U.S. stock futures and European shares edged higher yesterday in a lack luster session marked by thin trading volumes thanks to the American holiday. Brazilian stocks surged and the Real gained as a congressional committee voted to advance the pension-reform bill. Gold slipped but stayed above $1,400 and WTI futures fell. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index finished modestly higher, with real estate firms and banks lifting the gauge. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index also nudged up after Asia’s benchmark finished higher overall thanks to gains in Japan and South Korea. Trading volumes were well below average across the board, with U.S. markets shut for the July 4 holiday and investors counting down to Friday’s American jobs report. Core European bonds climbed, with German 10-year yields sliding below the European Central Bank’s deposit rate for the first time. Treasuries were not trading thanks to Independence Day. The US Dollar was slightly lower in the wake of accusations from President Donald Trump that the European Union and China engage in currency manipulation, while the Euro edged higher.
To mark my 1850th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 298 points for July, having made 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February and 1671 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Thursday’s holiday in the U.S. is giving many investors a breather after a hectic few weeks in which bonds surged and stocks hit records as they tracked every twist in the trade war, tried to second guess central bankers and analysed every data point. Next up, a U.S. jobs report that will be closely monitored for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move. Today’s data is important to the extent that it will calibrate expectations for what the Fed could deliver later this month. It is more about confirming the market’s current bias rather than setting fresh expectations. Futures on the S&P 500 Index increased 0.1% to close at 3004. In Europe,the Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.1%, reaching the highest in 12 months, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index decreased 0.1%, the first retreat in a week. Brazil’s Ibovespa index surged as much as 1.9% to a record high.
Here is a summary of the main changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.
The Euro increased less than 0.05% to $1.1283.
The British Pound gained less than 0.05% to $1.258.
The Japanese Yen climbed less than 0.05% to 107.78 per dollar.
The Brazilian Real climbed 0.8% to 3.7956 per dollar, the strongest in three months.
On the currency-war front, Trump in a Twitter post yesterday said China and Europe are playing a “big currency manipulation game” and “pumping money into their system” to compete with the U.S. He said America should match their efforts “or continue being dummies” who watch other countries manipulate currencies.
The rally in European Binds continues with Britain’s 10-year yield dipping two basis points to 0.673%, the lowest in almost three years. Germany’s 10-year yield decreased two basis points to -0.402%, which is a new all-time closing low.
Apart from Bitcoin it was a quiet day on the Commodity front with Gold closing 0.2% lower at $1,415.48 an ounce. In Oil, West Texas Intermediate crude dipped 0.9% to $56.80 a barrel.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Factory Orders which fell 2.2% versus 0.2% expected. At 8.30 am we have the UK Halifax House Price Index. This is followed at 1.30 pm by the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report, which is projected to show that NFP rose by 160,000 in June, rebounding from 75,000 the month prior. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6% while Average Earnings are expected to rise 0.3%. Finally, at 4.00 pm we have the Fed Monetary Policy Report.
September S&P 500
With US Markets closed yesterday we saw little or no movement as we wait for the NFP Report at 1.30 pm. Given the lack of traders at their desks today we could see a pick- up in volatility, depending of course how weak or strong the NFP is. I will leave my 3013/3025 sell level unchanged with the same 3034 stop. Meanwhile I will raise my buy level slightly to 2972/2982 with a higher 2964 stop.
No Change as I am still a small buyer on any dip lower to 1.1200/1.1240 with a 1.1170 stop. Despite the weak price action I still do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
September Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 95.50/95.90 with the same 95.15 stop.
I am still flat the DAX as the market rallied shortly after I posted yesterday morning. Despite the DAX trading higher I am going to leave my 12480/12540 buy level unchanged as we wait for the Payroll data this afternoon. If I am taken long I will have a stop at 12425, while my T/P level will be at 12575.
Unfortunately the FTSE just missed my 7585 sell level with a 7570 high print before falling for the first trading session in over a week. Today I will now lower my sell level to 7565/7605 with a 7635 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The odds are high that with so many investors focused on the beach, barbeque and cold beer, short-term volatility could be elevated, particularly in the Dow and the Bond Market. I am still flat the Dow which has strong resistance from 27150/27300, where I will be a seller with a 27380 stop. I still do not want to be long the Dow at this time.
I am still flat the market and today I will raise my sell level slightly to 7950/8000 with an 8045 stop.
The Bund keeps making new highs as the market falls further and further into negative territory as the madness of negative rates continues. Yesterday’s move higher saw the Bund hit my 173.98 sell level. I am still short and I will now lower my stop to 174.40. I will also raise my T/P level on this position to 173.68. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still a small buyer on any dip lower to 1394/1404 with the same 1388 tight stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long from Wednesday at 15.25 with the same 15.40 T/P level. I will now raise my stop on this position to 14.98.