U.S. Equities edged higher after President Donald Trump said he was “very close” to a trade pact with China even as he warned that Beijing wanted a deal more than he did. Automakers, an industry particularly sensitive to trade, led advances after Trump’s comments in an interview on Fox News. Bitcoin tumbled to a six-month low and the US Dollar gained. Oil fell and Treasury yields held steady. The S&P 500 Index posted a small weekly loss, its first since early October. It’s been a mixed picture on the trade front last week, suppressing volatility and keeping stocks in a tight range within 1% of a record high. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has invited Robert Lighthizer to Beijing for further talks later this month, according to people familiar with the matter, and Washington will likely postpone new tariffs scheduled for December even if there’s no deal by then, the South China Morning Post reported. However, Trump may soon sign a bill supporting Hong Kong’s protesters, a move likely to anger China. He declined to reveal plans when asked Friday. Asia stocks rose with European and U.S. equity futures as investors mulled the latest move by China that may go some way to easing trade tensions. The Japanese Yen dipped. Hong Kong stocks outperformed after local council elections proceeded with record turnout amid the city’s continuing unrest after residents in Hong Kong handed an overwhelming victory to pro-democracy candidates in a vote for district councils on Sunday.
To mark my 1950th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat on Friday and is still ahead by 591 points for November, having made 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Stocks’ short-term direction is still all about trade. Given precious little substance of late on that front, it is no surprise stocks are stuck in a tight trading range with volatility at multi month lows.
Although the S&P 500 Index rose 0.2% on Friday to close at a price of 3110, it still lost 0.3% for the week.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.4%.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index surged 1.2%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.2%.
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.
The Euro fell 0.3% to $1.1021.
The British Pound decreased 0.6% to $1.2835, following a gloomy reading of company sentiment
The Japanese Yen was fell 0.2% to 108.63 per dollar.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 1.77%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell three basis points to -0.36%.
Britain’s 10-year yield decreased five basis points to 0.7%.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.1% to $57.91 a barrel.
Gold slipped 0.1% to $1,463.04 an ounce.
Bitcoin tumbled to a six-month low to trade at $6650 this morning in London. It was only three weeks ago that we were trading a price of $10,000.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Survey at 9.00 am and this is followed at 11.00 am by the latest UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Finally, we have U.S Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index at 3.30 pm.
December S&P 500
The S&P is close to completing at least a short-term top in my opinion. There is a Bearish Divergence between the NYSE Cumulative Advance/Decline Line and the major Stock Indices. There is also Bearish Divergence between major Stock Indices and their 10-Day Advance/Decline Line Indicators. These divergences are growing, an ominous warning of an approaching significant decline. There is also six Hindenburg Omen signals on the clock. The stock market sits in dangerous territory at this time. Despite the S&P trading less than 1% off last Monday’s all-time high of 3132, the McClellan Oscillator again closed negative with a print of -64. This should not be happening if we had a healthy market. Having said all of the above it is difficult to hold a short position with the market now rebounding off Wednesday’ s 3090 low print to sit at 3119 as I go to press. I am still flat and today I will leave my 3128/3142 sell level unchanged with the same 3151 stop. Again I will raise my buy level to 3092/3102 with a 3083 stop. This is Thanksgiving week in the U.S. which is seasonally a strong period for equity markets. The market will be closed on Thursday and only open for a half-day on Friday.
Late on Friday the Euro traded lower to my initial 1.1020 buy level. I am still long and I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.1040. I will also add to this position on any further dip lower to 1.0980 with the same 1.0945 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December Dollar Index
The Dollar traded the whole of Friday’s sell range for a now average short-position at 98.25. As I am long the Euro I will now raise my T/P level on this trade to 98.00 with a now lower 98.55 stop.
The DAX closed weak on Friday but as optimism grows on a Phase-One Trade Agreement the DAX is trading 100 points higher at 13260 this morning. I am still flat and today I will raise my buy level to 13070/13140 with a 12995 stop.
The 0.6% fall in Cable on Friday saw the FTSE surge to close higher by 1.2% as thankfully we had no sell levels in this market and are still flat. I mentioned on Friday that weak short-positions would have to exit on a break of 7250 which turned out to be correct with the market unfortunately just missing my 7265 buy level before trading higher. I will now raise my buy level to 7275/7315 with a higher 7240 stop. I still do not want to be short the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow never came close to mu buy level as the rally off Wednesday’s 27685 low continues with the market trading higher at 27960 this morning. The Dow has resistance from last Monday’s high of 28157 and today I will be a small seller from 28100/28250 with a 28340 stop. My only interest in buying the Dow is on a dip lower to 27610/27770 with a 27435 tight stop.
I am still flat Bund and today I will raise my buy level to 170.20/170.60 with a higher 169.83 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold as the market struggles to rally. Today I will lower my buy level slightly to 1438/1448 with a 1431 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a buyer from 16.35/16.75 with a 15.95 stop.