The cooler-than-expected inflation data set the tone for the day with stocks closing well in the green with T-Notes firmer across the curve and the U.S. Dollar in the red. The softer-than-expected inflation metrics saw money markets revert to fully price in two 25bp rate cuts this year, albeit back to 1 after the Fed. The focus then turned to the FOMC, which saw rates left unchanged as expected, with only a slight tweak to the statement to acknowledge “modest further progress” on inflation, vs “lack of further progress” beforehand. The focus, however, was on the dot plot, which saw the median pencil in just one rate cut in 2024, on the more hawkish side of expectations while the 2025 dot was raised, 2026 was unchanged but the longer run median view ticked up. There was only a slight reaction, with the Dollar coming off lows and Treasuries off highs but stocks were quite resilient. Nonetheless, the pressure in bonds ensued with Powell’s press conference which largely stuck to the script although the Chair stressed, they need more confidence inflation is returning to target. Yields were still lower by c. 5-9bps across the curve and money markets now price in c. 45bps of easing throughout the year. Elsewhere, oil prices settled in the green but off highs with pressure seen after a surprise inventory build. Attention turns to US PPI and the 30 Year Treasury Auction on Thursday. The Fed left rates on hold, as was widely expected, but the updated dot plots now signals only one rate cut in 2024 vs. three in the March projections, while money markets and analysts were looking for two rate cuts in 2024. Four policymakers even see no rate cuts this year, with seven pencilling in just one cut. Eight, however, expect there to be two rate cuts this year. Looking ahead, the 2025 median dot plot is at 4.1%, up from 3.9% in March, while the 2026 dot was unchanged at 3.1%, but the longer run rate ticked up again to 2.8% from 2.6%. Elsewhere, headline and Core PCE projections were raised for 2024 and 2025, with 2026 unchanged. Unemployment was left unchanged at 4.0% for 2024 but was raised by 0.1% in both 2025 and 2026, to 4.2% in 2025, and to 4.1% in 2026. Real GDP growth forecasts were left unchanged throughout the horizon. The Statement also saw very few changes, the only alteration was that it acknowledged “modest further progress” towards the 2% inflation objective has been seen, versus the May Statement noting a “lack of progress”. There has been very little reaction aside from a slight move lower in bonds and a slight bid into the Dollar, perhaps with the relatively split dot plots (eight seeing two rate cuts, seven seeing one, four seeing zero) offsetting the shift higher in the median with the market largely trading off the cooler than expected CPI data earlier today; money market pricing is little changed. Fed Chair Powell’s Press conference unveiled little new, and he largely repeated what had been said before. He stressed the Fed needs to see more evidence that inflation is returning to target in a sustainable way and that if the economy remains solid, and inflation persists, the Fed is prepared to maintain rates at current levels for as long as appropriate. He also noted, in fitting with the dot plots, that no one has rate hikes as their base case. The Chair repeated that if there was an unexpected weakening in the labour market, the Fed would be prepared to act, and he suggested that if unemployment comes in above what the Fed expects, that would be considered an unexpected weakening – note, the 2024 median unemployment projection is at 4.0%. Powell welcomed the May inflation report and said he would like to see more of that, repeating inflation is still too high, and they need more data to gain confidence, stressing they do not want to be too motivated by just one print. On the labour market, he acknowledged it is still strong, but quits and job openings have been moving down. He also revealed he likes to look at the 3 and 6 month series on payroll reports. Powell also toed the usual post-SEP line that the dot plots are not a plan or any kind of decision, stressing the assessment of policy will adjust. He added that no one has a strong commitment to a rate forecast and that everyone would say the rate path is data dependent. Markets were relatively tame throughout the presser (and FOMC) with the market letting the data guide the way. Meanwhile, the inflation report was cool across the board – Core CPI M/M rose 0.2% (unrounded 0.163%), shy of the expected, and prior, +0.3% (prev. unrounded 0.292%) with the Y/Y +3.4% (prev. 3.5%, exp. 3.6%). Headline metrics were also light with M/M at 0.0% (exp. 0.1%, prev. 0.3%) and Y/Y at 3.3% (exp. 3.4%, prev. 3.4%). Delving deeper into the report, Core CPI was largely thankful for a 3.6% plunge in airline fares, and a surprise 0.1% decline in auto insurance prices, and as Pantheon Macroeconomics says, “a far cry from YTD average monthly increases of 1.7%.” The consultancy adds, airline fares and motor vehicle insurance components of the core PCE deflator are derived from PPI, not CPI data, and often diverge substantially M/M. Do note, there are areas of lingering strength in pricing power as the housing numbers are not really showing any softening with owners’ equivalent rent holding at +0.4% M/M for the fourth consecutive month and primary rents doing the same. Overall, Pantheon add, two-thirds of the components of the core PCE deflator are derived from CPI data, with the bulk of the remainder derived from the PPI numbers. After CPI, PM provisionally forecast that the core PCE deflator increased 0.16% in May, far short of the 0.34% average increase in the first four months of this year, but it will update its estimate after Thursday’s PPI data. As a result, and ahead of the Fed, a broad-based dovish reaction was seen (upside in stocks and bonds, downside in dollar) with pre-Fed 50bps (2 cuts) priced in by year-end vs. 39bps (1 cut) pre-data. Elsewhere, Oil closed higher by 0.62% while a weaker Dollar saw Gold end Wednesday with a gain of 0.6%.

To mark my 3000th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 170 points yesterday and is now ahead by 738 points for June, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 


The S&P 500 closed 0.85% higher at a price of 5421.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 35 points lower for a 0.09% loss at a price of 38,712.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.33% higher at a price of 19,465.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.93% lower.

This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.

