U.S. Equity Markets fell as bond yields were back in focus, finishing the day lower, led by the NASDAQ 100 which closed with a loss of 3.13%. Rising bond yields drove the selling. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 1.7%, hitting the highest level in more than a year. Again, rising bond yields spark concerns of rising borrowing costs among technology companies, which could limit future growth. Headline economic data also did not present a bullish case. Jobless Claims jumped unexpectedly, with Wall Street expecting claims to fall to the lowest level since the pandemic hit. But the four-week moving average for claims moved lower, which is a good sign for the job market’s recovery. And Continuing Claims, which represent those that have filed for unemployment for at least two weeks, continued to decline. Other economic data were positive, as the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Index hit a 50-year high. In contrast, European Indices closed higher. The German Kiel Institute boosted its outlook for Germany’s economic growth from 3.1% to 3.7% on the upward trend in Manufacturing Activity. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said it is not time to get complacent when it comes to policy, adding that the ECB will continue to use all appropriate measures to support the economy. EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen was said to have threatened to curb vaccine exports, looking to boost supply across Europe first. The Bank of England left Interest Rates unchanged, though Bank of England’s chief economist said that he expects a “rapid-fire” recovery for the British economy. Elsewhere, Oil got crushed, closing 8.26% lower on reports that China was making heavy investment in renewable energy, while Gold rose 0.29% on follow through as the Federal Reserve said it would keep policy accommodative.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 65 points yesterday and is now ahead by 2329 points for March, having closed February with an impressive gain of 3286 points, having made 2077 points in January, 2273 points in December, 2025 points in November, 2779 points in October, 3042 points in September, 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, and an incredible 9264 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The S&P 500 closed 1.48% lower at a price of 3915.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 153 points lower for a 0.46% loss at a price of 32,862.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 3.13% lower at a price of 12,789.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% higher.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 1.41% lower at a price of 29,792.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.5% lower at $1.1915.
The British Pound closed 0.7% lower at $1.3910.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.1% lower at 108.95 per dollar.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed two basis points lower at -0.29%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points higher at 0.87%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed two basis points higher at 1.71%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 8.26% lower at $57.44 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.29% higher at $1,749.80 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of German PPI which rose 0.7% versus +0.8% expected. The only other data of note due to be released today on either side of the Atlantic is Canadian Retail Sales at 12.30 pm.
June S&P 500
At 1.35 pm this afternoon, the March Contract will finally expire. In what is known as Quadruple Expiration, the Options Contracts will not expire until 8.00 pm. These expiration sessions can be difficult to trade. With the McClellan Oscillator closing at -62 last night from +52 on Wednesday, I am expecting a more meaningful correction as March comes to an end. We still have a confirmed Hindenburg Omen from earlier this month, which is valid for three months. Since 1987 every crash in the US Market has happened after we got a confirmed HO. Remember this is the first HO since February 2020 before the market sold off 35%. Yesterday the S&P traded lower to my 3934 buy level before rallying to my 3943 revised T/P level and I am still flat. The S&P has support from 3873/3888 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 3859 ‘’Closing Stop’’. We have resistance from 3938/3953 where I will be a seller with a 3965 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
The Euro traded lower to my 1.1910 buy level. I am still long and I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 1.1940. I will now raise my stop on this position to 1.1895.
June Dollar Index
The Dollar traded higher to my 91.85 sell level. I am still short and I will now raise my T/P level on this position to 91.65. At the same time I will lower my stop to 92.05 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
I am still flat. Today I will continue to be a buyer from 14500/14580 with the same 14435 tight stop. Even though the DAX is trading lower at 14700 this morning, I am not going to chase the market lower and I will leave my 14820/14900 sell level unchanged with a tighter 14975 stop.
Overnight, the FTSE traded lower to my 6660 buy level. I am still long and I will now lower my T/P level on this position to 6690. I will add to this trade at 6620 while raising my stop to 6585.
Dow Rolling Contract
My latest 31130 short position worked well with the market trading lower to my 30020 T/P level and I am still flat. The rise in Bond Yields continues to support the Dow as the Financial Shares make new highs. The Dow has support from 32540/32700 where I will be a small buyer with a 32390 ‘’Closing Stop’’. The Dow has resistance from 33080/33280 where I will be a seller with a 33425 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
The rise in 10-Year Yields to a 14-month high of 1.73% weighed heavily on Technology Stocks resulting in the whole of yesterday’s buy range getting filled for a 12960 average buy level before stopping me out near the close at 12825 and I am now flat. Overnight the NASDAQ hit a low of 12715 before bouncing to sit at 12850 this morning. The NASDAQ has strong support from 12600/12700 where I will be a buyer with a 12495 ‘’Closing Stop’’. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the NASDAQ at this time.
Despite the increase in US Yields the Bund is not affected as no doubt the ECB are in buying the market. How much longer they can control the Yield Curve with bond Yields in negative territory is difficult to gage. I will now raise my buy level to 170.20/170.80 with a higher 169.85 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat and I will now raise my buy level to 1705/1718 with a 1695 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
Silver just missed my 25.60 buy level and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 25.15/25.80 with a higher 24.65 stop.