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Opinion – Friday 2 June 2023

An up day for American Indexes was not unexpected given the seasonality. What was unexpected was the VIX crush, falling 12.75% to sit at 2023 lows at a price of 15.85. The fall in the VIX is actually the lowest read since November 2021. Salesforce (CRM) reported higher first-quarter profit, surpassing Wall Street expectations, signalling that its cost-cutting efforts as part of its turnaround plan are yielding positive results. The company’s margins came in ahead of its own projections, indicating effective cost management. Salesforce also raised its earnings outlook and margin targets for the year while maintaining its revenue guidance. The House of Representatives has passed debt-limit legislation negotiated by President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The bill aims to place limits on government spending until the 2024 election and prevent a potential U.S. default, which could have severe economic consequences. The legislation received bipartisan support, with 314 votes in favour and 117 against. It will now move to the Senate for further consideration, as the deadline for potential default approaches. U.S. employers experienced an unexpected surge in job vacancies in April, reaching the highest level in three months, according to the Labour Department’s Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Available job positions rose to 10.1 million, up from a revised 9.75 million in March. Despite the uptick, the larger trend continues to point towards an easing labour market, albeit at a slow pace. According to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book survey of regional business contacts, the U.S. economy has displayed signs of cooling in recent weeks, with hiring and inflation experiencing slight easing. The report, published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, stated that prices moderately rose during the reporting period, although the rate of increase slowed in many districts. This data falls mostly inline with recent metrics pointing towards an economy that is still growing, but at a declining rate. Federal Reserve officials hinted at their intention to maintain interest rates at their current level in June, while also keeping the option open for potential rate hikes in the future. Governor Philip Jefferson stated that forgoing a rate increase in June would allow policymakers to evaluate data while still leaving room for possible tightening measures later on. European Markets closed higher. Euro-Zone inflation dropped more than anticipated, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, due to declining energy prices and a drop in food inflation. Annual consumer prices rose by 6.1% in May, down from 7% in April, according to Eurostat. Despite easing inflation, the central bank emphasised the need for further interest rate hikes to address persistent price pressures. Klaas Knot, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, suggested that investors may need to revise their expectations of future interest rate cuts in 2024. Knot highlighted that financial markets are already pricing in rate cuts for next year, but there is a possibility of adjustments to these expectations, which could lead to market corrections. Knot previously stated that once rates reach their peak, they are expected to remain at that level for a significant duration. In Asia, China’s factory activity shifted from a decline to growth in May, as reported by the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI). This growth was primarily driven by improvements in production and demand, providing relief to struggling firms that have faced plummeting profits. China’s recovery from the strict COVID-19 restrictions has been uneven with various economic indicators for April, such as imports, factory gate prices, and property investment, showing a decline. The swing to growth in factory activity indicates a positive development but underlines the challenges that persist in the country’s economic recovery process. Elsewhere, Oil surged 2.95% while a weaker Dollar saw Gold end Thursday with a gain of 0.60%.

To mark my 2800th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details

For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 287 points yesterday on the first trading session for June. May closed with a gain of 3205 points. April saw a gain of 3354 points while March closed with a gain of 6168 points. The Platinum Service made 3164 points in February, 4687 points in January 2054 points in December, 4789 points in November and a record 9619 points last October.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1900 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking 

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Opinion – Thursday 1 June 2023

Despite Nvidia (NVDA), a leading chipmaker, briefly surpassed the $1 trillion market valuation mark on Wednesday, the NDX led yesterday’s across the board declines, closing lower by 0.70%. Nvidia has emerged as a frontrunner in the AI industry, exemplifying Wall...

Opinion – Wednesday 31 May 2023

U.S Equity Markets closed mixed, well off intra-day highs after a volatile two-way trading session. Despite the mixed finish, the VIX closed lower by 2.73% at a price of 17.46. Meanwhile Bond Yields slumped across the curve. Democratic President Joe Biden and top...


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