Equity Markets rallied Friday after shaking off a knee-jerk sell-off to the hot U.S. jobs report. The 303K jobs added (exp. +200K; prev. +270K), just in line AHE (+0.347% M/M) and fall in U rate 3.8% (exp. unchanged. at +3.9%) saw big selling in Treasuries as part of the broader hawkish reaction, with Money Markets now pricing in 65bps of cuts this year vs 70bps+ right before the data. A June rate cut is now just over a 50% probability vs 70% before the data, with all attention now on this Wednesday’s CPI. Note that the front end remained pressured with Fed hawks Logan (non-voter) and Bowman (voter) the latest officials to push back on rate cut expectations. Oil and Gold extended their bid with geopolitical uncertainty remaining high into the weekend with reports in CBS today (citing US officials) suggesting Iran could retaliate by the end of Ramadan next week in a drone attack. In FX, the Dollar initially caught a bid, but faded into the close with the broader risk rally. Headline NFP was hotter than all analyst forecasts. The economy added 303K jobs in March, above the 200K forecast, the 270K prior and above the highest analyst estimate of 250K. The Unemployment Rate eased to 3.8% from 3.9%, despite expectations for it to be left unchanged while the labour force participation rate rose to 62.7% from 62.5%. The report yet again shows a strong US labour market although it is worth noting that Fed Chair Powell had suggested that a strong labour market would not be a reason to delay rate cuts. The Fed Chair stated that strong job growth is not a reason for the Fed to be concerned about inflation, as job growth is stemming from an increase in the size of the labour force. Wages rose 0.35% M/M, just about in line with the 0.3% forecast while Y/Y wages rose 4.1%, in line with the expected and easing from the prior 4.3%. Money Markets now discount 67bps of easing throughout 2024 vs 73bps pre-data, similar to levels at the beginning of the week after the hot manufacturing ISM report. All eyes turn to U.S. CPI this week to further help shape Fed policy expectations. Looking ahead, analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics write that “The steep drop in the NFIB survey’s hiring intentions measure and the increase in layoff announcements points to much slower payroll growth in the spring and early summer.” PM note that the NFIB has been the best leading indicator of private payroll growth over the past couple of years, and “it is now consistent with a sustained slowing, to the point where private payrolls could fall outright by June or July.” Fed Member Bowman (Voter, Hawk) said it is not yet time for the U.S. to consider cutting interest rates, and her baseline outlook continues to be that inflation will decline further with the policy rate held steady at its current level and that Fed policy is appropriately calibrated for the state of the economy. Note there were two Fed dots that saw no cuts this year and one that saw no cuts in 2025 either. Bowman acknowledged the Fed will eventually cut rates if inflation continues to ebb, but cutting too soon risks an inflation rebound. She said progress on lowering inflation has stalled, but a deterioration in economic conditions would affect the policy view. She also said in post-speech commentary that she would not be comfortable cutting until disinflation returns. She repeated that while unlikely, it is possible the Fed may have to hike rates again to cool inflation. Bowman expects more declines in inflation amid a strong economy but sees slower progress in cooling inflation this year. She also noted that some job market vigour is tied to part time workers and immigration. Bowman added that a change in the neutral rate could limit how much the Fed ultimately cuts rates by. On the balance sheet, Bowman said there is some ways to go in shrinking the size of the balance sheet. Finally, Barkin, (2024 Voter, Hawkish) said that March NFP was quite a strong jobs report, stating the job market is very strong and people are reluctant to lay people off. Barkin also said the reduction in inflation has been an unbalanced mix, while in conversations with contacts, the largest issue is housing.

To mark my 2975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 592 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1013 points for April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 


The S&P 500 closed 1.11% higher at a price of 5204.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 307 points higher for a 0.80% higher at a price of 38,904.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.28% higher at a price of 18,108.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.84% lower.

Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.9% lower.

Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 1.96% lower at a price of 38,992.


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.16% higher.

The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0836.

The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.2637.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.1% closing at $151.62.


Germany’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 2.41%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 4.07%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points higher at 4.40.


