Following a volatile start to the week, U.S. Equity Markets recouped some of their afternoon sell-off to close slightly lower on the day, led by the Dow which closed with a loss of 0.58%. While speaking at an Economics Conference in Washington, D.C., Fed Chair Powell said that the central bank is prepared for 50 basis-point (0.50%) rate hikes if needed to combat inflation. He added that inflation was too high, and the central bank is committed to returning to price stability. He also said that the central bank could tighten policy and could move from accommodative, past “neutral,” and into “restrictive” territory if inflation does not come down. The market did not like these comments, as they indicate that the Fed will begin tightening policy quicker in order to fight inflation. That sparked fears that the Fed’s coming policy moves will choke off economic growth, and potentially cause a recession. With these concerns growing in recent days, investors lowered their risk exposure by selling their stocks. In Russia, the Kremlin said that no significant progress has been made in negotiations so far. This dampened some of the recent optimism that the two sides could be nearing an agreement. Still, negotiations will continue. In the S&P 500 Index, the declines outnumbered the advances yesterday. Boeing (BA) was one of the main drags on the market, after an airline using one of its planes reported a crash in China. On the positive side, property and casualty insurer Alleghany (Y) soared more than 20% after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) announced it was buying the company. Within the S&P 500, six of the 11 sectors finished lower. European Markets closed mixed. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky called again for a round of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in an attempt to end the current conflict. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said the government would fast-track importing liquified natural gas from Qatar to diversify away from Russian supplies. European Central Bank (“ECB”) Vice President Luis de Guindos said it is paying close attention to any signs of rapidly rising wage inflation and is prepared to act. ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said investor expectations for a rate hike in 2022 are realistic, after saying last week he expects two rate hikes this year. In Asia, Chinese President Xi Jinping is said to have told U.S. President Joe Biden he is concerned about tensions building between the two nations over Taiwan. Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi called on the United Arab Emirates to boost oil production in an attempt to stabilize global prices. China’s U.S. Ambassador Qin Gang said the country will do all it can to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Australia’s government said it would ban the export of alumina and aluminum ores to Russia to limit the country’s production and export of aluminum. Elsewhere, Oil rose 7.1% on reports that European governments were getting closer to banning crude oil imports, while Gold closed 0.46% higher after State Street highlighted gold’s use as a safe haven during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
To mark my 2500th issue of TraderNoble Daily Commentary I am offering a special 2-Year Rate of Euro 2750 for my Platinum Service which includes 1 to 4 updated emails throughout the trading day to demonstrate this value, a monthly subscription over the same period would cost 4440 euro in total This offer represents a 38% discount and is open to both new and existing members. If anyone is interested in this offer can you please email me on bryan@tradernoble.com for details
For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 485 points yesterday and is now ahead by 4808 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.04% lower at a price of 4461.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 201 points lower for a 0.58% loss at a price of 34,552.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.31% lower at a price of 14,376.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.6% lower.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 1.48% higher at a price of 27,224.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.4% higher.
The Euro closed 0.2% lower at $1.1015.
The British Pound closed 0.2% lower at 1.3156.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.7%, closing at $120.10.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed 11 basis points higher at 0.47%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed 14 basis points higher at 1.64%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed 14 basis points higher 2.29%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 7.1% higher at $112.49 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.46% higher at $1932.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have Euro-Zone Current Account at 9.00 am followed by Construction Output at 10.00 am. ECB President is speaking at 1.15 pm. Finally, we have U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at 2.00 pm and a speech from Fed Member Williams at 2.30 pm.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked really well yesterday as both my sell level and buy level were filled in a trading session that saw plenty of two-way price action. I sold the S&P at 4480 before we traded lower to my 4465 T/P level. Following hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, the S&P sold off to my 4425 buy level before rallying to my 4442 T/P level and I am now flat. I laugh anytime I hear that the Fed are serious about hiking Interest Rates. Last week, when the Fed finally hiked by 0.25%, the Fed expanded its Balance Sheet by $43bn to a record high $8,954 Trillion. To me, this is insane as how can you take anything serious about the Fed’s intention to fight inflation when their Balance Sheet continues to expand. The market came to the same conclusion as we rallied into the close, to just loose one Handle on the day. The S&P has resistance from 4495/4515 where I will again be a seller with no stop for now. The S&P found support at its’ 50-Day MA yesterday (4428) As long as this level holds, I will continue to be a small buyer on dips. Today. My buy level is from 4400/4420 with the same 4389 stop
EUR/USD
The Euro traded in a narrow range yesterday, before selling off overnight to my 1.0980 buy level. I will add to this trade on any further move lower to 1.0920 while leaving my stop unchanged at 1.0895. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1020 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
March Dollar Index
The Dollar fell shy of my initial 97.90 buy level and I am still flat as the market is trading higher by 0.5% this morning. I will now raise my buy level to 97.70/98.30 with a higher 97.25 stop.
Cash DAX
No Change. The DAX is now overbought, has resistance from 14550/14650 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 14745 stop. The DAX has short-term support from 14050/14150 and I will move my buy level to this area with a higher 13935 stop.
Cash FTSE
I am still flat. I will now raise my sell level to 7510/7570 with a tight 7615 stop.
Dow Rolling Contract
The Dow was the weakest of the U.S Indexes yesterday, trading in a wide 500 point range. After the Dow traded lower to my 34460 buy level, I emailed my Platinum Members to exit any long position at 34570 and I am still flat. Following yesterday’s hawkish comments from Powell, a 50 basis point rate hike is now priced into the market, while the late rally saw the 50-Day MA hold (34502). The 200-Day MA comes in at 34,973 and I would expect this level to be tested over the coming days. I will be an aggressive seller from 35050/35350 with no stop. As long as the Dow does not break and close below 34300, I will continue to be a buyer of dips. Today, my buy level will be from 34200/34400 with a wider 33995 stop. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index closed unchanged at 38 last night.
Cash NASDAQ 100
My NDX plan worked well yesterday with the market trading lower to my 14280 buy level before rallying to my 14380 T/P level and I am now flat. Despite the NDX rallying 11% last week, 70% of the NASDAQ stocks are still trading below their respective 200 Day Moving Averages. This leaves plenty of room for the NDX to rally, especially as we are still trading 700 points below the 200-Day MA (15105). I would love to see this key resistance level tested as it will set up a nice low risk short. Today, I will again be a buyer on any dip lower to 14150/14250 with a wider 13995 stop. We have short-term resistance from 14900/15100 where I will be a strong seller with a wider 15255 stop.
June BUND
The Bund got hit hard yesterday, following the rise in 10-Year Treasuries which closed at a three-year high of 2.29%. So far stock markets are ignoring the back-up in yields but for how much longer? Yesterday’s move lower saw the whole of my buy range filled for a 160.30 average long position, before stopping me out of this trade this morning at 159.55 and I am now flat. The Bund is severely oversold. We have support from 158.70/159.30 where I will again be a buyer with a 158.05 stop. If I am taken long I will have a T/P level at 159.95.
Gold Rolling Contract
Gold never came close to yesterday’s buy range before rallying once the American Markets opened and I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 1895/1910 with a higher 1879 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
I am still flat. I will now raise my buy level to 24.00/24.60 with a tight 23.95 stop.
Recent Comments