. Beijing was said to consider releasing commodity stockpiles onto the open market in an attempt to subdue speculation and rein in rising costs. China’s industrial production data for May were weaker than expected, with the rate of growth slowing versus April, possibly signalling near-term demand has peaked. India’s trade deficit for May was slightly weaker than expected, as the rate of export growth slowed versus April, given the more difficult year-over-year comparisons. Elsewhere, Gold fell 1.31% as the Federal Reserve signalled an interest rate hike sooner than expected, while Bitcoin fell 4% on little news.
To mark my 2325th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on email@example.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 145 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1424 points for June having made 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, having ended March with an impressive gain of 3769 points, 3286 points in February, 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September and 2383 points in August. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
The S&P 500 closed 0.54% lower at a price of 4223.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 265 points lower for a 0.77% loss at a price of 34,033.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.34% lower at a price of 13,983.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.2% higher.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.51% lower at a price of 29,291.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.9% higher.
The Euro closed 1% lower at $1.2008.
The British Pound closed 0.9% lower at 1.3988.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4%, closing at $110.62.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at -0.25%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at 0.75%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed eight basis points higher at 1.58%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.33% lower at $71.95 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.31% lower at $1,838.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone CPI and Construction Output at 10.00 am. This is followed by U.S Weekly Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Survey at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from the ECB’s Lane at 1.45 pm.
June S&P 500
After the S&P traded the whole of my buy range for a 4221 average long position we made a low of 4202 before the market surged 30 Handles, enabling me to cover this position at my 4228 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Yesterday, was another example why I will not use a fixed stop in the US Indexes, preferring to see where we close at 9.00 pm. This morning the S&P is selling off as I post this commentary. However, until we break and close below 4190 I am reluctant to go short as we still have one more day’s trading in the June Contract before it expires at 2.35 pm tomorrow. I will be a small buyer from 4175/4190 with a 4163 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has resistance from 4238/4253 and I will now lower my sell level to this area with a 4267 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4203. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4228.
My latest 1.2130 long Euro position did not work well as I was stopped out of this position on the FOMS Statement release at 1.2055 and I am still flat. The Euro is trading lower at 1.1990 as I go to press. The Euro has strong support from 1.1870/1.1920 where I will again be a buyer with a 1.1825 stop. The Euro has resistance from 1.2050/1.2100 where I will be a small seller with a 1.2135 stop.
September Dollar Index
The Dollar surged 1% and I am still flat as thankfully I had no sell level in yesterday’s commentary. I will now raise my buy level to 90.50/90.95 with a 89.95 stop.
I have now rolled to the September Contract which trades at a small 20 point Discount to the June Contract. The DAX again held in yesterday despite the sell-off in the US Indexes. For me to turn bearish I need to see the DAX break and close below the key 15250/15320 support area. Today, I will be a buyer on any dip to this level with a 15195 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15365.
I have now rolled to the September Contract which trades at a 75 point Discount to the June Contract. The September Contract has support from 6920/6975 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 6885 tight stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Yesterday the Dow sold off to my 34010 buy level before rallying over 130 points, enabling me to cover this position at my 34090 revised T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. Even though the Dow has now broken an eight- month trend-line going back to October 30, 2020, I am reluctant to chase this market lower ahead of tomorrow’s Quadruple Expiration. On top of this, the Dow has now closed lower for eight consecutive trading sessions and is due a bounce. We have strong support from 33650/33800 where I will be a buyer with a 33495 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
I have now rolled to the September Contract which trades at a small 10 points Discount to the June Contract as the latter never came close to yesterday’s buy level and I am still flat. The September Contract has support from 13760/13660 where I will be a buyer with a 13595 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.
The Bund just missed my 172.95 sell level before following the US Treasuries lower into the New York close. I will now lower my sell level to 172.60/173.00 with a 173.35 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I was lucky as yesterday as after Gold traded lower to my initial 1832 buy level, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 1839 and I am now flat. After the close, Gold got hit hard and is now trading at 1809 as I go to press. Gold has strong support from 1785/1799 where I will again be a buyer with a 1773 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver followed Gold lower after the close, hitting my buy range and I am now long at 26.80. I will add to this trade at 26.30 while leaving my 25.95 stop unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 27.15 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.