U.S. Equity Markets finished the week lower, led by the 1.22% fall in the in NASDAQ 100. This is the first time since 2008 that the S&P has closed lower for five consecutive weeks. April’s job gains were greater than Wall Street’s projections. And despite a weaker expectation when compared with March, the figures held steady. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics’ (“BLS”) Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey, Non-Farm payroll data showed there were 428,000 new hires last month versus the anticipated 380,000. This suggests that the domestic economy is continuing to see steady growth as the labour market remains constricted. However, it also indicates that with more people working, consumers are spending on a variety of goods – driving demand above present supply levels and contributing to present inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Central bank interest-rate hikes and global economic growth are on a collision course… Inflation keeps rising. In the past month, we have received confirmation from domestic economic data. The Bureau of Labour Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) for March rose 8.5% compared with last year. And the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures surged by 6.6%. Either way you slice it, each of those measures marked the highest growth in prices in over four decades. The change means businesses and households have to pay more for everything. All of a sudden, trips to the grocery store and the office have become more expensive. But it is not just happening in America. The rest of the world is experiencing the same problem. Late last month, Germany’s preliminary consumer prices for April shot up 7.4%. Those were the worst numbers for Europe’s largest economy since its reunification in 1990… And in mid-April, Great Britain reported CPI growth for March of 7%. It has not seen those types of numbers since the start of 1992… And the primary tool for central banks to combat inflation is raising interest rates. By doing this, policymakers are hoping to make their respective currency more valuable. The idea is that as their sovereign debt yields more, investors will clamour to buy up those bonds. In the process, the currency will become scarce, driving up its value. Yet, as it costs more to borrow money and service debt, households and businesses will borrow less. At the same time, they will want to hang on to more U.S Dollars. The change will hurt their propensity to spend. This will weigh on the outlook for global growth and the S&P 500 Index. European Markets closed lower. European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn said it should commence rate hikes in July and exit below zero policy by this fall. European Central Bank Governing Council Member Robert Holzmann said it is likely to discuss interest rate hikes and the necessary course of action at the policy meeting in June. German Industrial Production’s March contraction was worse than expected as supply-chain disruptions weighed on businesses’ ability to access parts and materials. French first-quarter private-sector payroll growth was stronger than estimated, indicating a tightening in the country’s labour market. In Asia, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he wants the U.S. to re-enter the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement to counter Chinese influence in the region. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged the government would ensure stable manufacturing production to east port congestion, boost lending, and support economic growth. The European Chamber of Commerce in China said Beijing’s zero-tolerance COVID-19 policies are causing companies to consider moving business elsewhere. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s quarterly monetary policy outlook said it will need to raise interest rates as inflation is anticipated to remain above estimates in 2022 and 2023. Elsewhere, Oil rose 2.03% after China’s largest refiner said it has no intention of purchasing cheap Russian oil, indicating the flow of Russian supply will remain subdued worldwide, while Gold rose 0.43% on Equity Market weakness.

To mark my 2525th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 570 points on Friday and is now ahead by 135 points for May having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 




The S&P 500 closed 0.57% lower at a price of 4123.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 98 points lower for a 0.3% loss at a price of 32,899.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.22% lower at a price of 12,693.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.5% lower.

Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%.

Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.69% higher at a price of 27,003.


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.

The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0552.

The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2335.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.3%, closing at $130.54.


Germany’s 10-year yield closed nine basis points higher at 1.13%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed two basis points higher at 2.01%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed nine basis points higher at 3.13%.


West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.03% higher at $110.05 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.43% higher at $1884.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 9.30 am. This is followed by a speech from Bank of England Member Saunders at 2.00 pm. Finally, we have U.S. Wholesale Inventories at 3.00 pm.

