U.S Equity Markets closed mixed (SPX flat, NDX +0.4%) on Friday in broad risk-averse conditions with distinct underperformance in the small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.6%) as it continued on its sell-off from Thursday. Sectors were largely in the red, with only Tech and Communications firmer as Industrials lag after a downbeat MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) (-10.5%) earnings pre-announcement in addition to Boeing (BA) (-2%) telling suppliers it is delaying 737 production targets by three months. As alluded to above, sentiment was dampened in the European morning after French Finance Minister Le Maire sparked a rout in European assets, after he answered “yes”, when asked if the current political crisis could result in a financial crisis. As such, it sparked significant strength in non-OAT EGBs with some spillover to US Treasury and the German Bond Market. Treasuries bear flattened, and hit highs around further dovish US data, albeit not a consequence of, just more a coincidence, but did come off best levels after Mester (voter, retiring in June) said they want a few more months of ebbing inflation data. Goolsbee (2025 voter) later spoke noting if the Fed get more months like they just saw on inflation, the Fed can cut rates. On the data footing, US import/export provided the latest indication inflation may be cooling as they both surprisingly declined, while preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June disappointed, with 1 Year inflation expectations unchanged at 3.3% with the 5-10 Year ticking higher to 3.1% from 3.0%. The crude complex saw two-way action on Friday, but ultimately ended flat, as geopolitical headlines took a back seat amid political angst out of Europe. Looking ahead, traders await a slew of Fed speak this week, amongst US Retail Sales (Tues), Flash PMIs (Fri), auctions, and a raft of central bank decisions. Friday the Import/Export Prices was released. Another dovish US data print this week, where trade data provided the latest indication inflation may be cooling. On the figures, import prices surprisingly declined -0.4% (exp. +0.1%, prev. +0.9%) while export prices fell 0.6% (exp. 0.0%, prev. +0.6%). Overall, and as Oxford Economics alludes to, “the fall in import prices was partly due to lower fuel prices, though continued deflationary pressure from China is also exerting more lasting downward pressure.” Looking ahead, along with the strong dollar, the consultancy expect import price inflation to remain subdued over the coming months. On Thursday, we had the release of U.S. PPI. PPI was cooler-than-expected across the board. Highlighted by headline M/M surprisingly declining 0.2% (exp. +0.1%, prev. +0.5%), and outside of the bottom end of the forecast range of -0.1%. Y/Y rose 2.2% (exp. 2.5%, prev. 2.3%). Looking at the core figures, M/M was flat (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.5%), also beneath the lower bound of 0.1%, while Y/Y rose 2.3% (exp. & prev. 2.4%). The report added that margins for fuels and lubricants retailing jumped 12.2% and the indices for food and alcohol retailing; outpatient care (partial); automobiles and automobile parts retailing; and apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing also advanced. Conversely, prices for airline passenger services fell 4.3%, with machinery and vehicle wholesaling, professional and commercial equipment wholesaling, portfolio management, and truck transportation of freight declining. As such, an initial broad-based dovish reaction was seen (upside stocks, Treasuries & gold, downside Dollar) with money markets pricing in 2 rate cuts or 51bps by year-end, vs. 44bps pre-data. Of course, this follows in the footsteps of the softer-than-forecast CPI data on Wednesday. Nevertheless, the Fed’s new forecasts imply they expect the core PCE deflator to rise at a 0.19% average pace between May and December.” As such, PM adds, it lays the foundations for the first rate cut to come in September and multiple easings this year. For the record, prior to the next Fed meeting at the end of July, there is another CPI and PPI report alongside a jobs report and core PCE numbers.

To mark my 3000th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 777 points on Friday and is now ahead by 1515 points for June, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 


The S&P 500 closed 0.04% lower at a price of 5431.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 57 points lower for a 0.15% loss at a price of 38.589.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.42% higher at a price of 19,659.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.97% lower.

This Morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.

This Morning, the Nikkei closed 1.8% lower at a price of 38,115.


The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.31% higher.

The Euro closed 0.8% lower at $1.0699.

The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at 1.2685.

The Japanese Yen fell 0.4% closing at $157.38.


Germany’s 10-year yield closed 17 basis points lower at 2.36%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 7 basis points lower at 4.06%.

U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 9 basis points lower at 4.23%.


West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.22% lower at $78.45 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.4% higher at $2332 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Labour Costs at 10.00 am. The only other data of note due today is the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index at 1.30 pm and a speech from Fed Member Harker at 6.00 pm.

