U.S. stocks rose and Treasuries slumped anew as the rebound in risk assets from the trade-fomented sell-off continued. The S&P 500 capped a third day of gains, but faded into the close to finish just above its average price over the last 50 trading sessions. Solid earnings from Cisco Systems Inc. and Walmart Inc., along with strong housing data, boosted shares. However, trade tensions remained in the background as the Trump administration threatened to blacklist China’s Huawei Technologies Co. and Walmart warned tariffs would lead to higher consumer prices. The 10-year yield topped 2.39% and the US Dollar strengthened.
To mark my 1825th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoblecom for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 162 points yesterday and is now ahead by 1234 points for May, having made 955 points in April, 1027 points in March, 1013 points in February, 1671 points in January, 2803 points in December, 1541 points in November and 2094 points in October. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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Strong economic data and earnings, along with hints from the Trump administration that it may be willing to compromise on trade has helped stocks bounce back from the battering they took when the tariff battle with China flared last week. But the headlines have come fast and furiously, most recently President Donald Trump signed an order that’s expected to restrict Chinese telecommunications firms from selling in the U.S. The S&P 500 Index closed 0.9% higher. However the Futures Market is down 0.5% on a softer risk tone this morning. The Nasdaq 100 also closed with a gain of 0.8%. In Europe The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 1.3% and the FTSE 100 Index by 0.9%. Meanwhile Emerging Market shares fell for the third time in four trading sessions.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.3% as the Dollar closed on the highs of the day. This move higher in the Dollar saw the Euro dip 0.2% to $1.1174. Elsewhere, the Pound dropped for a ninth day versus the Euro — the longest losing streak since 2000 — as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May faced a new threat to oust her. The Pound decreased 0.4% to $1.2795, reaching the weakest in three months.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed two basis points to 2.40%. Meanwhile in Europe both Britain’s 10-year yield and Germany’s Bund rose one basis point to close at 1.074% and -0.10% respectively.
West Texas Intermediate crude increased 1.7% to $63.08 a barrel. The stronger US Dollar saw Gold fall 0.8% to $1,286.80 an ounce as the 1300/1310 resistance area again proved difficult to penetrate.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone CPI and Construction Output at 10.00 am. This is followed at 3.00 pm by University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Finally the Fed’s Clarida and Williams are speaking at 6.40 pm and 7.00 pm respectively.
June S&P 500
My S&P plan did not work well as the good start we had to May came to an end with the S&P trading higher to my average sell level at 2861 before stopping me out of this position at 2875 and I am now flat. The S&P made a rebound high at 2892 which was 50 Handles higher from where I marked prices 24 hours ago before selling off this morning to sit at 2867 as I go to press. Yesterday’s close at 2876 could be significant as the market having closed below its 50 Day Moving Average (2866) managed to claw itself back above this key level yesterday. If the S&P can hold this key MA this evening in Chicago then we could see the market move higher next week. The theme of buying the dip for the last 10 years continues despite some large shakeouts along the way. Given the amount of Central Bank QE over this time there is no way they are gong to let the market crash without a fight. The S&P has strong resistance from 2887/2900 and today I will be a seller in this area with a 2910 stop. Given the fact that we had an upside Key Day Reversal on Wednesday followed by an extension of this rally yesterday I will now raise my buy level higher to 2848/2858 with a 2839 stop.
Finally we are seeing the Euro move away from trading with a 1.12 Handle. I am still flat and today I will now lower my buy level to 1.1080/1.1125 with a lower 1.1045 stop. I will also lower my sell level to 1.1230/1.1370 with a 1.1305 stop.
June Dollar Index
Overnight the Dollar traded higher to my 97.70 sell level. I no longer want to be short and I have now covered this position here at 97.62 and I am now flat. The Dollar has stronger resistance from 98.10/98.50 and I will again look to sell the market here with a 98.80 stop.
Just like the US Indices the DAX also continues to be a buy on dips. Thankfully we had no sell level in this market yesterday with the DAX now trading 300 points higher than the lows made on Wednesday. Today I will now raise my buy level to 12050/12120 with a 11975 stop.
The FTSE hit my 7305 sell level before rallying to my second sell level overnight for a now average short position at 7322. I am still short and I will now lower my stop on this position to 7360. I will also raise my T/P level to 7295 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Dow Rolling Contract
After the Dow traded higher to my 25780 sell level I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any short position at 25745 as I was already short the S&P and I am now flat. Yesterday the Dow made a high of 25950 before selling off 150 points to sit at 25800 this morning. The Dow has strong resistance from 25940/26080 and I will be a seller on any rally to this area with a 26150 stop. With the 200 Day Moving Average again holding the market I will now raise my buy level to 25410/25570 with a 25285 stop.
Unfortunately the NASDAQ missed my T/P level before rallying to stop me out at 7565 on my 7500 short position and I am now flat. Today I will again look to sell the NASDAQ on any further move higher to 7640/7690 with a 7735 stop. I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time.
No Change as I am still a seller on any further rally to 167.55/167.95 with the same 168.25 tight stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat Gold which had a bad session yesterday closing 0.8% lower. I will now lower my buy level to 1268/1275 with a 1261 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still long Silver at 14.80 having rejected the chance to exit earlier in the week at 14.85. Today I will now lower my stop on this position to 14.25 while reinstating my 14.85 T/P level. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.