U.S. Equity Markets primarily saw marginal gains on Friday, but small caps rallied with the Russell 2000 a clear outperformer. Outperformance was seen in Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Financials while Communication, Utilities and Tech underperformed. Communication was weighed on by further Google (GOOGL) woes with reports that OpenAI is looking to challenge its search business while Tech was weighed on by NVIDIA losses. Elsewhere, the Dollar saw notable gains to see the Dollar Index briefly rise above 108.00 for the first time since 2022 with upside supported by a weaker Euro and Pound after dismal data from the regions. Euro-Zone PMIs were weak across the board while UK Retail Sales were soft. Meanwhile, US data was encouraging with PMI’s beating thanks to a gain in the services sector, although the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey was revised down in November, but still above the October level. The data dictated treasury trade too, upside occurred in the morning after the European and UK data before selling off hitting lows after the US PMI report. Crude prices continued to rise on Friday, seeing the complex wipe out last week’s losses with a focus on the Russia/Ukraine escalation. Bitcoin edged closer to USD 100k but failed to hit the level on Friday. Attention this week turns to the October PCE report, 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP and FOMC Minutes ahead of Thanksgiving. S&P Global Manufacturing Flash PMI rose to 48.8 from 48.5, in line with market expectations, while Services jumped more than anticipated to 57.0 (exp. 55.2 – highest forecast was 55.6), its sharpest expansion since March 2022, leaving the Composite at 55.3 (prev. 54.1). On the report, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence noted a few interesting points: “The rise in the headline flash PMI indicates that economic growth is accelerating in the fourth quarter, while at the same time inflationary pressures are cooling”; “A concern is that growth remains heavily reliant on the services economy, with manufacturing production declining at an increased rate”; “However, the promise of greater protectionism and tariffs has helped lift confidence in the US good producing sector.”; “Factories are meanwhile stepping up their purchases of imported inputs as they seek to front-run tariffs.” The Final UoM survey of consumer sentiment in November saw multiple revisions lower. Headline sentiment was revised down to 71.8 from 73.0, despite expectations of an uptick to 73.7. The current conditions fell to 63.9 from 64.4 while the forward-looking expectations fell to 76.9 from 78.5, albeit improved from October. The report highlights that in a mirror image of November 2020, the expectations index surged for Republicans and fell for Democrats this month, a reflection of the two groups’ incongruous views of how Trump’s policies will influence the economy. Nonetheless, current conditions saw insignificant changes in November across the political spectrum, but substantial uncertainty remains over future implementation of Trump’s policies, and the survey highlights consumers will continue to re-calibrate their views in the months ahead. The 1yr ahead consumer inflation expectation was unrevised at 2.6% (beneath October’s 2.7%) but the 5yr was revised up to 3.2% from the 3.1% initially reported, and up from October’s 3.0%. Analysts at Oxford Economics highlight that although “the relationship between consumer sentiment and consumer spending has weakened in recent years”, this report bodes well for their forecast for consumption growth to remain close to 3% in the coming year. The desk notes that “Consumer spending is more dependent on real disposable income growth and healthy household balance sheets, which both point to solid growth ahead. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.63% higher while despite a stronger Dollar, Gold ended Friday with a further gain of 1.25%
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 320 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2626 points for November having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
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