U.S Equity Markets fell sharply yesterday before turning around and cutting losses in half by the close. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi rejected calls for a new vote on a smaller Stimulus Bill, dashing hopes that the two sides could reach a quick compromise. Weekly Jobless Claims fell by less than expected last week, raising concerns that the recovery in the job market has stalled. Housing starts and Building Permits, two key indicators of new home construction, fell in August from the prior month, indicating that homebuilders slowed construction expectations. Headlines that the White House was concerned over the Oracle-TikTok deal weighed on technology shares as the NASDAQ led the decline, closing lower by 1.5%. In Europe, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee held Interest Rates steady and said that it had considered using negative rates. The Bank of England also warned of an uncertain outlook for the economy. German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said the Country plans to raise $118 billion in new debt next year in order to fund stimulus measures, up from the previous estimate of $94 billion. Euro-Zone new car registration data for August fell versus July, signalling consumer spending may be losing some momentum. Elsewhere, Oil closed 2.27% higher, building on Wednesday’s 5% rally due to the large drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.
To mark my 2150th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 367 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1616 points for September, having made 2383 points in August, 3128 points in July, 2580 points in June, 2456 points in May, 4773 points in April, an incredible 9264 points in March, 2223 points in February and 2142 points in January. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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The S&P 500 closed 0.84% lower at a price of 3357.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 130 points lower for a 0.47% loss at a price of 27,901.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.48% lower at a price of 11,080.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.3% lower.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7%%.
This morning the Nikkei closed 0.18% higher at 23,360.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index again closed 0.2% lower.
The Euro closed unchanged at $1.1810.
The British Pound closed 0.3% lower at $1.2952.
The Japanese Yen closed 0.3% higher at 104.73 per dollar.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries closed one basis point higher at 0.68%.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed unchanged at -0.49%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed four basis points lower at 0.18%.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.3%.
West Texas Intermediate closed 2.27% higher at $41.06 a barrel.
Gold closed unchanged at $1949.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we already had the release of August Retail Sales which came in at +0.6% versus +0.7% expected. Also released earlier was German August PPI which came in as expected with a 0.00% print. At 9.00 am we have the Euro-Zone Current Account and a speech from ECB Member De Guindos. At 1.30 pm we have Canadian Retail Sales, Finally, at 3.00 pm we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
December S&P 500
MY S&P plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 3322 buy level before rallying to my 3336 T/P level and I am now flat. Even though the VIX only closed higher by 1.6% at 26.46, the S&P traded in a wide range as we wait for Quadruple Witching Expiration for the September Contracts later today. These ”Expirations” can be difficult to trade as the Options Contracts do not expire until near the close at 9.00 pm. The December 50 Day MA comes in at 3329 and so far this key indicator has held any S&P sell-off five times over the past two weeks. Today, I will be a small buyer from 3312/3325 with a 3299 stop. The S&P just missed my 3365 sell level with a 3363 high print before trading lower and I am still flat. Ahead of the weekend I will now raise my sell level to 3378/3392 with a 3405 tight stop.
Overnight the Euro traded higher to my 1.1860 sell level. As I wanted to be flat ahead of this morning’s Daily Commentary I covered this position at my revised 1.1850 T/P level as emailed earlier to my Platinum Members and I am now flat. The Euro bounced well of yesterday’s 1.1737 low print. For the Euro to reverse lower we need to break and close below the 50 Day MA at 1.1735. I will now raise my buy level to 1.1720/1.1770 with a tight 1.1685 stop. Ahead of the weekend I do not want to be short the Euro at this time.
December Dollar Index
The Dollar sold off to my 93.10 buy level before rallying to my revised 93.22 T/P level and I am still flat. The Dollar has strong support from 92.10/92.60 where I will be a buyer with a 91.65 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 92.95.
Every dip continues to be bought in the DAX and this theme will continue as long as we do not break and close below 12900. Shortly after I posted yesterday morning the DAX rallied to my 13110 T/P level on my 13060 average long position and I am still flat. This morning, the DAX is opening higher at 13190. We have support from 12970/13040 where I will be a buyer with a 12885 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
My latest 5995 average long FTSE position worked well with the market trading higher to my 6020 T/P level and I am still flat. The renewed strength in Sterling sees the FTSE under pressure this morning. The FTSE has strong support from 5910/5960 where I will be a buyer with a 5875 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
Shortly after I posted the Dow traded higher to my 27740 T/P level on my 27650 average long position and I am now flat. The Dow traded in a wide range before a late rally cut most of it’s 400 point intra-day loss. The Dow has support from 27450/27650 where I will again be a buyer with a 27295 wider stop. Until the Dow can break and close below it’s 50 Day MA (27433) I will continue to be a buyer on dips.
Frustratingly the NASDAQ missed my 10900 initial buy level with a 10902 low print before rallying to sit at 11120 as I go to press. I will now raise my buy level to 10850/10970 with a higher 10775 stop.
The BUND traded in a narrow range yesterday and I am still flat. I will continue to be a buyer on any dip lower to 173.10/173.50 with the same 172.75 stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold fell shy of my 1927 buy level with a 1932 low print and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level slightly to 1921/1933 with a 1908 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
My latest 26.70 long Silver position worked well with the market trading higher to my 27.10 T/P level and I am now flat. Today. I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 26.25/26.65 with a 25.85 tight stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 27.05.