West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.37% higher at $86.91 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.8% higher at $2323.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have German Industrial Production and the Trade Balance at 7.00 am. Next, we have Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence at 9.30 am. We have no U.S. Data of note today, except for a 6-month T-Bill Auction at 4.30 pm.

Cash S&P 500

Thursday saw the biggest intra-day reversal of the year-to-date as the S&P sold off breaking key basic support levels with a 110-Handle fall. Analysts trying to assess the reason for this large move lower from Fed speakers to Oil to geo-political etc. Markets have ignored everything this year and any of the above factors could have been the reason to trigger a down move. But when markets get so extended and when they finally sell-off people look for triggers and excuses before attaching them to price action. The reality is markets have been due a pullback, but as we know financial conditions have been driving everything and Thursday’s price action saw further tightening against expectations hence the ‘’Gap Up’’ was sold. The question now of course if it means anything or was another one-day wonder. If we do not make new highs then this sell-off could be the start of something major as unlike the other one-day wonders over the past few months, Thursday’s sell-off generated a proper trend break. The NDX tested its 50-Day Moving Average on Thursday. This tag was enough to attract strong buying and Friday’s 2% gain in the NDX helped both the Dow and S&P to move higher. I would like to see the S&P test the 5000/5050 area. We have several important Moving Averages in this area plus a move to this support level would see the S&P below its Daily Bollinger Band. I will be an aggressive buyer if we do sell-off to this area over the coming weeks. My S&P plan worked well on Thursday as the market traded the whole of my sell range for a 5249 average short position. Unfortunately, I covered this position at my revised 5241 T/P level. Subsequently, the S&P hit my 5182-buy level before rallying to my revised 5198 T/P level and I am now flat. The S&P has resistance from 5222/5238 where I will be a small seller with a 5253 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’. The S&P has short-term support from 5160/5176 where I will be a small buyer with a 5149 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.


The Euro traded in a narrow range over the past couple of days. I am still long at price of 1.0828 with a now lower 1.0895 T/P level. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.0768 with the same 1.0712 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Dollar Index

Frustratingly, the Dollar missed my 104.70 initial sell level by just one point before falling 50 points and I am still flat. Today, I will again lower my sell level tom 104.60/105.30 while leaving my 106.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.

Cash DAX

The DAX finally underperformed the other main Indexes with a long overdue 400-point fall. I am still flat as the DAX fell shy of my sell range before following the American Indexes lower. I still have no interest in being long the Market. I will now lower my sell level to 18330/18430 with a lower 18515 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 18260.


After the FTSE traded lower to my 7885 buy level we had a small bounce to my revised 7912 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 7780/7860 with a lower 7725 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

It is a long time since we saw a 900-point intra-day fall in the Dow as happened on Thursday. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a 38740 average long position before we rallied to my revised 38850 T/P level, and I am now flat. The Dow has support below from 38430/38680 where I will again be a buyer with a lower and tight 38295 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be short the Dow at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 38840.

Cash NASDAQ 100

On Thursday the NDX sold off to my 17930-buy level. This was just above the 50-Day Moving Average and first tag of this key MA since last November. I should have respected this key tag instead of exiting my long position at my revised 18000 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the NDX is trading higher at 18130. The NDX has support from 17870/18020 where I will be a buyer with a tight 17765 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be short the NDX at this time.

March BUND

I am still flat the Bund as the market just fell shy of my buy range. Today, I will lower my buy level slightly to 131.00/131.80 with a lower 130.35 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 132.40.

Gold Rolling Contract

Very late on Friday, Gold broke the 2300 level and spiked to my 2329 sell level. With the Daily Sentiment Index closing at 92 on Friday, Gold is due a pullback having risen for four straight weeks. This pullback started overnight with Gold hitting my 2317 revised T/P level and I am now flat. Gold has resistance from 2325/2341 where I will again be a seller with a higher 2355 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 2312. I still do not want to be long Gold at this time.

Silver Rolling Contract

My Silver plan worked well as the market traded lower to my 26.35 buy level before rallying to my revised 26.90 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 26.00/26.80 with a wider 24.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.