U.S. Equity Markets rose in the early morning but fell throughout the day, ending the week mixed, as the S&P closed lower for the fourth consecutive trading session, while the Small Cap Russell 2000 closed with a gain of 2.06%. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that a large stimulus package is necessary to get the economy back on track. She added that progress was likely to be made within the next two weeks. In addition, Economic data were strong. U.S. services PMI hit the highest level in six years, while manufacturing PMI rose and matched estimates. Vaccine news was positive. Pfizer and BioNTech said that data showed their COVID-19 vaccine is 85% effective after only one dose. This could add to the increased vaccine supply, and accelerate the pace of vaccinations and the return to normal. Markets gave up their gains throughout the day ahead of this week’s important inflation data in the form of Personal Consumption Expenditures. Meanwhile, European Markets closed higher. The European Central Bank’s Meeting Minutes confirmed policymakers are committed to ongoing economic support. Despite its belief of the potential for rising inflation in the short term, it pledged to continue with easy-money policies for the foreseeable future. Along that front, Britain’s government is preparing to offer more economic support. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will present a new budget next month. In it, he is set to extend the country’s worker support scheme from its previous March deadline into the summer. And the icing on the cake was Markit Euro-Zone’s preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for February. It was stronger than expected, rising versus January. The implication being the regional economy should follow suit. This came as the European Union’s coronavirus outlook continues to improve. Vaccinations rose to 24.2 million on Thursday, with a daily average of 701,200 doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.56% on profit-taking after a recent surge to 13-month highs, while Bitcoin exploded to the upside over the Weekend, hitting a new all-time high above $57,000.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat on Friday and is still ahead by 2028 points for February, having finished January with a gain of 2077 points, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The S&P 500 closed 0.19% lower at a price of 3906.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed unchanged a price of 31,493.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.42% lower at a price of 13,580.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.46% higher at a price of 30,156.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% lower.
The Euro closed 0.2% higher at $1.2118.
The British Pound closed 0.3% higher at $1.4020.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.2% higher at 105.45 per dollar.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at -0.31%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at 0.67%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed four basis points higher at 1.34%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.56% lower at $58.25 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.31% higher at $1,778.20 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German IFO Survey at 9.00 am and this is followed by a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 2.30 pm. The only U.S data is the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index which will be released at 3.30 pm.
March S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 3930 sell level. I had not expected my sell range to be hit and as a result I unfortunately covered this position too early at 3924. The S&P sold off into the close and this move lower continued overnight as the market traded the whole of my buy range for a now 3880 average long position. With the S&P trading well below last Friday’s Chicago close I would expect some of this ‘’Open Gap’’ to be filled when the U.S. Markets open this afternoon. I will leave my stop unchanged at a 3864 ‘’Closing Stop’’, while lowering my T/P level to 3889. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
No Change as I am still short at 1.2100 with a now higher 1.2090 T/P level. I will leave my 1.2141 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will look to buy the Euro on any further move lower to 1.2020/1.2060 with a 1.1975 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.2095.
March Dollar Index
Shortly after I posted on Friday the Dollar traded lower to my 90.40 T/P level on my latest 90.55 short position and I am still flat. Today, I will be a seller from 90.70/91.10 with a tight 91.45 stop.
I am still flat the DAX and as I am long both the S&P and NASDAQ, I will now lower my DAX buy level to 13650/13730 with a lower 13575 stop. Remember a break and close below the key 13720/13800 support level is a sell signal for a move to 13350.
In the last few minutes the FTSE has traded lower to my 6520 buy level. I am still long and I will add to this trade at 6480 with the same 6435 stop. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 6555 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still flat and I will continue to be a buyer from 31080/31230 with the same 30995 tight stop. If I am stopped out of this position, I will be an aggressive buyer on any further move lower to 30580/30400 with a 30245 stop. I do not want to be short the Dow at this time.
The NASDAQ has traded in a 200 point range since the Futures Market re-opened last night. The NASDAQ traded the whole of my buy range and I am now long at an average rate of 13475. I will leave my 13375 ‘’ClosingStop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 13520. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Unfortunately, I was stopped out of my 174.50 long Bund position here at 173.75 this morning and I am still flat. U.S Treasuries are creeping higher with the 10-Year now trading at 1.37% this morning. We have key resistance at 1.40/1.45% and a break and close over this area is technically a buy signal, with a target level of 2%. The Bund has strong support from 172.90/173.50 where I will again be a buyer with a 172.45 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. Gold did close last week below the key 1800/1810 support level and this area should now act as strong resistance. However, I am not comfortable in going short Gold at this time. I will now raise my buy level to 1755/1770 with a higher 1743 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 26.10/26.70 with a tight 25.75 stop.