U.S. Markets closed lower on Friday, led by the 1.79% fall in the NASDAQ 100. The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics released January’s payroll data, which blew away expectations. Nonfarm payrolls added 517,000 and the Unemployment rate fell to a 53 year low at 3.4%, while January’s ISM Services Index came in well ahead of expectations as new orders and employment noted sizeable improvements. Pricing pressures remain elevated but continued to decline. Major tech earnings disappointed after hours on Thursday, as Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) were not able to carry momentum that was handed over from tech rival Meta Platforms (FB). Within the S&P 500 Index, all the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed mixed after Euro-Zone PPI growth for December decelerated year over year. But it was still higher than consensus as durable consumer goods buoyed pricing pressures. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that until Russia announces plans to withdraw its troops from Ukraine, it is unlikely there will be any peace negotiations. Bank of England’s Chief Economist Huw Pill suggested the Central Bank’s monetary policy committee may only have one rate hike left before it pauses interest-rate hikes, sending Sterling lower by 1.3%. The European Central Bank’s (“ECB”) latest survey of professional forecasts revised the outlook for inflation through 2024. Further analysis showed that private businesses expect to slow the pace of price increases. In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said current easy-money policies are needed to support the economy and foster conditions for wage growth. South Korean Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho said inflation growth is likely to be around 5% for the first quarter of 2023. This is a slowdown compared with the Fourth Quarter of 2022. A Ministry of Commerce official signalled that China plans on releasing policies to stabilise the car market, including support for electric-vehicle sales that are similar to measures taken to stabilize the property sector. Elsewhere, Oil fell 3.48% while Gold collapsed, closing lower by 2.72% on a much stronger Dollar.
To mark my 2700th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on email@example.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 100 points on Friday and is now ahead by 602 points for February after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
The S&P 500 closed 1.04% lower at a price of 4136
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 127 points lower for a 0.38% loss at a price of 33,926.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.79% lower at a price of 12,573.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.34% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.6%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.67% higher at a price of 27,693.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 1.2% higher.
The Euro closed 1% lower at $1.0793.
The British Pound closed 1.2% lower at 1.2055.
The Japanese Yen fell 2.1% closing at $131.17.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 11 basis points higher at 2.19%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points higher at 3.05%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 14 basis points higher at 3.52%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.48% lower at $73.24 a barrel.
Gold closed 2.72% lower at $1878.10 an ounce.
This morning on the economic front we already had the release of German Factory Orders which rose 3.2% versus +2.0% expected. At 9.30 am we have Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence, followed by Retail Sales at 10.00 am. We have no data of note due from the U.S. This afternoon.
Cash S&P 500
I had the correct view to be a seller of rallies given the severely overbought technical backdrop. Unfortunately, the S&P missed my 4183 initial sell level by 2 Handles before falling over 50 Handles into the close and I am still flat. With Bond Yields and the Dollar rallying hard on Friday, Equity Markets had to fall as yet again the 14-day RSI again proved itself to be a very valuable too especially if we hit a 70 print. I will continue to be a strong buyer from 4080/4095 with the same 4069 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my sell level to 4170/4198 with a lower 4215 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
The 70 print in the 14-Day RSI was again a warning sign as to how overbought the Euro had become, resulting in the Euro falling over 210 points from Thursday’s high. This is a huge move in such a short period of time. I am still flat the Euro as the market just missed Friday’s sell range. The Euro has strong support from 1.0690/1.0750 where I will be a strong buyer with a 1.0635 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar surged 1.2% on Friday as the market never came close to my buy level and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy range to 101.50/102.20 with a tight 100.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
The DAX again missed my 15520-sell level by a few points before falling 100 points into the New York close. I am still flat. I will now lower my sell level to 15490/15590 with a lower 15675 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in buying the market is from 15050/15130, with the same tight 14975 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Incredible price action in the FTSE as the market closed at a new all-time high above 7900. I am still flat. This new high comes against an awful political and economic background as short positions have been slammed since the beginning of the year. I will now raise my buy level to 7750/7820 with a higher 7695 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow as unlike the other American Indexes, the Dow traded in a narrow range on Friday. The 50 Day Moving Average for the Dow comes in at 33665 this morning. Any test of this level will attract some short-term buying. As a result, I will be a buyer from 33370/33620 with a 33195 ‘’Closing Stop’’. My only interest in selling the Dow is still on a further rally to 34250/34500 with a lower 34645 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
The idea of buying the NDX given the huge gap left of Friday morning worked well as the NDX rallied to my 12630 T/P level. Subsequently. I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the NDX again at 12510 before incredibly the market rallied off this low to completely close Thursday’s ‘’Open Gap’’, with a 12820 high print. This move higher saw my 12630 second T/P level filled and I am now flat. This morning the NDX is trading lower at 12510. We have strong support from 12300/12450 where I will again be a buyer with a 12195 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 12580.
The Bund reversed most of Thursday’s gains, trading the whole of my buy range for a now 137.80 long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 138.45 while leaving my 136.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Wrong! My worries on Friday that Gold was trading heavy certainly proved to be correct as Gold fell over $50. This is one of the biggest sell-off’s in many months. Having flagged the price action on Friday, I should have exited my long position instead of adding to this trade at 1900 before getting stopped at 1878 on the New York close. This morning Gold is trading at 1876. We have support from 1837/1852 where I will be a strong buyer with an 1823 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
Siler got slammed on Friday, hitting my second buy level at 22.70 for a now 23.10 average long position. I will continue with no stop on this position. I will now lower my T/P level to 23.50.