This Morning, the Nikkei closed 0.4% lower at a price of 38,723.


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.49% lower.

The Euro closed 0.5% higher at $1.0805.

The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2798.

The Japanese Yen rose 0.3% closing at $156.63.


Germany’s 10-year yield closed 10 basis points lower at 2.53%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 15 basis points lower at 4.13%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 8 basis points lower at 4.32%.


West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.62% higher at $78.38 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.6% higher at $2324 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Industrial Production at 10.00 am. Next, we have U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims and PPI at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Williams at 5.00 pm and a 30 Year Treasury Auction at 6.00pm.

Cash S&P 500

Yesterday, was rare in that the S&P 500 closed at yet another new all-time high and 63% of the stocks comprising the Index closed lower, while there were more combined new lows versus new highs on the NYSE and NASDAQ (net -124). It was a very narrow advance for a new S&P high that included the NASDAQ but not the Dow which failed to confirm the other two major Stock Indexes. Shortly after the cash markets opened the S&P rallied to a new high at 5447. This move higher saw the S&P trade way outside the top of its Daily Bollinger Band, so it was no surprise to see a small sell-off into the close. Although internally the market was better as shown by the McClellan Oscillator which improved to close at -45 last night, the 14-Day RSI is severely overbought at 74 this morning. Yesterday’s aggressive move higher sees the S&P leaving a massive gap from Tuesday’s 5375 close to yesterday’s 5412 Chicago low. As you know all ‘’Open Gaps’’ get filled which would not be a surprise given the high RSI print. The aggressive move higher in both the NDX and S&P saw the VIX close lower by 6% at a price of 12.04. History tells us that owning stocks when the VIX is at 12 is not a rewarding exercise. Yesterday’s spike higher on the weaker than expected CPI print saw the S&P trade the whole of my sell range for a now 5409 average short position. I am still short with the same 5431 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my T/P level to 5397. The S&P will have short-term support at Tuesday’s 5375 closing print. Therefore, I will be a small buyer from 5362/5378 with a 5349 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5394.


My latest long 1.0785 Euro position worked well as the market rallied to my 1.0830 T/P level and I am now flat. AS long as the Euro does not close below Tuesday’s 1.0720 low print, I will continue to be a buyer of dips. Today, my buy level will be from 1.0680/1.0760 with a tight 1.0635 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0810.

Dollar Index

Late yesterday, the Dollar trade lower to my 104.50 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 104.95 T/P level. I will add to this position at 103.90 while leaving my 103.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Cash DAX

Thankfully, we had no sell level in the DAX with the market trading 200 points higher from where I marked prices yesterday morning at a price of 18610 this morning. Given how heavy the FTSE is trading I am reluctant to chase the DAX higher from here. The DAX has resistance from 18710/18800 where I will be a small seller with a 18905 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in buying the DAX is on dip lower to 18320/18400 with a 18235 ‘’Closing Stop’’.


It hard to believe that the FTSE is trading lower this morning given the rally in both European and U.S. Indexes in the past 24 hours. Despite how heavy the FTSE is trading I still do not want to be short the market. Today, I will continue to be a buyer of the FTSE on any dip lower to 8070/8140 with the same 8025 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8190.

Dow Rolling Contract

In contrast to both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, the Dow Averages stopped rising some time ago. The Transports topped in November 2021. The Utilities topped in April 2022. Both the Industrials and Composite topped a month ago, in May 2024. Relative weakness has continued short term. From the low on May 30, the Dow retraced half its May drop while the NASDAQ 100 has jumped more than 1400 points and the S&P a huge 256 Handles, pushing both of these Indexes into new high territory. Even yesterday with the tech stocks soaring, the four Dow Averages closed negative or flat. Money Managers have obviously continued to shift out of the general list of stocks and further into tech stocks. Narrower and narrower she goes. I am still flat the Dow despite yesterday’s 450-point reversal from its afternoon high. Ahead of PPI today and PCE tomorrow, I will now lower my Dow buy level to 38100/38350 with a lower 37995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the heaviness of the Dow I still do not want to be short the market at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Cash NASDAQ 100

Wrong! With the 14 Day RSI on the NDX closing at 75 last night I just cannot be a buyer of the market at these levels. The Market Cap for the three main drivers of this market is just staggering with Apple alone adding almost $800bn in value over the past 10 days. Yesterday’s spike higher on the weaker than expected CPI print saw my second sell level at 19370 triggered for a 19290 average short position. Just before the Chicago Futures close, I was stopped out of this position at 19505. Overnight the NDX has continued to rally, trading at 19640 as I go to press. I have now sold the NDX here again at this price. I will add to this trade at 19840 while having a wider than usual ‘’Closing Stop’’ at 20005. With the Index less than 400 points from the round number resistance of 20,000 the newswires will be all over trying to get the NDX to hit this key resistance level. Presently, the NDX is so far above its Daily Bollinger Band, and this is why I am trying a short position again.  I will have a T/P level on this position at 19350. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with anew update for my Platinum Members.

September BUND

I am still flat the Bund as the market never came close to yesterday’s buy range, trading at 130.85 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 129.40/130.20 with a higher 128.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 130.85. I still do not want to be short the Bund at this time.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold traded in a narrow range again yesterday and I am still flat. Ahead of this afternoon’s key PPI data and tomorrow’s PCE data I will not chase the price of Gold higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 2272/2288 with the same 2259 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2302.

Silver Rolling Contract

Overnight, Silver hit my second buy level at 29.00 for a now 29.40 average long position. I will leave my 28.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 29.95. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.


Please Note: There will no Daily Commentary tomorrow. Any of my calls that are not hit today and are subsequently triggered on Friday will see me return with updated emails for my Platinum Members.