U.S. Indices closed mixed on Friday with outperformance in the NASDAQ 100 as Communication and Tech names outperformed, while the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were little changed, and the Dow underperformed. The Dow was weighed on by retailers (WMT, PG) after a woeful Retail Sales report in the US. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq was propped up by more gains in Nvidia (NVDA), and Airbnb (ABNB) shares outperformed in the Index after strong earnings. T-Notes were bid in response to the weak retail sales report, which appears to show the pre-tariff spend boom has taken a pause while cold weather and LA fires are also to blame. The report hit the Dollar while antipodes outperformed ahead of the RBA and RBNZ this week. Energy prices were choppy, peaking after comments regarding maximum pressure on Iran from US Treasury Secretary Bessent, who said they want to cut Iran oil exports to 100k BPD. Nonetheless, more optimism regarding Ukraine and Russia peace sent crude lower, settling in the red. Ukraine President Zelensky said he will meet with Russian President Putin when he has a plan with the US. Gold prices sold off heavily, back to under USD 2,900/oz after testing record highs earlier in the session, where a weaker Dollar, soft US data and falling Bond Yields were not enough to support the yellow metal with perhaps profit taking occurring ahead of the long weekend with US President’s Day on Monday. January Retail Sales were weak, the headline declined by 0.9% M/M, a deeper decline than the expected -0.1%, although the prior was revised up to 0.7% from 0.4%. The core measure, ex autos, declined by 0.4%, despite expectations for a 0.3% gain while the prior was also revised up to 0.7% from 0.4%. Ex autos and gas declined by 0.5%, while the prior was revised up to 0.5% from 0.3%. The disappointing report in January shows the consumer has slowed down its spending at the start of 2025, with the end of 2024 boosted by fears of incoming tariffs. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that the pre-tariff sales boom is already fading. Regarding GDP, the control group, a better gauge of consumer spending, was also weak as it fell by 0.8%, well below the 0.3% forecast, with the prior revised up to 0.8% from 0.7%. ING notes that cold weather and LA fires certainly played a role in the poor start of 2025 for consumer spending, adding that confusion over tariff timing is also having an impact, although Zelensky did admit he does not think the US has a plan for peace in Ukraine yet, but that Ukraine is ready to move as fast as possible towards real peace. Import price rose 0.3% in January (exp. 0.4%), the highest rise in nine months, after seeing an upward revision to 0.2% from 0.1% in December. Import fuel prices rose 3.2%, driven by higher prices for petroleum and Natural Gas, after a 1.7% increase in December. Ex-fuel import price ticked up 0.1% for the third consecutive month in January; Higher prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials; capital goods; and foods, feeds, and beverages in January more than offset lower prices for automotive vehicles and consumer goods. Export prices soared 1.3% (exp. 0.3%, rev. 0.5%), the largest monthly rise seen since May 2022. Driving the move higher was higher non-agricultural export prices (+3.5%) which more than offset the lower agricultural (-0.2%) export prices. Industrial Production rose 0.5% in January, above the expected 0.3%, with the prior revised higher to 1% from 0.9%. Manufacturing output surprisingly dipped 0.1% (exp. +0.1%, prev. 0.5%), which was mainly due to a sharp 5.2% m/m decline in motor vehicle & parts, while Capacity Utilisation ticked higher to 77.8% from 77.5%. Capital Economics notes the rise in IP is not as good as it looks as it was driven by a weather-related surge in utilities and a further post-strike recovery in aerospace and parts output. Highlighting this, Aerospace & parts manufacturing rose by 6% and Utilities output soared by 7.2%. Ahead, CapEco notes, despite some improvement in recent months, survey-based manufacturing activity indicators remain a little downbeat, and with the post-strike normalisation in aerospace and parts production nearly completed, manufacturing output is likely to remain close to stagnant.
To mark my 3150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 485 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2470 points for February. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.01% lower at a price of 6114.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 165 points lower for a 0.37% loss at a price of 44,546.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.38% higher at a price of 22,114.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.24% lower.
Last Friday, the MSCI Asia Pacific closed 0.3% higher.
Last Friday, the Nikkei closed 0.79% lower at a price of 39,149.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.48% lower.
The Euro closed 0.9% higher at $1.0491.
The British Pound closed 1.1% higher at 1.2586.
