European Indices rebounded from early morning losses to close higher, in another volatile trading session. Markets were helped by better than expected German Consumer Confidence, while the Minutes from the latest ECB Meeting stated that Monetary Policy Measures and Fiscal response has reduced downside tail risks. ECB Board Member Pablo Hernandez de Cos urged the EU to approve its recovery fund to help European Countries to weather the impact of the Pandemic. The DAX ended the day with a gain of 0.7%, having opened 1% lower. U.S Indices were initially mixed on COVID-19 lockdowns, before rallying into the close. New Coronavirus infections in the U.S continued to surge, approaching the daily high set in April. After announcing that the ICU beds were full in Texas, it paused any future re-opening steps. US Jobless Claims came in worse than expected with a 1.48 million print, which was the second consecutive week of missed expectations. However, the pace at which Claims are falling is slowing and this helped the S&P to rally into the close ending the day with a gain of 1.1%. Markets were also encouraged by announcement by the New York Fed purchasing $80 billion in Treasuries over the next month. Elsewhere, Crude closed 2.63% higher, while Treasuries and Gold closed flat.
To mark my 2100th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on email@example.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 99 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2810 points for June, having made 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February, 2142 points in January and 818 points in December. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
The S&P 500 closed 1.1% higher at 3084 at a price of 3084.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 300 points for a 1.18% rise to close at 25,745.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.0% higher at 10,100.
Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed with a gain of 0.7%.
The FTSE 100 closed 0.40% higher.
This morning the Nikkei closed 1.13% higher at 22,512.
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Euro decreased 0.2% to $1.1226.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% lower at 107.12.
The British Pound closed unchanged at 1.2422 per Dollar.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed unchanged at 0.68%.
Germany’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to -0.46%.
Britain’s 10-year yield fell four basis points to 0.15%.
West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 2.7% to $39.05 a barrel.
Gold weakened 0.2% to $1762.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German May Import Price Index which came in at +0.3%. At 9.00 am we have Euro-Zone Money Supply and this is followed at 12. 00 pm by the Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin. Next, at 1.30 pm we have the U.S. PCE Deflator and Personal Income/Spending. Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
September S&P 500
A market than cannot sell-off on bad news has to be respected. Yesterday was the first day that we saw the S&P rally despite an increase in COVID-19 in Texas and Arizona. One day is not a new trend but there is every chance that the market is looking forward and viewing this increase in cases as temporary. Shortly after I posted yesterday morning, we saw big rallies in the European Indices as the support levels outlined held. This was a major plus and helped drag the US Indices into positive territory with a robust last hour rally. The S&P has an initial Gap from Tuesday’s 3119 close to Wednesday afternoon rebound high at 3105. This Gap will attract buyers, while as mentioned yesterday we still have this massive ‘’Open Gap’’ from February at 3258/3330. Yesterday was the fifth time that the 200 Day Moving Average held, so at least we know where the line in the sand is for setting bearish positions. Today I will raise my buy level to 3028/3043 with a 3015 stop. Ahead of the weekend. My only interest in selling the S&P is on a further rally to 3098/3113 with a 3125 stop.
My Euro plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 1.1200 buy level before rallying to my revised 1.1227 T/P level and I am now flat. Today, I will be a buyer from 1.1140/1.1180 with a 1.1095 stop. I will now lower my sell level to 1.1280/1.1320 with a lower 1.1365 stop.
September Dollar Index
I am still short the Dollar at 97.20 from Wednesday. I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 97.10, while leaving my stop unchanged at 97.75. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Unfortunately, the DAX surged higher just as I posted yesterday morning and I am still flat. This morning the DAX is trading at 12295, which is 350 points higher from where I marked prices 24 hours ago. This is not surprising given the Euro 130 billion stimulus from the German Government. Today I will raise my buy level to 12030/12130 with a wider 11975 stop.
I am still flat the FTSE as the market never came close to my initial 5950 buy level, with the market trading 200 points higher this morning at 6170. Today I will raise my buy level to 6040/6110 with a 5975 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Yesterday was a key trading session for the Dow as the Bears were out in force after Wednesday’s 700 point fall. However, the rebound last night saw the Dow close back above the key trendline support at 25500. As I mentioned yesterday a break and close of 25850 is bullish for next week. Seasonally next week is strong as it is the July 4th Holiday weekend in the U.S. As Friday is a Bank Holiday, the Non-Farm Payrolls will be released next Thursday instead. The late rally in the Dow saw the market hit my 25720 sell level with a 25790 high print before selling off to my revised 25670 T/P level and I am still flat. Today I will raise my buy level to 25220/25420 with a 25035 stop. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the Dow.
Frustratingly the NASDAQ just missed my 9850 buy level by 30 points before surging to close at 10100 last night. Today. I will raise my buy level to 9890/9990 with a 9835 stop. The NASDAQ has strong resistance from 10250/10350 where I will be a seller with a 10425 stop.
Late yesterday the Bund traded higher to my 176.65 sell level before selling off to my revised 176.43 T/P level and I am still flat. Given the level of Central Bank intervention it is extremely difficult to be short Bond Markets but with the Bund trading at -50 Basis Points, who would want to buying Bonds with such a negative yield. The Bund has resistance from 176.95/177.45 where I be a seller with a 177.85 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I still do not trust the price of Gold despite the fact that we are trading at 7-year highs. I will not chase Gold higher and today I will leave my 1715/1725 buy level unchanged with the same 1703 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 16.90/17.30 with a higher 16.55 stop.