The latest Non-Farm Payrolls Report showed that 4.8 million Jobs were added back in June, which was well above the 3.23 million estimate, while the two previous months were revised up by a total of 90,000. The bottom lime is that after losing 22.16 million jobs in March and April, that 7.5 million jobs have been added back since the U.S Economy re-opened. US Indices initially surged on the NFP release with the Cash S&P hitting resistance at 3165. The Unemployment Rate came in at 11.1%, bearing the 12.5% forecast, while the Weekly Jobless Claims continued to ease, though the data missed estimates. Adding to the positive tone was comments from the National Institute of Health (‘’NIH’’) Director Francis Collins who said he was optimistic that a Coronavirus Vaccine would be produced by end of 2020 and that the U.S could have 300 million doses of the vaccine ready by early 2021. The S&P sold off into the close to finish the shortened session with a gain of 0.46% at 3130. European Indices closed lower on Friday as Members are at odds over the EU’s Euro 750 billion recovery fund. Elsewhere, both the Dollar and Treasuries firmed in thin trading while Oil closed 1% higher after the strong jobs data sparked optimism over crude demand. This morning both European and US Futures Markets are starting the week on a positive note following the huge 5% rally in Chinese Equities overnight. Despite the increase in Coronavirus, Markets are ignoring any bad news as this relentless equity market rally shows no sign of ending.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 350 points last Thursday/Friday and is now ahead by 862 points for July, having made 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The S&P 500 rose 0.43% to close at a price of 3130.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 92 points for a 0.36% gain to close at 25,827, well off its session high at 26,204.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.6% higher at 10,342.
Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed with a loss of 0.8%.
The FTSE 100 closed flat at 6160.
This morning the Nikkei closed 1.83% higher at 22,714.
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Euro decreased 0.1% to $1.1245.
The Japanese Yen closed little changed at $107.49.
The British Pound closed 0.1% higher at 1.2485 per Dollar.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed two basis points higher at 0.70%.
Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to -0.43%.
Britain’s 10-year yield decreased two basis points to 0.19%.
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.1% to $40.98 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $1777 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Factory Orders for May which rose 10.4% versus +15.4% expected. At 9.30 am we have UK Markit Construction PMI and Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence, followed by Euro-Zone Retail Sales at 10.00 am. At 2.45 pm we have U.S Markit Services PMI. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
September S&P 500
This incredible rally in the S&P continues as the market looks to break the key 3200 resistance level. This morning we are trading at 3165 which is in the ‘’Gap’’ from the Island Reversal in Mid-June. This is significant as a break and close over 3200 opens up the possibility of finally filling the large February Gap from 3258/3330. Remember a market that cannot fall on bad news has to respected. The spike in COVID-19 has given every chance for the market to trade lower but the unprecedented Central Bank actions is preventing any sustainable sell-off. On Thursday, my S&P plan worked well with the market trading the whole of my sell range for a 3146 average short position (3155 high) before selling off to an afternoon low on Friday at 3106. This initial move lower enabled me to cover this position at my 3135 revised T/P level and I am still flat. The S&P has strong resistance from 3185/3200 where I will be a seller with a 3211 tight stop. This morning’s move has left a large Gap to Thursday’s close at 3120. I will now raise my buy level to 3112/3127 with a 3099 stop.
On Friday the Euro traded lower to my 1.1220 buy level. As I want to be flat over the weekend I covered this position too early at my revised 1.1233 T/P level and I am still flat. If you are still long the Euro, then you are sitting on a nice gain this morning as we are trading at 1.1290. The Euro has strong resistance from 1.1350/1.1390 where I will be a seller with a 1.1425 tight stop. Sentiment is near extreme levels in the Euro with the DSI over 80% bullish, meaning gains in the Euro from here should be hard to sustain. I will continue to be a buyer in the Euro on any dip lower to 1.1190/1.1230 with a 1.1155 stop.
September Dollar Index
I am still flat and today I will lower my sell level to 97.30/97.70 with a lower 98.15 tight stop.
Thankfully we had no sell level in the DAX with the market now trading over 400 points higher from where I marked prices last Thursday morning. The DAX has resistance from 12900/13020 where I will be a seller with a 13095 stop. I will also raise my buy level to 12450/12580 with a 12375 stop.
Late on Friday the FTSE traded lower to my 6115 buy level before rallying to my revised 6130 T/P level and I am still flat. Even though the FTSE is trading higher at 6200 this morning, the market continues to underperform both the European and US Indices which is surprising given how weak Sterling is trading. Today I will be a buyer from 6110/6160 with a 6065 stop. The FTSE has resistance from 6280/6340 where I will be a small seller with a 6385 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 25640 buy level on Friday before rallying to my 25805 T/P level after the markets re-opened last night and I am now flat. The Dow has traded in a wild range since I posted on Thursday, hitting a high of 26206 after the NFP was released before selling off to my buy range on Friday. Subsequently we surged overnight with the Dow now trading at 26260 as I go to press. If the Dow can close above 26250 this evening, it will be bullish as this is where the 200 Day Moving Average comes in. Despite the NASDAQ closing at new all-time highs last week the Dow again underperformed as the market was not helped by the 5.4% fall in bank stocks. The Dow has initial support from 25750/25950 where I will be a buyer with a 25595 stop. I still do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
The relentless rally in the NASDAQ continues as one new all-time after another is made almost every day. This morning the NASDAQ is trading in my sell range and I have gone short in small size here at 10480. I will add to this trade on any further rally to 10580 with a higher 10645 stop. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 10415 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
On Friday the Bund traded higher to my 176.10 sell level before opening lower at my revised 175.78 T/P level this morning and I am now flat. The BUND has resistance from 176.25/176.65 where I will be a seller with a 177.05 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer from 1730/1740 with a 1719 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Shortly after Thursday’s NFP was released Silver traded higher to my 18.00 T/P level on my latest 17.85 long position and I am still flat. Today I will be a buyer from 17.40/17.80 with a 16.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 18.05.