Cash S&P 500

As I mentioned in Thursday’s Daily Commentary, the S&P hit an all-time on during Wednesday’s trading session at a price of 5447. On Friday, June 13, the Index made a new closing high – not a new intraday high- but just 37% of the stocks comprising the Index closed the session higher. On the NYSE, down volume was 70.6% of total volume. The market’s advance keeps narrowing to mainly a handful of mega-caps, high profile stocks. On a net basis, more S&P stocks have been declining versus advancing since Mid-May while the Index has continued to rally. The last time the S&P A/D line bearishly diverged relative to the Index was from November 12, 2021, to January 4, 2022. Recall that the first date coincided with the top in the Russell 200 Index and the Value Line Composite, and the second date is when the S&P peaked and started a 22% decline to October 2022. If the S&P can fill last Tuesday’s ‘’Open Gap’’ at 5375 and close below this number then we will have what is called an Exhaustion Gap’’ which is normally very bearish. On Friday morning the S&P hit a low at 5393. This move lower saw my revised 5400 T/P level triggered on Wednesday’s 5409 average short position. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to go short again at a price of 5422 before the market traded lower to my 5407 T/P level and I am now flat. With the 14-Day RSI closing at 72 on Friday I am happy to be a seller of rallies. The S&P has further resistance from 5448/5468 where I will be a seller with a 5483 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 5421. The S&P will have short-term support at Tuesday’s 5375 closing print. Therefore, I will continue to be a small buyer from 5362/5378 with a 5349 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 5394.


The Euro got hit hard on Friday, trading to a low at 1.0665. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 1.0710 average long position. I will leave my 1.0635 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged while lowering my T/P level to 1.0760. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Dollar Index

Shortly, after I posted on Thursday the Dollar rose to my 104.95 T/P level on my latest 104.50 long position and I am now flat. This morning, the Dollar is trading at 105.53. We have resistance from 105.80/106.40 where I will be a seller with a 107.05 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be long the Dollar at this time.

Cash DAX

The DAX has got hit hard since Thursday morning. The initial sell-off saw my 18390-buy level triggered before rallying to my revised 18452 T/P level as emailed to my Platinum Members. On Friday I emailed them again to buy the DAX at a price of 17980 before rallying to my 18070 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the DAX is trading at 18,060. The market is oversold. We have short-term support from 17820/17920 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 17735 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 17990. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.


On Friday after hours of non-action in the FTSE, the market finally hit my 8130-buy level. This morning the FTSE has rallied to my 8190 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 8070/8140 with the same wider 7995 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite how heavy the FTSE is trading, I still do not want to be short the market at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

While the S&P and NDX are at or near all-time highs, the Dow is not. The all-time closing high occurred at 40,003 on Mya 17, an entire month ago. So, it was interesting that the advisors in last week’s most recent Investors Intelligence Survey increased their bullishness to 60.3% from 57.6% the week prior. It is the first time that advisors are more than 60% bullish since the end of March and beginning of April, when they were 62.5% bullish. That high coincided with a high in the Dow before the market fell over 6%. The Dow has now closed down for five of the past six trading sessions, the last four in a row. The Index has also closed lower for three of the past four weeks, showing weakness relative to the S&P and NASDAQ. It took a while buy finally the Dow traded lower to my 38300 revised buy level on Friday morning before rallying to my 38440 T/P level and I am now flat. Given how oversold the Dow is trading relative to both the S&P and NDX, I prefer to be a buyer of dips in the Dow rather than trying to go short. The Dow has strong support from 38000/38250 where I will again be a buyer with a lower 37795 wider ‘’Closing Stop’’.

Cash NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ has witnessed plenty of two-way price action since Thursday’s Daily Commentary was posted. On Friday, the NDX hit my revised 19480 revised T/P level on my latest 19640 short position. With the RSI closing at an unstainable 79 on Friday night, I went short the NDX again at a price of 19620. I will add to this position on any further move higher to 19820 while leaving my wider than normal 20005 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will have a T/P level on this position at 19500. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

September BUND

Wow! The Bund has now rallied over 250 points since Thursday’s Daily Commentary with the yields at a now 2.36% low. The Bund is overbought at these levels. We have resistance from 133.70/134.50 where I will be a small seller with a 135.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I no longer want to be long the Bund at this time.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold traded in a narrow range again over the past two trading sessions and I am still flat. I have no interest in chasing the price of Gold higher especially as I have a large, long Silver position at this time. Therefore, I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 2272/2288 with the same 2259 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 2302.

Silver Rolling Contract

No Change: I am still long Silver at an average rate of 29.40 with the same 28.25 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 29.80. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.