U.S. Equity Markets sputtered late in the session Thursday but still managed to close at a record high as traders were whipsawed by conflicting headlines on the progress of trade talks with China. Early reports that the U.S. and China were prepared to exchange tariff rollbacks pushed the S&P 500 Index higher throughout the day, but the rally lost some steam after Reuters said the plan was meeting resistance in the White House. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow later told Bloomberg, “If there’s a phase one trade deal, there are going to be tariff agreements and concessions.” Before the Reuters report, haven assets from gold to sovereign bonds had been sinking — along with defensive stocks like utilities and real estate — as a risk-on mood gripped markets. Copper and crude jumped at least 2% before paring gains. Sovereign bonds plunged around the world on the earlier positive trade news, with the 30-year Treasury yield hitting its highest since August. Ten-year French and Belgian bond yields climbed back above 0% for the first time in months, while the German equivalent surged 10 basis points. Yields remain elevated, even after the latest trade wrinkle. Gold fell nearly $30 an ounce at one point, only recover some of that loss, but still hit a three-month low.
To mark my 1950th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 48 points yesterday and is now ahead by 162 points for November, having made 1649 points in October, 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Risk appetite had been picking up as news of progress on trade helped counter earlier reports that a preliminary accord may not happen this month as the two sides continued to wrangle over a location to sign it. But the latest headlines have left traders to wait for the next bit of news. Until it gets signed, I think markets are going to stay cautious, which means you’re not going to price in the best-case scenario,
The S&P 500 Index increased 0.3% to close at 3085.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.7% higher at 27,677.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.4% higher at 407, the highest level in more than four years on its fifth consecutive advance.
Germany’s DAX Index surged 0.8% to 13,289, which is its highest level in 21 months.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index increased 0.5% to 1074, its highest level in six months.
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.1% higher at 1202, the highest in almost three weeks.
The Euro fell 0.2% to $1.1047.
The British Pound fell 0.3% to $1.2815, after two Bank of England policy makers unexpectedly voted for an interest-rate cut.
The Japanese Yen depreciated 0.3% to 109.27 per dollar, the weakest in more than five months.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries increased nine basis points to 1.92%, the highest in more than 14 weeks.
The two-year rate advanced six basis points to 1.67%.
Germany’s 10-year yield advanced ten basis points to -0.23%, the highest in almost four months on the biggest surge in over 17 months.
Britain’s 10-year yield gained eight basis points to 0.795%.
West Texas Intermediate crude gained 1.0% to $57.00 a barrel.
Gold depreciated 1.5% to $1,468 an ounce, the weakest in more than three months.
This morning on the Economic Front we have the German Trade Balance at 7.00 am. This is followed at 1.30 pm by Canadian Unemployment and a speech from Fed Member Brainard. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Wholesale Inventories.
December S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 3094 sell level before having a late sell-off to a low of 3080. This move lower enabled me to cover this position at my revised 3090 T/P level and I am now flat. With volume low and internals on the weak size as shown by the McClellan Oscillator I am worried that we are going to get a reversal in the market. Just as I go to post the MO was released showing a negative reading of -17 which is incredible given that all three US Indexes at or near all-time highs. The U.S. is on Holiday on Monday for Veterans Day which may make it difficult in trying to sustain any short-position over the weekend. Today I will again look to sell the S&P from 3101/3115 with a 3124 stop. I no longer want to be long the S&P at this time.
As expected I was stopped out of my 1.1105 average long position at 1.1059 and I am now flat. Today I will be a small seller from 1.1080/1.1120 with a tight 1.1145 stop. I no longer want to be long the Euro at this time.
December Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and today I will again raise my sell level to 98.30/98.70 with a 99.05 stop.
With eight of my calls having hit either yesterday of the previous day I did not sell the DAX when it traded into my sell range and I am still flat. Three short positions in the US Indexes was enough exposure at the one time. The DAX is severely overbought and as I am still short the Dow I will now say flat the DAX until Monday’s commentary.
I am still flat the FTSE which again impressed with another gain helped by the 0.5% fall in Sterling. Today I will raise my buy level to 7270/7310 with a higher 7245 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
As I was already short both the NASDAQ and S&P, I waited to sell the Dow which I did at a price of 27690. I am still short and I will now add to this short position on any further move higher to 27845 with a higher 27915 stop. Ahead of the long-weekend I do not want to be long the Dow at this time. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 27610.
My NASDAQ plan also worked well with the market trading higher to my 8270 sell level before falling 70 points and I covered this position at my revised 8257 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the market from 8265/8335 with a 8380 stop.
The BUND had its biggest one-day sell-off in 17 months as my plan to buy the market proved totally wrong. After the market traded the whole of my buy range for a 170.40 average long position I was quickly stopped out of this trade at 169.85 and I am now flat. The BUND is severely oversold and due a bounce, with support at 168.90/169.30 where I will be a buyer with a 168.45 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 169.60.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold traded lower to my 1464 buy level. I am still long with a now lower 1471 T/P level and a stop at 1454.
Silver Rolling Contract
The $30 fall in Gold saw Silver trade lower to my second buy level at 17.20 for a now 17.40 average long position. I am not happy with this trade and I will now lower my exit level to 17.25 with the same 16.85 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members