U.S. Equity Markets remained steady, finishing the day higher led by the Dow with a gain of 0.44%. Jobless Claims surprised to the upside, with another 400,000 individuals having filed for initial jobless claims in the week ending July 24, according to the U.S. Department of Labour. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advanced figures showed economic output increased by 6.5% on an annualised basis. Meanwhile, Pending Home Sales fell by 1.9% in June from the month prior, but remained near record levels on a historical basis. European Markets again closed higher. The European Union Economic Chief Paolo Gentiloni noted current budget rules need to be changed to support further growth and stability. The European Commission’s economic confidence data for July reached an all-time high thanks to a recovery in the manufacturing and services sectors. German unemployment figures for July were weaker than anticipated, as rising business demand drove new hires. The European Union’s COVID-19 vaccinations increased to 460.1 million through yesterday, with more than 207.7 million individuals having been fully vaccinated. In Asia, China Securities Regulatory Commission Vice Chairman Fang Xinghai told major investment banks that recent education policies aren’t intended to hurt other industries. Korean smartphone giant Samsung Electronics reported better-than-expected second-quarter revenue, but forecasts chip supply issues will persist through the remainder of the year. Japanese electronics and automobile stocks were bolstered by carmaker Nissan Motor’s announcement that it was increasing its annual forecast. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.70% after the Energy Information Administration (“EIA”) reported a 2.3-million-barrel decrease in inventories last week, while Gold rose 1.12% on further Dollar weakness.
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The S&P 500 closed 0.42% higher at a price of 4419.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 153 points higher for a 0.44% gain at a price of 35,084.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.20% higher at a price of 15,048.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.8% lower at a price of 27,283.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.1880.
The British Pound closed 0.4% higher at 1.3958.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.3%, closing at $109.60.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at -0.46%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed one basis points lower at 0.56%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.25%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.70% higher at $73.95 a barrel.
Gold closed 1.12% higher at $1,830.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German and Euro-Zone GDP at 9.00 am and 10.00 am respectively. Also, at 10.00 am we have Euro-Zone CPI and the Unemployment Rate. This is followed by U.S. PCE and the Employment Cost Index at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index at 2.45 pm and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 3.00 pm.
This afternoon, we have earnings from Exxon Mobil (XOM) and and CBOE Global Markets (CBOE).
September S&P 500
The S&P made yet another new all-time yesterday, hitting my 4420 sell level before selling off after the close on weaker than expected Amazon Earnings. This sell-off has continued overnight with the S&P now trading over 40 Handles lower at 4377 as I post this commentary. This move lower ties in with the sell-off that I am looking for over the coming weeks. I covered my short position at my 4407 T/P level and I am still flat. Given the large ‘’Open Gap’’ from last night plus the fact that today is month end I am reluctant to chase the S&P lower given that any sell-off has been met by aggressive buying all -year. The S&P has short-term support from 4348/4363 and I will be a buyer in this area with a 4339 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have resistance from 4405/4420 where I will be a seller with a 4431 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 4374. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 4395.
The Euro has surged 150 points of this week’s 1.1750 low print and I am still flat. Building value above 1.1860 this evening will see a move higher to 1.1990, 1.2090/1.2130 and possibly higher. My view is the Dollar will weaken given the current Fed stance. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1830/1.1870 with a higher 1.1785 stop.
September Dollar Index
I am still long and ahead of the weekend I will now lower my buy level to 91.40/90.90 with a lower 90.45 stop.
I am still flat and today I will lower my buy level to 15200/15280 with a lower 15145 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 15335.
No Change. I am still a buyer on any dip lower to 6820/6870 with a lower 6785 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 6905.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow made a new all-time high at 35170 before selling off to sit at 34930 this morning. Although the McClellan Oscillator finally closed in positive territory (+35) I still believe that we are close to an aggressive sell-off given all the reasons outlined in my Daily Commentary over the past two months. As I am away next week, I will now lower my Dow buy level to 34650/34500 with a 34345 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Meanwhile, I will leave my 35250/35400 sell level unchanged with the same 35525 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 34790. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 35140.
The NASDAQ is in my buy range this morning and I am now long in small size at 14840. I will add to this trade at 14760 with a now lower 14905 T/P level. I will leave my 14695 ”Closing Stop” unchanged. The NASDAQ is trading over 200 points from last night’s Chicago close and I would expect some of this gap to be filled.
No Change. I am still a seller from 176.80/177.30 with the same 177.61 stop. If I am taken short I will have a T/P level at 176.45.
Gold Rolling Contract
No Change. My only interest in buying Gold is still on a dip lower to 1780/1795 with the same 1769 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 1804.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am still a buyer from 24.70/25.20 with the same 24.25 stop and 25.65 T/P level if executed.