Futures Trading Education

U.S. Equity Markets Stocks closed positive on Wednesday with outperformance in the NASDAQ 100 while the Russell 2000 again underperformed. The Nasdaq was supported by gains in Tech, Consumer Discretionary and Communication names, the outperforming sectors, while Energy, Materials and Financials lagged. Tech was buoyed by the strong Salesforce (CRM) and Marvell (MRVL) earnings after-hours on Tuesday. T-notes were bid with upside primarily supported by a big miss on the ISM Services PMI, falling to 52.1, beneath all analyst forecasts. The ADP National Employment saw a slight miss but not enough to change the dial or cause a reshape of expectations for Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow. Meanwhile, the focus was largely on Fed speak – Fed Chair Powell added little new but he was optimistic on the economy and noted the Fed is on a path to more neutral rates over time, and that the Fed can be cautious in finding the neutral rate. The lack of commentary about the upcoming December meeting leaves us looking at Waller’s commentary earlier in the week, who “leans in favour” of a 25bp cut, but it still depends on the upcoming data before the meeting (NFP, CPI, PPI). 2025 Voter Musalem also spoke, noting they can pause at upcoming meetings but he is waiting for the data to make his mind up and is keeping all options open. In FX, the Dollar was flat with outperformance in Cable despite dovish rate guidance from the Bank of England’s Bailey, who sees four 25bps rate cuts in 2025, which took Cable to lows before paring after strong UK Services PMI data while the Dollar weakness post-ISM also lifted the pair to outperform. The Japanese Yen underperformed however but was off its worst levels in the wake of the ISM data. The Australian Dollar lagged after weak GDP numbers. The Euro was ultimately flat while French PM Barnier lost the vote of no confidence, as expected. Crude prices saw notable selling pressure with only a fleeting upside seen after a larger-than-expected draw. There was sharp downside in crude with little explanation, but Reuters sources reported a bank sold USD 270 million of US oil futures ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. Regarding the upcoming meeting, one Reuters source suggested that OPEC+ could even extend production cuts as far out as six months, but another source said this is unlikely – expectations are for a 3-month extension. Bitcoin rose above USD 103K overnight and has held these gains as I go to press after US President-elect Trump named crypto friend Paul Atkins as SEC chair. ISM Services PMI for November fell short of all expectations and even outside the bottom end of the consensus range, as the headline fell to 52.1 from 56.0 (exp. 55.5). Within the report, prices paid ticked marginally higher to 58.2 from 58.1 while business activity dipped to 53.7 from 57.2. New orders (53.7 from 57.4), Employment (51.5 from 53.0), Backlog, and Supplier Deliveries all declined, with the latter falling into contractionary territory. Inventories also tumbled beneath 50.0. Within some of the respondents’ comments, some continue to highlight the uncertainty of tariffs while another said, “Even though we are reducing our spending and our employment levels, we have a positive outlook for 2025 performance with expected reinvestment of funds”. Overall, Oxford Economics notes despite the downside surprise the index still signals expansion in the sector and comments from survey panelists painted a far more optimistic picture. Ahead, the result does not influence our outlook for continued expansion in consumer spending, particularly on the services side, which will keep the economy humming along. Fed Chair Powell said little new, largely leaving us to look back at Waller’s comments for final guidance before the Fed blackout. Fed Chair Powell did not speak on the December meeting, but he did speak up about the economy, stating unemployment is still very low and the Fed is making progress on inflation, albeit they are not quite there yet on inflation. He said the economy is in good shape and there is no reason that it cannot continue. He added that the Fed is on a path to more neutral rates over time, though downside risks are less than thought, and the Fed can afford to be cautious in finding neutral. Elsewhere, Oil closed 1.69% lower while Gold was quiet, closing higher by 0.2%.

To mark my 3100^th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it was made 10 points yesterday and is now ahead by 104 points for December after closing November with a gain of 3049 points having finished October with a gain of 2179 points. September saw a gain of 4402 points following a 301-point loss for August after closing July with a gain of 1918 points while June closed with a gain of 2074 points, having made 1843 points in May. The Platinum Service made 4010 points in April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking