U.S. Equity Markets gained for the second consecutive trading session with both the Dow and S&P closing at new all-time highs. However the market did not close at their intra-day highs as the Dow fell 150 points off it’s 45070 high in the last 15 minutes of a shortened trading session on Friday after the Thanksgiving holiday, with Treasuries also rising and the Dollar slipping amid mounting (if naive) speculation that president-elect Donald Trump will temper his most extreme trade policies drove the dollar to its biggest weekly loss in three months. The 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points to 4.19%, the lowest in more than a month, as cash trading resumed after the Thanksgiving holiday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%, ending an 8-week winning streak and heading for its biggest weekly loss in three months. Trump’s pick for his Treasury secretary has fuelled optimism that tariffs will be measured, boosting US stocks and bonds, and sapping Dollar strength. The S&P 500 has already risen 5% in November, on course for its best month since February, while having it best year this century. Investors have ploughed $141 billion into the American Equity Market in the past four weeks which is the heaviest inflow for a four-week period on record. A handful of tech titans have led 26% year-to-date gains in US stocks on the prospect of Federal Reserve rate cuts while the American economy continues to chalk up growth. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while a weaker Dollar saw Gold continue to recover some of last week’s losses, ending Friday with a gain of 1.1%.
To mark my 3100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat on Friday, closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.56% higher at a price of 6032.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 188 points higher for a 0.42% gain at a price of 44,910.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.90% higher at a price of 20,930.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.58% higher.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.4% lower.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.37% lower at a price of 38,208.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.26% lower.
The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.0571.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.2732.
The Japanese Yen rose 1.26% closing at $149.62.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points lower 2.09%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 4.25%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 6 basis points lower at 4.19%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.23% lower at $68.56 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.1% higher at $2658 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone, U.K. and U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am,9.30 am and 2.45 pm respectively. This is followed by U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending at 3.00pm. Finally, we have a speech from Fed Member Waller at 8.15 pm.
Cash S&P 500
It was no surprise that the S&P closed at another new all-time high given the strong seasonality of the Thanksgiving Period. I am still flat the S&P as the market just fell shy of my initial 6048 sell level with a high at 6044 before falling 12 Handles in the Chicago close. Given how overbought this market is I will now lower my S&P sell level slightly to 6042/6062 with a lower 6077 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will not chase the market higher preferring to patiently wait for a large sell-off before buying. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 5940/5956 with the same 5923 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 6027. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5972. If these views change I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro traded in a narrow range since Thursday’s commentary. I am still long the Euro at an average rate of 1.0665. Given how oversold the Euro I will continue to hold this position with no stop for now. I will leave my T/P level unchanged at 1.0690. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dollar Index
The Dollar is trading at a price of 105.75 this morning. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 104.50/105.30 with the same 103.75 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be short the Dollar at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T./P level at 105.80.
Cash DAX
‘’Nothing Matters’’ Inflation nudges up to 2.3% on Friday and the DAX rallies over 300 points from where I marked prices last Thursday morning, which again shows the one-way trading of the German Equity Market. You are not allowed to short no matter how bad the news is. The DAX has short-term resistance from 19710/19810 where I will be a small seller with a 19905 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 19640. I no longer want to be long the DAX at this time. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Cash FTSE
Despite both European and American Indexes soaring on Friday the FTSE traded in a narrow range and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 8170/8240 with a higher 8095 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 8290. Despite the FTSE been short-term overbought I have no interest in selling the market at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Frustratingly the Dow just missed my 45100 initial sell level buy 30 points on Friday before falling 150 points into its early New York close. As we are at the start of a new week, I will now raise my sell level slightly to 45150/45450 while leaving my tight 45605 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. Meanwhile, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 43670/43920 with the same 43495 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. Remember given how overbought this market is with a Market Cap to GDP above 207% can break at any time thus my low buy level in the Dow for the third consecutive trading session. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 44970. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 44210.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat the NDX. Today, I will continue to be a seller on any further rally to 21200/21360 with the same 21505 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The NDX has support below from 20380/20530 where I will continue to be a strong buyer with the same 20295 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 20640. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 21040.
December BUND
The Bund rallied over 150 points last week, closing at yield of 2.09% on a day when Inflation for the Euro-Zone came in higher than expected at 2.3%. This late move higher on Friday saw the Bund hit my sell level for a now 134.90 short position. I will now raise my T/P level to 134.30. I will continue to look to add to this position on any further move higher to 135.60 while leaving my tight 136.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold tagged a few more points on Friday and I am still flat. As I am still long Silver, I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer from 2575/2592 with the same 2559 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 2608.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: I am still long Silver at an average rate of 32.30 from two weeks ago with a now lower 29.45 ‘’Closing Stop’’. This morning Silver is trading lower at 30.42. I will now leave my T/P level unchanged at 32.60. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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