U.S. Equity Markets reversed earlier gains before having an aggressive sell-off into the close. The NASDAQ 100 led the declines closing lower by 1.80%. This was a nasty sell-off as the VIX ended yesterday’s session with a gain of 18% at a price of 22.61 Jobless Claims saw an uptick of Americans applying for jobless benefits, indicating that the labour market could be close to a softening trend. The Challenger Job Cuts Report for February showed that another 77,770 jobs were terminated. The year-to-date two-month total marks the highest cumulative amount since 2009. Investors are keen to see this afternoon’s latest employment data and next week’s update on inflation as they look for definitive signs of what the Fed’s policy decision could be in a few weeks. Within the S&P 500 Index, all the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed lower. French Fourth Quarter Payroll Growth showed improvement in private sector job creation, growing 0.20% compared with 0.10% consensus, but less than third-quarter growth. ECB member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that French inflation should peak by the second quarter and the ECB will remain committed to lowering inflation. The British Chambers of Commerce’s latest forecast showed that the nation’s economy is expected to contract at a less severe rate and that a technical recession – two consecutive quarters of contraction – may be avoidable. European Central Bank deposit facility rate futures are now pricing in a peak interest rate of 4.1% compared with the 3.4% peak just a month ago, weighing on the growth outlook. In Asia, China’s CPI and PPI growth February for was weaker than expected as post-Lunar New Year holiday demand eased. Japan’s final Fourth Quarter Economic Output Growth was much weaker than the initial estimate due to downward revisions in consumer spending figures. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said the financial stress that higher interest rates has caused for households is a good reason to consider stopping interest-rate hikes. Japan’s lower house of Parliament approved the appointment of Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan Governor. Elsewhere, Oil fell 1.45% while Gold surprisingly rose 0.93%.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 790 points yesterday and is now ahead by 587 points for March after finishing February with a gain of 3164 points, after closing January with a gain of 4687 points, while finishing December with a gain of 2054 points. November ended with a gain of 4789 points, while finishing October with a record gain of 9619 points, making 6660 points in September, after closing August with a gain of 2228 points, having made 2660 points in July, following a gain of 3371 points in June. The Service made 3651 points in May, after making 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
The S&P 500 closed 1.18% lower at a price of 3918
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 543 points lower for a 1.66% loss at a price of 32,254.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.80% lower at a price of 11,995.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.19% lower.
Yesterday, the MSCI Asia Pacific fell 0.22%.
Yesterday, the Nikkei closed 0.63% higher at a price of 28,623.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.
The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0581.
The British Pound closed 0.6% higher at 1.1921.
The Japanese Yen rose 0.8% closing at $136.12.
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 4 basis points lower at 2.61%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 3 basis points higher at 3.80%.
U.S.10 Year Treasury closed 7 basis points lower at 3.91%.
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 1.45% lower at $75.55 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.93% higher at $1829.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have German CPI at 7.00 am. At the same time, we have U.K. Trade Balance and Industrial Production. Next, we have a speech from ECB Member Panetta at 9.00 am. This is followed by U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls including Average Earnings and the Unemployment Rate at 1.30 pm. Finally, we have a speech from ECB President Lagarde at 3.00 pm.
Cash S&P 500
Yesterday was ugly especially after the earlier rip higher that was met by aggressive selling. This move had panic and liquidations written all over it as key Moving Averages were broken in the process. The move lower was led by SVB Financial Group falling over 60% a day after the Silvergate disaster and the entire banking complex got taken down with it. This move lower saw the 14 Day RSI for the Bank Index at its lowest level since the COVID Crash. The December lows were broken in the process adding to the fear and subsequent liquidations into the close. I do not remember a period for my Service in the 10 years that I have been writing Tradernoble that this service lost 1000 points three weeks ago and over 700 yesterday. After the S&P hit my 3967 average buy level I stopped myself out at 3939 as emailed to my Platinum Members. After the close I emailed them that I bought the S&P again at 3914. I do not normally do this ahead of the key NFP data this afternoon, but with Bond Yields falling along with the Dollar I am seeing some positive divergences. I will add to this position at 3890 with a now 3879 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will have a 3945 T/P level on this position. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
No Change. I am still long the Euro from Tuesday at an average rate of 1.0590. I will leave my 1.0495 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now raise my T/P level to 1.0665, given the impressive price action in the wake of the falling Equity Markets. If any of the above levels are hit, I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar traded in a narrow range yesterday. I am still short at 105.30 with the same 104.90 T/P level. I will leave my 106.10 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. If this view changes I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Remarkably the DAX closed higher yesterday despite the across the board sell-off in American Indexes. I am still flat. As I am already long four Indexes overnight, I will stay flat the DAX until Monday. In my Opinion the DAX cannot ignore the fundamental economic news forever. The price action is telling you not to be short and I do not want to be long the market ahead of today’s key NFP Report and Lagarde speech this afternoon.
The FTSE traded lower to my 7860 buy level. I am still long and I will now add to this position at 7780 while leaving my 7735 ‘’Closing Stop’’ unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 7900.
Dow Rolling Contract
Wrong!! A frustrating trading session as the Dow just missed my 33050 T/P level before falling almost 800 points from early afternoon highs. The Bank Shares led the decline as shown by the Bank Index closing lower by a hefty 7.70%. The price action was ugly as the Dow closed below its 50 Day Moving Average (33506) and 200 Day MA (32392). I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 32450. Given the positive divergences mentioned above in the S&P, I bought the Dow again after the close at a price of 32220. I will add to this position at 31950. I will have a T/P level at 32480 while my stop will be at 31795 ‘’Closing Price’’.
Cash NASDAQ 100
Although the NDX led yesterday’s decline the market managed to close over both its 50 and 200 Day MA’s at 11904 and 11860 respectively. This move lower has me long at an average rate of 12035. I will now lower my T/P level to 12130 while lowering my stop to a 11845 ‘’Closing Price’’.
I am still flat. The Bund had a nice rally. I will now raise my buy level to 130.50/131.30 with a higher 129.85 ‘’Closing Stop’’
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold rallied to my 1828 T/P level on my 1823 average long position and I am now flat. Gold has support from 1790/1805 where I will again be a buyer with a 1779 ‘’Closing Stop’’.
Silver Rolling Contract
No Change. I am now 300 points offside on Silver. I have bought some Silver here for my pension on the New York close on Tuesday. I will also add to my existing 23.10 Silver position at a price of 19.70. I will have a ‘’Closing Stop’’ at 18.95 on the whole position. I will have no T/P level for now. If my 19.70 buy level is filled I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.