U.S. stocks fell for the first time in four days, with technology shares bearing the brunt of the selling in a market rattled by a barrage of trade-related headlines. The US Dollar rose. The S&P 500 declined a second week for the first time this year amid speculation U.S.-Chinese trade negotiations reached an impasse after tit-for-tat tariffs soured proceedings. Friday’s slump halted a three-day rally sparked by optimism the two sides would eventually reach a deal. The Nasdaq 100 slid 1%, with chipmakers under pressure a second day after the Trump administration threatened to ban Huawei Technologies Co. products. Ten-year Treasury yields were little change at 2.39%, while the US Dollar rose to around year highs. Oil fell toward $62 a barrel.
To mark my 1825th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 122 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1356 points for May, having made 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The late-day sell-off underscored the fragile mood on financial markets roiled by two weeks of concern that escalating trade war will undermine global growth. President Donald Trump took steps toward calming nerves by postponing any tariffs on Japanese and European cars, while agreeing to end levies on Canadian steel and aluminum imports. But the status of talks with China remained unclear as investors headed into the weekend. The S&P 500 Index fell 0.6% to 2,859.53 , the second weekly decline, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% to 25,764.00. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dipped 0.4%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fell 0.1%. Meanwhile the MSCI’s gauge of emerging-market stocks fell to its lowest level since January.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.3% to the highest in more than 21 weeks. The Euro fell 0.1% to $1.1165. The pound weakened as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May agreed to set a timeline to quit and Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn walked out of cross-party Brexit talks, with cable closing 0.6% lower at $1.2726.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell less than one basis point to 2.39%. Germany’s 10-year yield decreased one basis point to -0.1%. Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 1.034% as the buy the dip in the bond market shows no sign of ending.
West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 0.2% to $62.71 a barrel. Gold fell 0.6% to $1,278.90 an ounce. Bitcoin slumped as much as 14%, before paring losses as this month’s surge for cryptocurrencies was tested. However the sell-off did not last long with Bitcoin rallying 10% over the weekend to sit at $8000 this morning. Meanwhile, iron ore rose to the highest level in almost five years.
This morning on the Economic Front already had the release of German PPI which rose 0.5% versus +0.3% expected. At 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone Current Account. Finally we have the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 1.30 pm.
This afternoon the Bank of England’s Broadbent is speaking at 5.30 pm while at 6.05 pm it is the turn of the Fed’s Clarida.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan worked perfectly on Friday with the market trading lower to my 2857 buy level before rallying to my 2864 T/P level. Incredibly this rally continued to hit my 2887 sell level before falling 30 Handles into close. Unfortunately as the sell level was hit late in the session I did not take this trade myself and I am still flat. This morning the S&P is trading higher at 2869 having hit an overnight high of 2877. I still believe that as long as the S&P can hold its May low of 2802 that the market continues to be a buy on dips. The CBOE put/call ratio is compatible with this interpretation. The ratio has closed above 1.00 for seven consecutive trading sessions, meaning that more puts have been bought than calls every day over the period. This is the longest consecutive streak since a nine-day streak leading to the December 26 low last year. Prior to that, there was a 12-day streak to October 31, 2018, which led to a countertrend bounce until November 7. Today I will again look to buy the S&P on any dip lower to 2842/2852 with a 2834 stop. The S&P has resistance from 2894/2908 and I will be a seller on any rally to this area with a 2916 stop.
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 1.1080/1.1120 with the same 1.1045 stop. I will now lower my sell level to 1.1195/1.1235 with a 1.1265 stop.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and today I will leave my 98.10/98.50 sell level unchanged with a 98.80 stop. I still do not want to be long the Dollar at this time.
I am still flat the DAX with the market again rallying off a test of the 12150 area on Friday. I am not going to chase the DAX higher and today I will leave my 12050/12120 buy level unchanged with the same 11975 stop.
It took a while but finally the FTSE sold off to my 7295 T/P level on my average 7322 short position and I am now flat. With Sterling showing no signs of putting in a meaningful bottom so far the FTSE is trading higher this morning at 7340. The market has strong resistance from 7370/7410 and I will be a seller in this area with a 7445 stop. Given how severely overbought the FTSE is at this stage I still do not want to be long the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow had a wild trading session again on Friday with the market just missing my 25570 buy level before incredibly rallying to my 25940 sell level with a 25951 high print. Subsequently the Dow fell 200 points into the close and for any member who did short you would have made nice gain. Just like the S&P above I did not take this trade myself as I wanted to hang on to the excellent gains made all week and I am still flat. Today I will move my buy level higher to 25470/25620 with a 25350 wider stop. My only interest in selling the Dow is from 26000/26150 with a 26240 stop.
No Change as I am still a seller from 7640/7690 with the same 7735 stop.
I am still flat the Bund and today I will now lower my sell level to 167.45/167.85 with a lower 168.15 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked with the market hitting my 1275 buy level late in the New York session. As I wanted to be flat over the weekend I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 1277.50 and I am still flat. I still believe that Gold has a limited downside level of 1248/1258 and today I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 1241 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still long at 14.80 with the same 14.25 stop. I will now lower my exit level to 14.70 as I have this position too long. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.