U.S. Equity Markets finished the Quarter with more selling as the NASDAQ 100 led the declines with a loss of 1.33%. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Consumption Expenditures, jumped by 6.3% year-over-year in May. This was in line with April’s number and lower than March’s 6.6%. Excluding food and fuel, the reading showed an increase of 4.7% compared with the prior 4.9%. On a monthly basis, the core measure gained 0.3% versus the previous month as well. The data could signal that while the total figure grew on an annual basis, inflation may be moderating. But while there are some positive indications in the report, other factors remain a concern. May’s Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) showed that consumer prices are at their fastest pace in four decades. Meanwhile, the Labour Department’s Jobless Claims trended lower to 231,000 for the week ended on June 25. This indicates jobless claims are holding steady, potentially pointing to a slowdown in economic activity. These relatively low numbers may also imply tension in the labour market, despite some signs of rising unemployment. Within the S&P 500, eight of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets tumbled despite a late rally in the last hour of trading. France’s preliminary Consumer Price Index growth for June hit its highest level since the formation of the Euro-Zone, supporting additional interest-rate hikes. German Retail Sales growth for May was stronger than expected. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow’s relationship with Sweden and Norway is certain to sour if the two countries press forward with decisions to join NATO. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned it may be forced to increase the pace of interest-rate hikes due to persistently high inflation. In Asia, China’s official composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) figures for June rebounded into expansion territory after the government eased COVID-19 restrictions. Japan’s Consumer Confidence numbers for June and Industrial Production growth for May shrank compared to the month prior, signalling slowing economic growth. The People’s Bank of China pledged to stabilise consumer prices and employment to support economic activity. Japanese utilities said they would try and secure additional natural gas supplies as Tokyo residents deal with a record heat wave. Elsewhere, Oil fell 3.53% after the U.S. Supreme Court released a ruling saying the Environment Protective Agency had no authority in regulating carbon emissions, while Gold fell 0.65% as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed potential cooling.

To mark my 2575th issue of TraderNoble Daiy Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 195 points yesterday, to close June with a gain of 3371 points June after making 3651 points in May, having made 762 points in April, following a gain of 5883 points in March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification 

 

Equities

 

The S&P 500 closed 0.88% lower at a price of 3785.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 253 points lower for a 0.82% loss at a price of 30,775.

The NASDAQ 100 closed 1.33% lower at a price of 11,503.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 1.6% lower.

This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%.

This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.60% lower at a price of 25,969

Currencies 

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% lower.

The Euro closed 0.3% higher at $1.0478.

The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.2131.

The Japanese Yen rose 1% closing at $135.12.

Bonds

Germany’s 10-year yield closed 17 basis points lower at 1.34%.

Britain’s 10-year yield closed 15 basis points lower at 2.24%.

US 10 Year Treasury closed 12 basis points lower at 2.96%.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude closed 3.53% lower at $105.56 a barrel.

Gold closed 0.65% lower at $1807.10 an ounce.

This morning on the Economic Front we have German, Euro-Zone and U.K Global Manufacturing PMI at 8.55 am, 9.00 am and 9.30 am respectively. This is followed by Euro-Zone CPI at 10.00 am and U.S. Global Manufacturing PMI at 2.45 pm. Finally, we have ISM Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending at 3.00 pm

