Worries that higher rates are slowing economic growth in America, saw U.S. Equity Markets close lower on Friday. Both the NASDAQ 100 and S&P had their worst trading weeks since March. Sales of existing homes declined in August to their lowest level since the start of 2023. Limited inventory and historically high mortgage rates have plagued the sector, dragging sales down 15.4% year over year. The number of homes for sale also edged lower to 1.1 million, marking the lowest inventory levels since 1999. The median price of homes sold continued to rise, which only exacerbated the problem. According to the National Association of Realtors, the supply of homes would need to double to have any significant moderation on prices. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped to negative 13.5 in September, down from August’s reading of 12. The reading also came in well below market expectations of negative 0.7%. Several indicators, including new orders and shipments, ventured into negative territory. Businesses that we polled also reported increased prices paid and received, as well as a slight decrease in employment. However, the survey’s future indexes improved. This indicates hope for increased growth over the next six months. Cisco Systems (CSCO) just announced its largest acquisition to date. It agreed to acquire Splunk (SPLK) for approximately $28 billion. Cisco will pay $157 per share in cash – a sizable premium over Splunk’s previous closing price. The move represents Cisco’s large bet on artificial intelligence (“AI”), as Splunk announced a new line of AI offerings earlier this year. Cisco has also worked to expand its software and services business to shift from its own networking hardware. Cisco acquiring Splunk highlights corporate interest in leveraging AI capabilities to expand business capabilities. Alphabet (GOOG) has rejected rumours that it is planning to alter its relationship with Broadcom (AVGO) and assured the public that the chipmaker has been an excellent partner. The rumour that surfaced in a report outlined a dispute over chip pricing and said that Alphabet was exploring manufacturing options with Marvell Technology (MRVL). The company confirmed its partnership with Broadcom is stable. The chipmaker stands to gain an estimated $3 billion in revenue this year. European Markets closed lower. According to Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner, economic growth remains a significant challenge for the country. Lindner emphasised that the government should focus on strengthening growth on the supply side opposed to fuelling inflation with demand programmes. He also noted that debt ratios and the deficit ratio were falling for the first time since the pandemic. Lindner’s comments highlight the government’s commitment to fighting inflation and maintaining a restrictive policy that’s in line with the European Central Bank. In Asia, on Friday the Bank of Japan (“BOJ”) maintained its current monetary policy in its decision citing extreme uncertainties in the growth outlook. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the bank’s stance to maintain ultra-loose policy to ensure it achieves bringing inflation down. He furthered his statement saying that if inflation comes down quicker than expected that a shift in policy would be necessary. Elsewhere, Both Oil and Gold closed higher by 0.25%.
To mark my 2875th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 300 points on Friday and is now down by 526 points for September, after finishing August with 1485 points gain following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.23% lower at a price of 4320.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 106 points lower for a 0.31% loss at a price of 33,965.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.05% higher at a price of 14,701.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.31% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.85% higher at a price of 32,678.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.20% higher.
The Euro closed 0.1% lower at $1.0648.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at 122.45.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.6% closing at $148.39.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 1 basis points higher at 2.75%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 4.26%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 5 basis points lower at 4.44%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.25% higher at $89.95 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.2% higher at $1922.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Survey at 9.00 am. This is followed by the U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 2.00 pm and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Activity Index at 3.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
There are some weeks that you wished you had taken off. The start of the week was fine but once Powell stated his press conference it was game over with the S&P closing on the lows for three consecutive trading sessions. I cannot recall this happening before, not even last year. Friday, it was not even Bond Yields that caused the latest sell-off as Treasury Yields closed lower, but in my opinion, it was relentless programme selling. The S&P has had six Daily Red Candles in a row. Seasonality is still weak until Wednesday but then will turn positive into month-end. Although the $BPSPX RSI closed at an even more oversold 19, the McClellan Oscillator actually improved on Friday, closing at -137. The October/March trendline is hovering around 4280/4300 depending on when it would get hit, if it gets hit, thus I am sticking to the buyside. Just before the Chicago close on Friday, the S&P hit my 4319-buy level. I am still long with a now lower 4341 T/P level. Despite the carnage Junk Bonds continue to hold while the $NYSI will again be max oversold when the weekly reading is released. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
No Change. I am still long at 1.0652 following another quiet session for the Euro on Friday. I will continue to look to add to this position at 1.0590 while leaving my ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged at 1.0525. I will now lower my T/P level to 106.90. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
September Dollar Index
No Change. I am still a seller on any further rally 105.80/106.50 with the same 107.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash DAX
I am still flat. The DAX traded in a narrow range on Friday, trading unchanged at 15520 this morning from where I marked prices on Friday morning. We have support from 15340/15420 where I will again be a buyer with the same 15275 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat the FTSE as the market never came close to Friday’s buy range. As I am already long the three American Indexes I will not chase the FTSE higher, leaving my 7550/7620 buy level unchanged with the same 7495 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wrong! The late sell-off in the Dow saw my 33995-stop triggered on my 34295 average long position. This morning the Dow is trading back above 34000. I have bought the Dow here at 34020. I will add to this position at 33800 with a wider 33595 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have no T/P level on this position for now. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Both the S&P and NDX had their worst week since March, with both Indexes closing on the lows for the week. I am still long the NDX at an average rate of 15765. I will now lower my T/P level to 15860 while leaving my 15595 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update form my Platinum Members.
December BUND
Frustratingly. The Bund missed my 130.25 T/P level with a 130.18 high print before subsequently selling off 60 points into the close. I am still long at 130.05 with the same 129.25 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 130.15. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still flat Gold. Given the strength of the 1960/2000 resistance area I am reluctant to chase the price of Gold higher. Meanwhile, I have no interest in being short despite the strong resistance above. Therefore, I will stay flat until we see how the price action plays out.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. The boring sideways price action in both Gold and Silver shows no sign of ending. Silver has traded in an 80-point range for the last three weeks. I am still long at 24.05 and I will leave my 24.25 T/P level unchanged. I will also leave my 22.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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