U.S. stocks rose for a sixth consecutive day and the US Dollar strengthened as investors remained bullish about U.S.- China trade negotiations and key jobs data this afternoon. The benchmark S&P 500 capped the longest rally since February 2018, closing at another six-month high, after fluctuating through most of the session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also finished at the highest since October, led by gains in Boeing. Tesla’s record decline in first-quarter deliveries weighed on the Nasdaq. President Donald Trump said Thursday that talks with Chinese officials are “moving along very nicely” and he’ll meet with Vice Premier Liu He at the White House later this afternoon. The trade deal being crafted would give Beijing until 2025 to meet commitments on commodity purchases and allow American companies to wholly own enterprises in the Asian nation, according to three people familiar with the talks.
To mark my 1800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 35 points yesterday and is now ahead by 132 points for April, having made 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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“The message of the day is it’s more a matter of when and not if,” Burns McKinney, a portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s New York headquarters. “It’s very clear that everything that’s gone on here politically, the president needs a policy win so badly, wants a policy win so badly. He wants to point to something.”
Apart from the movements in Sterling it was another quiet session for currency markets with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closing just 0.2 percent higher. The Euro eased 0.2 percent to $1.1216, however this loss has been reversed this morning with the Euro now trading at 1.1235, while the yen weakened about 0.1 percent to 111.55 per dollar. The British Pound weakened 0.5 percent to $1.3070 as nervousness gripped the markets about Britain leaving without a deal. Overnight the EU’s Tusk said a ‘’Flexible Brexit Delay’’ may be the way forward. This would allow the UK to have a 12 month extension with the carrot that the UK could leave sooner if MPs ratify a deal. The Pound likes this idea with Cable now trading at 1.3120 this morning. Meanwhile the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 0.2 percent yesterday.
Just like the currency markets the Bond market was extremely quiet as we wait for the US NFP data this afternoon. The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 2.52 percent. Meanwhile Germany’s 10-year yield dropped one basis point to negative 0.008 percent, while Britain’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to 1.09 percent.
All the action at the moment is in either Bitcoin of the US Indices. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.2 percent to close at 2877 having made a new year to date high of 2885, while the Nasdaq Composite Index eased less than 0.1 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.6 percent. In Europe the Stoxx Europe 600 slumped 0.3 percent, the first drop in five days and the MSCI Emerging Market Index rose 0.1 percent.
Brent crude oil rose above $70 a barrel in London for the first time since November amid signs global inventories are tightening and expectations of new sanctions on Iranian crude. Bitcoin dropped after a two-day 28 percent rally to close 5% lower as it tested its key 4650 which is the 200 Day Moving Average. This morning Bitcoin is opening 2% higher at $4925.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German Industrial Production which rose 0.7% versus +0.8% expected. At 1.30 pm we have US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. The monthly U.S. jobs report is projected to show Non-Farm Payrolls up 175,000 in March, versus the 186,000 average over the prior three months, after recent readings whipsawed analysts. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8% while Average Earnings are expected to rise 0.3%
June S&P 500
The S&P just missed my 2886 sell level with a 2885.50 high print before the market fell 15 Handles. This has been of my most frustrating trading weeks of the year with so many calls coming close to execution before reversing. The S&P did not stay low for long and buoyed by a strong Dow rallied into the close and this rally has continued overnight. Today I will again raise my S&P buy level to 2862/2872 with a 2855 stop. The S&P has strong resistance from 2902/2912 and my only interest in selling the S&P is a rally to this area with a 2919 stop.
Volatility in the Euro is near all-time lows with the market again trading sideways as it has done all week I am still flat and today I will leave my 1.1150/1.1190 buy level unchanged with the same 1.1115 stop.
June Dollar Index
I am still flat the Dollar and ahead of the NFP data I will now raise my sell level to 97.20/97.60 with a 97.95 stop.
The DAX did trade higher to last May’s 12045 high before having a small sell-off and I am still flat. Today I will raise my buy level slightly to 11810/11890 with a 11750 higher stop. Despite the DAX been overbought I still do not want to be short the market at this time.
The weaker Pound saw the FTSE trade higher to my 7345 sell level before having a small selloff and I used this move lower to cover this position at my revised 7333 T/P level and I am now flat. I still believe that the Pound is a buy on dips and as a result given how overbought the FTSE is trading I will continue to be a seller of this market on rallies. Today my sell range will be from 7390/7435 with a 7465 tight stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow closed at new highs for the year last night and is opening higher this morning at 26430. The Dow is now less than 400 points from its all-time high last October as yet again anyone shorting this market gets slammed. The Dow is now trading an incredible 5000 points higher from where it was trading on Christmas despite the weak economic data. Today I will move my buy level higher to 26100/26250 with a 25995 wider stop. Despite the Dow trading overbought I still do not want to be short the market at this time especially as I have sell levels in the S&P and NASDAQ above the market.
My NASDAQ plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 7595 sell level before falling 60 points. I used this move lower to cover this position at my revised 7572 T/P level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the NASDAQ on any further rally to 7620/7660 with a 7690 stop. The NASDAQ has good support from 7420/7480 and I will be a buyer on any dip to this area with a 7380 stop.
I am still flat the Bund and reluctant to chase this market lower. As the NFP is due this afternoon I will leave my 166.05/166.45 sell level unchanged with the same 166.75 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold just missed my 1278 buy level with a 1280.50 low print before rallying $15 and I am still flat. Today I will lower my buy level slightly to 1267/1275 with a 1259 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change as I am still long Silver at 15.20 with the same 15.25 T/P level. I will look to add to this position on any further move lower to 14.80 with a 14.60 stop. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.