U.S. Equity Markets sold off sharply to end the week, with the main Indices closing lower by 2% on what turned out to be a wild trading session. The VIX closed 10% higher. Vaccine news was a key driver. Johnson & Johnson released its Phase III vaccine data, showing 66% efficacy. This is likely good enough to win emergency authorisation in the U.S., but came in below the 80% to 85% expectation. And Novavax said that its vaccine was 89% effective in its U.K. trial, though it showed only 60% efficacy against the South African strain. Economic data were mixed. Consumer Sentiment weakened in late January and Pending Home Sales fell from the month before. But Chicago Fed PMI beat expectations and hit the highest level since October 2018. The Reddit-Robinhood short squeeze calmed a bit today, as brokerages removed temporary limitations on trading certain stocks. This week, markets have a catalyst as earnings season continues. Meanwhile, European Markets closed mixed. The European Union is said to have enacted an export ban on Coronavirus vaccine doses, meaning shipments are not allowed to leave the EU until its purchases have been filled. The U.K. insisted AstraZeneca’s vaccine works in people over the age of 65 after a German advisory panel warned against the shot for that age group. Germany’s preliminary fourth-quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) beat expectations, signalling the economy did not shrink as much as thought. Novartis became the second pharmaceutical company to agree to lend manufacturing capacity to Pfizer and BioNTech in an effort to ease COVID-19 vaccine supply constraints. Elsewhere, Bitcoin jumped 14% on commentary from billionaire investor Ray Dalio, while both Gold and Oil again closed flat.

To mark my 2225th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 585 points on Friday to finish January with a gain of 2077 points, having made 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points

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Equities

The S&P 500 closed 1.97% lower at a price of 3714.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 620 points lower for a 2.03% loss at a price of 29,982.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 2.09% lower at a price of 12,926.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.2% lower.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.55% higher at a price of 28,091.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.2% lower.

The Euro closed 0.1% higher at $1.2131.

The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at $1.3698.

The Japanese Yen closed 0.5% lower at 104.70 per dollar.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.56%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.28%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points lower at 1.03%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed flat at $51.68 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.15% higher at $1,844.20 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Retail Sales which came in at -9.2% versus -2% expected. Next, we have German, Euro-Zone, UK and U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am, 9.30 am and 2.45 pm Respectively. In between, we have Euro-Zone Unemployment at 10.00 am. Finally, we have U.S Construction Output and ISM Manufacturing PMI at 3.00 pm, followed by a speech from the Fed’s Rosengren at 7.10 pm.

March S&P 500

Incredible two-way volatility since I posted early Friday morning with the S&P falling to a low of 3657 shortly after the Futures Market re-opened last night before surging to sit at 3732 as I go to press. On Friday, my S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 3731 buy level before rallying to my 3747 T/P level. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to buy the S&P again at 3710 before exiting this position near the close at 3719 and I am now flat. There is no doubt that the price action is very similar to 12 months ago when we saw a series of sell-offs followed by gut wrenching rallies ahead of the February 19 top and subsequent crash. Central Banks will do everything in their power to prevent another crash. This makes it difficult to be short for any length of time. The S&P has resistance from 3747/3762 where I will be a small seller with a 3775 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have support from 3680/3695 where I will be a strong buyer with a 3665 stop. If stopped I will be an aggressive buyer from 3635/3650 with a 3619 wider stop.

EUR/USD

I am still flat and today I will leave my 1.2030/1.2080 buy level unchanged with the same 1.1985 stop. I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.

March Dollar Index

I will now raise my buy level to 89.85/90.25 with a higher 89.40 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 90.60.

March DAX

I only trade the Futures Hours for the DAX which are from 7.00 am until 9.00 pm London time. Outside these hours the spread betting firms make their own prices. Last night the DAX did trade into my buy range, before surging and if you did buy the DAX I would take your profit here at 13550. I do not like the price action in the DAX but it is extremely difficult to be short despite the awful economic data as witnessed by the 9% fall in Retail Sales for December, announced this morning. The DAX has resistance from 13680/13750 where I will be a small seller with a 13825 stop. We have support from 13300/13370 where I will be a buyer with a 13235 stop.

March FTSE

My FTSE plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 6380 buy level before rallying to my 6420 revised T/P level and I am now flat. The FTSE has strong support from 6310/6360 where I will again be a buyer with a 6270 tight stop.

Dow Rolling Contract

Incredible volatility in the Dow since I posted on Friday. Initially the Dow traded lower to my 30295 buy level before rallying to my 30460 T/P level and I am now flat. Subsequently the Dow sold off to an overnight low at 29660 before surging almost 600 points. The Dow has resistance from 30360/30540 where I will be a small seller with a 30705 stop. The Dow has support from 29780/29930 where I will be a buyer with a 29645 stop.

March NASDAQ

My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 12970 buy level before rallying to my 13065 T/P level and I am still flat. The NASDAQ hit a low at 12730 overnight before rallying 300 points. We have strong support from 12850/12930 where I will be a buyer with a tight 12775 stop. If stopped I will be an aggressive buyer from 12550/12650 with a wider 12430 stop.

March BUND

After the Bund traded lower to my 176.95 buy level we rallied to my 177.30 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will again be a buyer from 176.40/176.90 with the same 175.95 stop.

Gold Rolling Contract

Despite the huge rally in Silver, Gold continues to underperform, trading sideways for most of the past few weeks. Crucially the key 1800/1820 support area has held during this time, opening up strong possibility of a move higher. I will now raise my buy level to 1822/1839 with a higher 1811 stop.

Silver Rolling Contract

The short squeeze continues in Silver with the market now trading over 20% higher from last Thursday’s low to sit at 29.80 this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 27.80/28.50 with a tight 26.95 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 29.15.