Cash S&P 500

It was brutal month for the S&P, down over 3% on the week and 8% for the month, capping off the worst six months for the S&P since 1970. However, the second half of 1970 saw a gain of 27% from its H1 lows. Not helping the economy from having or already being in a recession is the inversion of the yield curve and the huge drop in Commodity prices over the past three months like Copper, Steel, Lumber and in the last few days the big fall in Oil. The Fed, in my opinion have lost all credibility over the past 14 months from saying that inflation is transitory to in recent weeks how strong the U.S. Economy is, implying and that much higher interest rates are needed. With a military budget of $746 bn there is absolutely no chance of Fed Funds approaching the 3.8% dot plot forecast as this would guarantee interest payments of over $1 trillion per year, while trillions of dollars of debt will have to be financed at higher rates this year and next. The Fed will have to flip flop soon and the huge fall in Global Bond Yields yesterday is telling you this. The Fed are completely misreading the economy again.  My S&P plan worked well yesterday as the S&P had a nice rally after tagging its Weekly 150 Moving Average (3748) with a rebound high to 3818. I bought the S&P at 3749 before covering this position too early at 3769 and I am now flat. The S&P had a nasty sell-off into the close and overnight we have seen more selling with the S&P again tagging the 3748 support level. With markets closed on Monday for Independence Day I am not giving up hope of a late Friday rally. The S&P has support from 3720/3740 where I will be a buyer with a 3695 ‘’Closing Stop’’. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 3773.

EUR/USD

My Euro plan worked well with the market trading higher to my 1.0485 sell level before trading lower this morning and I have now exited this short position here at 1.0435. Today, I will again be a seller from 1.0500/1.0560 with a 1.0605 stop. The Euro has support from 1.0310/1.0370 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 1.0255 stop.

March Dollar Index

I had the right idea being short the Dollar. However, my stop was too tight, as I was stopped out of my 104.45 short position near the high of the day at 105.05 and I am still flat. This morning, the Dollar is lower at 104.50. We have resistance from 105.10/105.70 where I will again be a seller with a 106.25 stop.

Cash DAX

My DAX plan worked well with the market trading lower to my 12630 buy level before rallying over 200 points into the close. Unfortunately, I covered this long position too early at 12690 and I am now flat. With so many positions getting executed at the same time I could not hang on to them all given the excessive risk. This morning the DAX is opening 1% lower at 12670. We have strong support from 12500/12600 where I will again be a buyer with a 12395 stop.

Cash FTSE

The FTSE sold off to my second buy level at 7125 for a 7155 average long position. Subsequently, we had a nice rally into the close, enabling me to cover this position at my revised 7205 T/P level and I am now flat. This morning, the FTSE is following the rest of the market lower, trading at 7130 as I go to press. We have strong support from 7010/7070 where I will be an aggressive buyer with a 6945 stop.

Dow Rolling Contract

I was lucky yesterday as the Dow rallied over 500 points off the afternoon low to hit my 30980 exit level on my latest 31110 long position. Subsequently the Dow gave up most of these gains into the close and again this morning, trading at 30470 as I go to press. I bought the Dow again at an average rate of 30720. I am still long with a 30395 ‘’Closing Stop’’ while  I will have a T/P level at 30950. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Cash NASDAQ 100

My NDX plan did worked well with the market trading lower to my 11430 buy level before rallying to my 11525 revised T/P level. Lower bond yields should help tech stocks over the coming weeks especially given how oversold the NDX is at this time. The NDX has further support from 11180/11330 where I will again be a buyer with a 10995 lower stop. Meanwhile, I am still long at 14327, as I look for a further rally to 12900 to exit this position that I have now owned since April.

September BUND

The Bund just missed yesterday’s buy range before surging over 200 points. I am still flat and I am going to stay flat the Bund today given the fact that Bund yields have fallen over 50 basis points in the last few days. This is a massive move with the Bund now trading over 700 points higher off last week’s low print.

Gold Rolling Contract

Gold has got hit hard overnight, hitting yesterday’s buy range in the process. I am now long here at 1794 and will add to this position at 1780 with a now lower 1769 ‘’Closing Stop’’. I will now lower my T/P level to 1808 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.

Silver Rolling Contract

My Silver plan did not work well. I bought the market again at 20.40 for a 20.75 average long position before getting stopped this morning at 19.95. Silver is trading at multi-year lows. As a result, I have bought the market again here at 19.80. I will add to this position at 19.00 with an 18.35 stop. My T/P level on this position will be 20.60.