Cash S&P 500

Thursday’s flush lower resulted in the worst internal readings in many years especially on a Weekly Basis. Tech has led this rout lower, led by big name stocks like Amazon which has fallen 30% in the past four weeks alone. Tech, Small Cap Stocks and Bond Markets have now all crashed. It is this combination that makes this sell-off even more brutal than the COVID 2020 crash. In the past Bonds tended to act as a safe haven but not here and this is a huge worry as Central Banks are now sitting on losses that run into the $trillions given the amount of insane QE pursed by the Fed, ECB and BOJ. Central Banks have not even started to run off the Balance Sheet Excesses as they try to slow the Economies but in my opinion the Economies have already slowed down, it is just that we are not seeing it in official data as yet. These Central Banks now risk putting us into a world-wide recession very quickly. Apart from the past two weeks we have had a nice run in the markets and as a result we have some flexibility with our positions. There is no doubt this is tricky but make no mistake this rout in equities and bonds is hurting everybody. With 10-Year Treasuries and 10-Year German Bund Yields closing at 3.13% and 1.13% respectively on Friday to register these most oversold Bond Markets in over 30 years, these Yields need to reverse quickly or else dare I say it these Central Banks risk causing a Depression. In my opinion the Debt System cannot sustain these level of yields. On the positive side we did see new highs in Copper, Corn and Steel occur with negative divergence and these three commodities have now rolled over to the downside over the past two weeks, hinting that inflation may indeed have topped for now. If this is true then we will see a vicious rally in equities and is the main reason why I am been consistent in not pressing the downside. On Friday, my S&P plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for a 4115 average long position before rallying to my 4136 revised T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P again at 4088 before exiting this position before the close at 4107 and I am now flat. Many of the indicators that I follow are deeply oversold. That does not mean we cannot sell-off further but if the market gets any sign that inflation has topped then this will be met by a vicious rally. Today, I will be a buyer of the S&P from 4035/4065 with no stop for now.


No Change. I am still long at 1.0565 with the same 1.0625 T/P level and 1.0485 stop. If I am stopped out of this position I will be an even more aggressive buyer from 1.0430/1.0480 with a 1.0365 stop. If I am taken long a second time I will have a T/P level at 1.0580.

March Dollar Index

The Dollar made a slight new high on Friday before having a small sell-off into the close. I am still short at 103.30 with the same 104.05 stop and 102.90 T/P level.

Cash DAX

The DAX got hit hard again on Friday and I am still flat. I have no edge in the DAX at this time and I am going to stay flat as I have no interest in pressing the downside given how oversold the DAX is at this time.


As part of its latest monetary policy update, the BOE said it is worried about runaway inflation and the consequent economic damage. Last Thursday, it raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%. This was the fourth consecutive meeting in which the bank tightened monetary policy. But several policymakers were so worried about runaway costs, they advocated for a 50-basis-point increase. At the same time, the MPC grew incrementally cautious about the country’s economic outlook. It noted the March inflation growth compared with the stated 2% target. Policymakers said inflated demand for goods as well as higher energy prices were driving the change. The central bank cited global supply-chain delays, the re-opening of economies following COVID-19, and the conflict in Ukraine as the main culprits. However, it expects prices to rise more rapidly than income for many people. The BOE forecasts inflation growth to reach around 10% this year. That compares with guidance in February for price growth to peak around 7.25%. It estimates it could be another two years before inflation comes back to the 2% target. But the jump in prices exceeds the estimate for take-home pay to increase 5.75% this year. As a result, the MPC anticipates economic growth will slow. It said the U.K. and global growth outlooks have deteriorated “materially” due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The central bank anticipates U.K. households’ disposable income to fall 1.75% this year, the second-largest amount since it began keeping records in 1964. The BOE is now expecting economic contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with a projection for 0.9% growth in the yet-to-be-released first-quarter numbers. It also anticipates an economic-output contraction of 0.25% for 2023 compared with a prior expectation for a 1.25% expansion. Meanwhile, the central bank lowered its global economic growth outlook as well, going from 4.25% to 3.5% for 2022 and from 4% to 3.25% for 2023. Given all of the above it is no surprise that the FTSE got hammered on Friday. I was long at 7490 before getting stopped at 7395 and I am now flat. Despite Sterling falling again on Friday, the FTSE is not oversold. I am going to stay flat today as I want to see how the market reacts to all the negative press in the Sunday Newspapers when we open this morning.

Dow Rolling Contract

My Dow plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my buy range for a 32625 average long position before rallying to my 32900 revised T/P level and I am still flat. The Dow has strong support from 32450/32200 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a wider 31985 wider stop.

Cash NASDAQ 100

No Change. The NDX again led the move lower yesterday. A massive 85% of NASDAQ stocks are now below their respective 200-Day Moving Averages as this market gets more oversold by the day. I continue to nurse last month’s 14327 long position which I have now carried into May. I will now lower my exit level on this position to 14100 which I am hopeful we will see this month. Given the fact that the NDX closed a further 1.22% lower on Friday, I will not add to this position today. If anything changes I will come back with a special update for my Platinum Members.


The Bund got hit hard again on Friday, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 151.85 average long position. I will leave my 150.95 closing stop unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 152.40. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Gold Rolling Contract

No Change. I am still flat as I continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 1845/1860 with an 1831 stop

Silver Rolling Contract

Silver traded lower to my 22.60 buy level. I am still long with the same 21.65 stop and T/P level at 23.30.