U.S. Equity Markets bounced around on a volatile end to the week closing mixed with the Dow falling 1.50% while the NASDAQ 100 closed higher by 0.63%. Equities sold off sharply at the open before recovering. Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) was the main driver today. This is the Federal Reserve’s main inflation gauge. The concern here was that the data would show a spike in inflation, which could force the Federal Reserve to raise Interest Rates to slow inflation. The data was not as bad as some had feared, and came in line with the Wall Street expectation. This indicates that the central bank likely won’t be raising rates any time soon. There was also optimism surrounding COVID-19 vaccines, as hopes grew that Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine could be approved and was yesterday by the FDA. Meanwhile, a group of FDA scientists reportedly said that the vaccine was effective across all age groups. This will now boost the available doses and speed up the pace of inoculation. European Markets fell again. European Union leaders were said to move closer to a coronavirus-vaccine certificate that would allow countries to reopen borders and inoculated individuals to travel freely. European Central Bank Governing Council Member Isabel Schnabel reiterated the central bank may need to increase Monetary Policy support if borrowing costs rise too much. French preliminary Consumer Price Index data for February declined versus January, falling back into negative territory, as social-distancing restrictions weighed on demand. European Union coronavirus vaccinations rose to 30 million yesterday, with a daily average of 815,900 doses administered over the last week. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.91% lower after its recent rally, while Gold got hit hard on Dollar strength, closing 2.58% lower.

To mark my 2250th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 569 points on Friday, to finish February with an impressive gain of 3216 points, having made 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

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Equities

The S&P 500 closed 0.49% lower at a price of 3811.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 469 points lower for a 1.50% loss at a price of 30,932.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.63% higher at a price of 12,909.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.7% lower.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%.

This morning the Nikkei closed 2.41% higher at a price of 29,663.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.

The Euro closed 1.0% lower at $1.2073.

The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at $1.3926.

The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% lower at 106.54 per dollar.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed five basis points lower at -0.27%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed three basis points higher at 0.82%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed nine basis points lower at 1.40%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 2.91% lower at $60.77 a barrel.

Gold closed 2.58% lower at $1,726.80 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and UK Markit Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 and respectively. Also released at 9.30 am, are UK Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals and Consumer Credit. This is followed at 1.00 pm by German CPI. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have U.S ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending.

Speaking wise this afternoon we have the Fed’s Williams and Brainard at 2.00 pm and 2.05 pm respectively, while at 4.10 pm it is the turn of ECB President Lagarde.

March S&P 500

Despite the incredible two-way volatility witnessed on Friday, the VIX  actually closed 3.25% lower at a price of 27.95. Friday’s late 40 Handle sell-off has been reversed overnight, with the S&P now trading at 3850 as I go press. My S&P plan worked well with the S&P hitting my 3850 sell level before selling off to my 3790 buy level with a 3785 low print. I covered my short position at 3838 and my long position at my 3812 T/P level and I am still flat. It is still very difficult to be short Equity Markets for any length of time as the Central Banks will continue to act as support as they cannot afford both Bond Markets and stocks to fall given the ramifications. The S&P has resistance from 3870/3885 where I will be a small seller with a 3901 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The 50 Day Moving Average continues to act as strong support for the S&P (3806). The S&P has initial support from 3808/3823 where I will be a buyer with a 3795 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

EUR/USD

The Euro hit my second buy level at 1.2100 for a 1.2125 average long position before stopping me out of this trade at 1.2055 and I am now flat. The Euro has further support from 1.1980/1.2020 where I will be a  buyer with a 1.1945 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1.2055.

March Dollar Index

I was stopped out of my 90.35 short position at 90.71 and I am still flat. So far the key 89.60/90.20 support area is holding, I will be an aggressive buyer on any dip to this area with a 88.95 wider stop. I no longer want to be short the Dollar at this time

March DAX

After the DAX rallied to my 13825 sell level, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 13775 and I am still flat. This morning the DAX is following the US Indices higher, trading at 13950 as yet again the key 13800 support area held. The DAX has resistance from 14050/14120 where I will be a small seller with a 14185 stop. I will be a buyer from 13750/13820 with a tight 13685 stop.

March FTSE

Shortly after I posted on Friday I was stopped out of my 6595 long position at 6570. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the FTSE again at 6470 before the market rallied this morning to my 6500 T/P level on this position and I am now flat. The FTSE has support from 6430/6480 where I will again be a buyer with a 6385 stop. I still do not want to be short the market at this time.

Dow Rolling Contract

My Dow plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 30990 buy level before rallying to my 31170 T/P level and I am still flat. This morning the Dow is now trading 350 points higher from Friday’s 30932 closing price. The Dow has support from 30850/31030 where I will again be a buyer with a 30695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my sell level slightly to 31480/31630 with a lower 31775 ‘’Closing Stop’’.

March NASDAQ

The NASDAQ just missed my 12700 buy level before rallying to my 13080 sell level. Subsequently the NASDAQ fell 180 points but unfortunately as I wanted to be flat over the weekend, I covered this position too early at 13040. This morning the NASDAQ has again reversed Friday’s late sell-off to sit at 13120 which is just below the 50 Day MA (13135). I will be a small seller on any further rally to 13170/13240 with a 13305 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now raise my buy level to 12830/12920 with a 12745 tight ‘’Closing Stop’’.

March BUND

We saw the expected intervention by the ECB as they bought European Bonds on Friday. Lagarde and a number of ECB Members had flagged this over the past two weeks. However with inflation rising this will be a tough battle to maintain. Pension Funds who bought European Bonds over the past 10 months are now sitting on large losses. I will now raise my buy level in the Bund to 172.90/173.50 with a higher 172.45 stop.

Gold Rolling Contract

After Gold traded the whole of my buy range for a 1730 average long position I covered this position too early at 1735 and I am now flat which is frustrating with Gold trading higher at 1750 this morning. Today, I will again be a buyer from 1720/1732 with a 1709 stop.

Silver Rolling Contract

Shortly after I posted on Friday, Silver rallied to my 27.20 T/P level on my latest 27.10 long position and I am now flat. Silver has support from 25.80/26.40 where I will again be a buyer with a 25.35 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 26.75.