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U.S. Indices closed higher on Wednesday, tracking Europe higher throughout the morning. US indices peaked around the US open before paring into the European close, before pushing higher into the US close. Sectors were predominantly green with Utilities, Communication and Technology leading, with Consumer Staples, Energy and Real Estate lagging. NVIDIA (NVDA) was responsible for some of the upside, with the stock becoming the first company to reach a USD 4 trillion market cap. There was little US data to digest, but the Q2 Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker was maintained at 2.6%. With the focus largely on trade updates, Trump continued to reveal more tariff letters (Philippines 20% vs 17% Liberation Day tariff; Libya 30% vs 31%; Iraq 30% vs 39%, Brunei 25% vs 24%, Algeria 30% vs 30%, Sri Lanka 30% vs 44%, Moldova 25% vs 31%), with the Brazil numbers set to be announced later. On the EU, reports suggest they are not going to receive a letter from the US, but it is aiming to reach a US deal before 1st August, and potentially over the coming days. It was also reported that the EU will face a higher tariff than the UK, but talks are ongoing. The FOMC minutes saw little reaction but confirmed a split rate outlook view on the Fed, in fitting with the June 2025 dot plots, although it did seem to confirm that only Waller and Bowman are willing to consider a July rate cut. It also revealed that several participants said the current Fed Funds rate may not be far above its neutral rate. T-notes rallied in the European session despite the upside in equities, with apparent short-covering the driver for the move higher, given the surge in yields since the beginning of July (yield from 4.187% to 4.435%). Meanwhile, the 10-year T-note auction was in line with recent averages. Oil settled flat in a choppy session, seeing upside on EIA data and Senator Thune’s commentary about Russia sanctions, but paring on Gaza ceasefire hopes. Gold prices were bid with the upside largely a function of the move lower in UST yields. FX majors saw little change, although the Canadian Dollar underperformed with the Dollar flat. However, the Brazilian Dollar lagged in the EMFX space in anticipation of Trump’s tariff announcement later. Note, Brazil’s Liberation Day tariff was the baseline 10% rate. Overall, the FOMC minutes revealed a split committee on the outlook for rates (as was alluded to by the June Dot Plots). The latest FOMC Minutes showed most participants saw some reduction in the Fed Funds rate this year as appropriate, though only a couple—likely Waller and Bowman—would be open to considering a cut as soon as July if data evolves as expected. Some participants judged no rate cuts would be needed, citing elevated inflation readings, sticky expectations, and resilient economic activity. However, most participants saw some reduction in the Fed Funds rate this year as appropriate. On the neutral rate, several said that the current policy rate may not be far from neutral, while all agreed in June that it was appropriate to keep rates on hold. On inflation, a few noted limited recent progress on core inflation, while there were also concerns that lower- and moderate-income households are increasingly trading down due to price pressures. On the labour market, most believed higher tariffs or greater policy uncertainty would weigh on demand, with many expecting a gradual softening; a few flagged emerging signs of weakness and said they would watch for further deterioration. While participants agreed risks of higher inflation and weaker employment had diminished, they remain elevated, and although uncertainty has eased slightly—helped by fewer announced or expected tariffs—it is still high. Elsewhere, Fed staff revised up their 2025 real GDP growth forecast and saw slightly lower inflation than before. Meanwhile, the New York Fed’s SOMA chief noted market participants now expect the balance sheet runoff to conclude by February 2026 (vs January 2026 prior), with the Fed’s portfolio projected at USD 6.2 trillion (around 20% of GDP), with reserves at USD 2.9 trillion and ONRRP balances remaining low. Elsewhere, Oil closed flat while Gold ended Wednesday’s session with a small 0.4% gain.

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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 180 points yesterday and is now ahead by 975 points for July after closing June with a gain of 3530 points, having closed May with a gain of 3606 points, after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking