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Opinion – Wednesday 24 April 2024

U.S Equity Markets continued their rally after the slump seen last week. The majority of the upside was sparked after the soft US PMI data with some cautious commentary on the labour market supporting the dovish move. As a result, the Dollar sold off throughout the session while T-Notes bull steepened. The 2 Year Treasury Auction was solid but it had little market impact with the PMI data driving price action throughout the session. In FX, the Dollar lagged while Pound outperformed after hawkish commentary from Bank of England Chief Economist Pill despite dovish remarks from Ramsden on Friday. The Japanese Yen saw some strength overnight on remarks from Finance Minister Suzuki that last week’s discussions in Washington have laid the groundwork for Japan to take appropriate FX action. There was also a Nikkei sources article noting the Bank of Japan will discuss the rapid slide of the Yen at their meeting later this week; helping keep USD/JPY sub-155.00. EUR/USD reclaimed 1.07 thanks to the Dollar weakness. Meanwhile, on earnings, UPS, GE and GM figures were strong although Materials name underwhelmed. US S&P Global Flash PMIs for April were soft, as Manufacturing fell into contractionary territory printing 49.9 (exp. 52.0, prev. 51.9). Services fell to 50.9 from 51.7, and shy of the forecasted 52.0, leaving the Composite at 50.9 from 52.1. As a result of the cooler-than-expected metrics a broad-based dovish reaction was seen across markets. Within the release, it says “the US economic upturn lost momentum at the start Q2, and further pace may be lost in the coming months, as April saw inflows of new business fall for the first time in six months and firms’ future output expectations slipped to a five-month low amid heightened concern about the outlook”. Further still, the report adds that “notably, the drivers of inflation have changed. Manufacturing has now registered the steeper rate of price increases in three of the past four months, with factory cost pressures intensifying in April amid higher raw material and fuel prices, contrasting with the wage-related services-led price pressures seen throughout much of 2023.” New home sales in March rose 8.8% to 693k, above the expected 670k and the prior, revised lower, 637k. Internally, new home supply fell to 8.3 months’ worth (prev. 8.8 months in Feb), with the median sale price falling 1.9% Y/Y to USD 430,700 from USD 438,900. Overall, while the headline surprised to the upside, a downward revision to February sales took some of the steam out of it. Looking ahead, Oxford Economics notes its baseline assumes that new-home sales will edge slightly higher over the remaining three quarters of 2024, although the recent backup in mortgage rates lends a downside risk to that forecast. Despite Telsa earnings coming in much weaker than expected, the share price is ahead by 13% this morning, helping the NDX and S&P to continue this week’s surge. Elsewhere, Oil rose 1.75% while Gold ended Tuesday flat, following another volatile trading session.

To mark my 2975th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it lost 68 points yesterday and is now ahead by 3184 points for April after ending March with a gain of 2113 points. February closed with a gain of 1606 points, after closing January with a gain of 3675 points. December saw a gain of 1890 points after finishing November with a gain of 1734 points. October ended with a gain of 3184 points, after closing September with a small gain of 228 points, after finishing August with a gain of 1485 points, following a small gain of 285 points gain in July, after closing June with a gain of 2683 points. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking 

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Opinion – Tuesday 23 April 2024

U.S. Equity Markets managed to claw back some of the prior week's losses, with a rebound in Nvidia (NVDA) shares and in Semi-Conductors supportive of the move, underpinning technology outperformance. Elsewhere gold and oil prices were lower on a lack of geopolitical...

Opinion – Monday 22 April 2024

U.S. Equity Markets closed lower for the sixth consecutive trading session led by the NASDAQ with notable downside in Nvidia (NVDA) and Netflix (NFLX) shares. The latter was hit on a slightly disappointing next quarter revenue guidance and stopping to report...


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Trading – like any other profession – requires a lot of self education, adherence to some fundamental principles and continuous research.

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