U.S. stocks fell as weak manufacturing data and renewed concern on trade rattled markets adjusting to the Federal Reserve’s signal that it’s done easing. Treasuries, Gold and the Japanese Yen rose. The S&P 500 declined after a regional Manufacturing gauge missed estimates and Jobless Claims rose more than forecast. The Index was under pressure following a Bloomberg report that Chinese officials have warned they won’t budge on the thorniest trade issues. Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc., two of the four biggest U.S. companies, rose after earnings, preventing steeper losses in the major averages. Treasuries extended a rally that began Wednesday after the Federal Reserve cut rates and signalled it won’t consider raising them until inflation picks up. The 10-year yield slipped below 1.75%, as the bond market remains unconvinced the Fed is done easing, pricing in another cut by July. Data showed the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge matched the slowest pace since 2016, while U.S. Consumer spending trailed forecasts.
To mark my 1925th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2 year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day To demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on firstname.lastname@example.org for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 130 points yesterday to finish October with a gain of 1649, having made 1620 points in September, 2387 points in August, 1153 points in July, 1346 points in June,1722 points in May, 955 points in April and 1027 points in March. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points
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While the Fed’s signal that it won’t rush to raise rates buoyed risk assets Wednesday, the weak economic data and fresh trade uncertainty reminded investors the central bank also has no intention of easing further after three straight cuts.
The S&P 500 Index decreased 0.3% to close at 3037.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%, closing at 27044 and the Nasdaq 100 fell just 0.1%.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.5% to 396, which is the lowest reading in more than a week.
Here is a summary of the main Changes in F.X. Markets:
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.
The Euro was flat at $1.1152.
The Japanese Yen added 0.8% to 107.98 per dollar.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries lost five basis points to 1.69%, which is the lowest in more than three weeks, on the biggest tumble in more than eleven weeks.
The two-year yield slipped eight basis points to 1.54%.
Germany’s 10-year yield decreased five basis points to -0.41%.
Gold Futures increased 1.1% to $1,512 an ounce which is its highest close in more than five weeks.
West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.8% to $54.10 a barrel.
This morning on the Economic Front we have UK Manufacturing PMI at 9.30 am. This is followed at 12.30 pm by U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, including the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. At 1.45 pm we have Markit Manufacturing PMI. Finally, at 2.00 pm we have ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending. Later this afternoon Fed Members Williams, Quarles and Clarida are speaking at 4.00 pm, 5.00 pm and 5.15 pm respectively.
December S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the S&P trading lower to my initial 3035 buy level before rallying back above 3043 and I used this move higher to exit this long position at my revised 3038 T/P level. Subsequently I emailed my Platinum Members to re-buy the S&P at 3024 with a 3031 T/P level and I am now flat. With NFP data due at the earlier of time of 12.30 pm as the U.S Clocks do not change until this weekend I will continue to be a buyer on dips until the now key 3000/3010 support area is broken. Today my buy level will be from 3017/3032 with a wider 3006 stop. Ahead of the weekend and that fact that today is the start of a new month I do not want to be short the S&P at this time.
I am still flat the Euro which again missed my buy level yesterday. Ahead of the NFP data I will now lower my buy level slightly to 1.1070/1.1110 with a lower 1.1025 stop.
December Dollar Index
No Change as I am still a seller on any rally higher to 97.70/98.10 with the same 95.45 stop.
My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower 12830 buy level before rallying to my 12875 T/PM level and I am now flat. Today I will again look to buy the DAX from 12730/12790 with a 12675 stop.
The FTSE traded the whole of my buy range for a now average long position at 7265. I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position for a small loss at 7250 and this has now being filled as I go to press. Today I will be a buyer on any dip lower to 7180/7225 with a 745 tight stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
My Dow plan also worked well with the market trading lower to my 27070 buy level before rallying to my revised 27110 T/P level and I am now flat. The Dow subsequently made a low just above 26900 before spending the rest of the session trading sideways to higher. As long as the Dow cannot break its July 16 high of 26398 I am extremely worried about the ongoing negative divergence between the Dow and both the S&P and NASDAQ. Today I will again look to buy the Dow on any dip lower to 26820/26970 with a tight 26730 stop.
The NASDAQ only fell 0.1% yesterday helped by the rally in both Facebook and Apple shares. Today I will lower my sell level to 8230/8290 with a 8345 stop. I still do not want to be long the NASDAQ at this time.
The BUND opened higher and spent the rest of session making further process closing above 171.75. Today I will move my buy level higher to 170.80/171.20 with a 170.45 higher stop.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold closed at its highest level in five weeks as thankfully we have had no sell levels in this market. Today I will raise my buy level to 1482/1492 with a 1474 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat Silver with the market underperforming Gold yesterday. I will now Raise my buy level again to 17.40/17.80 with a 17.15 tight stop.