With American Markets closed yesterday and only open for a half-day today, trading was subdued across the board. European Markets closed higher, led by the 0.70% gain in the German DAX, while the FTSE again struggled which is no surprise given the ramp higher in Sterling. Bund Yields fell a sizeable 10 Basis points, helping the positive mood while Dollar remained weak. Inflation growth should slow further in November. Ever since the BLS’ CPI began to explode higher in April 2021, energy prices have played a major role. In June 2022, inflation growth rose 9.1%, hitting a near-term peak. However, energy prices – which account for about 9% of the CPI – jumped 41.6% on a year-over-year (“YOY”) basis. The change in energy prices had the largest effect on the overall index. Food prices rose 10.4% while all items less food and energy increased 5.9%. Now, many economists would argue that food and gas prices are not representative of overall inflation because they are so volatile. But these essentials are what we want to pay the most attention to right now. Changes in food and gas prices are taking the biggest toll on households and businesses. I would argue higher gas prices are worse than a tax increase. And given the outsized jump in gas prices relative to the move in food costs, that is where we will notice the largest shift in the inflation trend. In fact, ever since June, gasoline prices have remained in a steady downtrend. Recent data indicates the price at the pump continues to drop. The change points to easing inflation growth. That will act as a tailwind for the S&P. Gasoline is an easy metric to follow because we can receive prices as recently as yesterday. After all, it is difficult for most rural households to do anything without employing the use of an automobile. So, by keeping track, we can get a sense of what costs look like for average Americans. According to data from the American Automobile Association (“AAA”), the national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in October was $3.76 compared with $3.40 a year ago. That is an increase of 10.6% on a YOY basis. The nationwide average month-to-date in November has held steady at $3.76. Like October, that compares with the same $3.40 per gallon from a year ago, signalling costs continue to slide. Now recall, in June, the peak daily price for gas exceeded $5 per gallon. Furthermore, the national average was $4.92 per gallon that month compared with $3.07 per gallon during the same period in 2021. In other words, the month of June experienced 60.3% growth on a YOY basis. In July, those numbers jumped 44%. Those changes drove the CPI higher. Again, gas price data is updated in real-time, while CPI data is not. Based on the up-to-date numbers from AAA, there has been a sharp and steady pullback in fuel costs. That would indicate easing inflation growth. The BLS’ CPI figures for November are due on December 13. The October numbers showed the pace of growth slowed to 7.7% YOY, the lowest level since January. The current data would lean toward inflation growth cooling when the numbers are released. Anything below last month’s result would signal to the Fed that its rate hikes are successfully dampening inflation. A drop in price growth would also support slowing the pace of interest-rate increases going forward. Considering the central bank announces its final policy adjustment for the year on December 14, all eyes will be on the CPI numbers. A steady decline in inflation growth and a change in Fed policy direction would act as a long-term tailwind for the S&P 500. Elsewhere, Oil was closed while Gold rose 0.2%

To mark my 2675th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it was flat yesterday and is still ahead by 3963 points for November, after finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

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