The Japanese Yen rose 1.4% closing at $152.30.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 5 basis points lower at 2.43%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points lower at 4.51%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 16 basis points lower at 4.48%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.77% lower at $70.74 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.2% lower at $2882.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. Despite the American Markets closed for the Presidents’ Day Holiday, Fed Members Hawker, Bowman and Waller are due to speak at 2.30 pm, 3.20 pm and 6.00 pm respectively.
Cash S&P 500
Much higher-than-expected inflation data as shown by Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI led to record highs in the S&P as my ‘’Nothing Matters’’ theme shows no sign of ending anytime soon. According to Bloomberg we have record assets parked in leveraged funds. Assets in products using derivatives to make long bets rose to a record $95 billion last week. In contrast, inverse equity ETFs – strategies that generate amped-up gains by betting on declines in single stocks or Indexes, including both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 – have amassed roughly $9 billion in total assets. That ratio is over 10:1, greater than the prior record of 7:1 set in January 2022, the last time the Blue-Chip Indexes topped out. It is hard to know what to say when investor behaviour just keeps getting crazier. Is this time different? Will all these stock-market gamblers go Lambo and retire? Or do these figures mean that the ultimate payback will be that much more vicious? I firmly expect the latter result, but the number and duration of valuation and sentiment extremities have been astonishing, and waiting for market justice has been commensurately frustrating for ‘’Bears’’. My strategy of selling rips has worked well since the start of the year as I patiently wait for a more sustained correction to set up a long trade. On Thursday, the S&P hit my 6090-sell level before selling off to my 6078 T/P level and I am now flat. With cash markets closed today, volatility should be less. The S&P has further resistance from 6132/6150 where I will again be a seller with a higher 6165 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Give the above extremities I have no interest in buying the S&P at this time. If this view changes, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
EUR/USD
The Euro never came close to Thursday’s buy range despite the much higher than forecast PPI print. The Euro is now short-term overbought having rallied 300 points since last Monday. The Euro has resistance from 1.0560/1.0630 where I will be a small seller with a tight 1.0705 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 1.0270/1.0340 with the same 1.0205 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 1.0505. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 1.0395.
Dollar Index
The Dollar is trading over 1% lower since I posted on Thursday. This move lower saw the whole of my buy range triggered for a now 107.00 average long position. I will now lower my T/P level to 107.35 while leaving my tight 106.15 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged.
Russell 2000
My long 2230 Russell position worked well as the market rallied to my 2270 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning, the Russell is trading at a price of 2269. We have short-term support below from 2170/2230 where I will again be a buyer with the same 2115 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Cash FTSE
My latest 8790 short FTSE position worked well as the market sold off to my 8740 T/P level and I am still flat. The FTSE is severely overbought, trading close to all-time highs. The FTSE has resistance from 8780/8860 where I will again be a seller with a lower 8925 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken short, I will have a T/P level at 8730. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
I am still flat the Dow as the market never came close to Thursday’s buy range. This morning, the Dow is trading at a price of 44530 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 43950/44200 with a higher 43795 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Despite the Dow underperforming the other main Indexes, I still do not want to be short the market at this time. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 44380.
Cash NASDAQ 100
All the bad news continues to be bought where it is higher inflation or much weaker than expected Retail Sales, the NDX is now withing touching distance of its all-time high. Tech is the only game in town as this overvalued market gets more overvalued by the day. There is no sign of any broad leadership while volume is extremely low. After the NDX hit Thursday’s sell range for a 21935 short position the NDX sold off to my revised 21840 T/P level. Subsequently, I emailed my Platinum Members to sell the NDX again and following Friday’s late surge into the close, I am now short at 22130. I will add to this position at 22300 while having a stop at a ‘’Closing Price’’ of 22405. My T/P level on this short position is at 22040. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
December BUND
I am still flat the Bund as the market never came close to Thursday’s buy range. This morning, the Bund is trading higher at 132.20. We have short-term support from 130.70/131.40. I will now raise my buy level to this area with a higher 129.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If triggered, I will have a T/P level at 131.95.
Gold Rolling Contract
My Gold plan worked well as the market rallied to my 2937 sell level before selling off to my 2919 T/P level and I am now flat. Subsequently, Gold fell $40 into the New York close. Gold has short-term resistance from 2925/2945 where I will be a small seller with a lower 2961 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change: Silver has support below from 30.40/31.30 where I will again be a buyer with the same 28.95 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long, I will have a T/P level at 32.05.
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