Futures Trading Education

U.S. Indices saw two-way price action on Monday and ultimately closed little changed, albeit the Russell 2000 underperformed. The session started rather sombre with downside in US stocks, bonds and the Dollar in the wake of Moody’s downgrading the US credit rating. This sparked selling in Asia and European sessions, but the downside had largely rebounded throughout the US session to see equities close mixed. T-Notes settled well off the earlier lows while the Treasury curve steepened. There was little US data to digest on Monday, with the focus on the US downgrade, but there were several Fed speakers to digest. The wait-and-see message is still clearly the consensus, but highlights saw Williams describe policy as “slightly” restrictive, while Bostic reiterated he sees one rate cut this year. Crude prices settled green in a very choppy session. Initially, crude was sold on the risk-off conditions, before paring to peaks as risk sentiment improved. However, the conclusion of the Trump/Putin phone call saw pressure in the crude space, with talks between Ukraine and Russia set to begin immediately. In FX, the Dollar was sold, but Antipodes outperformed on the equity rebound. AUD traders’ attention turns to the RBA overnight. New York Fed President Williams noted how recent data has been very good and the labour market is pretty much in balance, noting how the Q1 growth was unusual due to trade issues. He noted it will take some time to get a good read on the economy, and that policy is in a good place. The FOMC Vice Chair said that the Fed policy is “slightly restrictive”. The “slightly” language is a tweak from the “modestly” language he used in April, and also at odds with the “moderately” language others, including Powell, use on the FOMC to describe the state of policy. Although subtle, this might imply that Williams thinks we are now closer to neutral than before, and that rates may need to stay higher for longer at current levels to bring inflation down to target. Williams also repeated that the Fed can take its time to get a good read on the economy, he warned the path forward on policy might not become clearer for months, noting it is not going to be that in June, they are going to understand what is happening, or July. Stressing that it will be a process of collecting data to get a better picture. Meanwhile, Fed Member Bostic speaking on the Moody’s downgrade, said it will cut across economics and financial markets, and it will have implications for the cost of capital and could ripple through the economy. The Atlanta Fed President said they will have to wait between 3-6 months to see how things settle and will have to wait and see about the impact of the downgrade on demand for US debt. Ahead, Bostic added the number of rate cuts this year depends on how things turn out, and the details of the tariffs will matter. He is leaning much more towards only one cut this year because it will take time to understand tariffs. However, it depends on how the trade situation unfolds. Note, in March he pencilled in one rate cut from two in December. On the Fed’s mandate, he added that right now he sees more risk of higher inflation than the employment side, and inflation expectations are moving in a troubling way. On data, he said may be at a point where the distance between sentiment and data starts to narrow, but not there yet, and inventory rundown may be nearing an end. Elsewhere, both Oil and Gold closed higher on Monday by 0.68% and 1% respectively.

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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 50 points on Friday and is now ahead by 2335 points for May after closing April with a gain of 7685 points after closing March with a gain of 2254 points while closing February with a gain of 4180 points. January ended with a gain of 2768 points while 1997 points were gained in December. October ended with a gain of 2179 points, after closing September with a gain of 4402 points, following a loss of 301 points in August. July gained 1908 points while June saw a gain of 2074 points. The Platinum Service made a record 9619 points in October 2022.  Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 2300 points. I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking