U.S. Equity Markets finished Friday’s session higher, as investors continue to digest the Geopolitical headlines. Late in the morning, the S&P 500 Index tested its 100-day moving average (around 4,545) – a key technical level. Bulls could not push through this level, and markets hit the resistance and sold off. The timing coincided with reports that a Saudi Arabian oil facility had been attacked by rebels. This report suggested that the country’s output could be impacted. Since Saudi Arabia is the largest crude exporter, any disruption in supply would make the current energy supply shortage even worse. That would push prices higher, worsening the inflation outlook. But these fears eased into the afternoon, on news that a fire at the Saudi facility was under control. That rallied markets off their lows into the close – finishing just below the 100-DMA. Elsewhere, U.S. Consumer Sentiment fell to the lowest level since 2011, with reduced living standards, inflation, and the war in Ukraine weighing on optimism, while Pending Home Sales declined, as housing inventory remains tight. Within the S&P 500, nine of the 11 sectors finished higher. European Markets closed higher. French President Emmanuel Macron said he would work with Turkish President Recep Erdoğan to try and find a diplomatic resolution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The NATO leaders summit called for Russian President Vladimir Putin to immediately call a ceasefire in Ukraine, and work out a resolution with the government in Kyiv. European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the central bank could increase its asset purchases again if the Ukraine conflict significantly hurts the economy. European Central Bank Governing Council member Mário Centeno said it will begin to normalise monetary policy gradually, starting at the end of this year. In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said monetary policy remains focused on steady expansion, and recent Yen weakness should boost economic growth. China’s Commerce Ministry spoke positively about the U.S. reinstatement of product exclusions from tariffs, saying it would aid the return to a normal flow of trade. NATO issued a joint statement calling on China to refrain from providing any assistance to Russia as a means to circumvent sanctions related to the invasion of Ukraine. South Korea’s Health Ministry said the rate of daily COVID-19 cases has likely reached its peak and should begin to slow. Elsewhere, Oil rose 0.65% as an attack on a Saudi Arabian oil facility threatened crude supply, while Gold closed lower by 0.4% on little news.
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For anyone following my Platinum Service it made 125 points on Friday and is now ahead by 5534 points for March. The Platinum Service made an impressive 5324 points gain in February, after ending January with a gain of 3878 points, more than making up for December’s 932 points loss, having made 2466 points in November, 1028 points in October, 2866 points in September, 1543 points in August, and 996 points in July. The Platinum Service made 1366 points in June, 1439 points in May, 1244 points in April, after ending March with an impressive gain of 3769 points. Since I started this New Platinum Service in June 2015 it has averaged a monthly gain of over 1600 points I have a YouTube Channel which contains recent interviews I have given This can be viewed by clicking HERE Please subscribe to this for new interview notification
Equities
The S&P 500 closed 0.51% higher at a price of 4543.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 153 points higher for a 0.44% gain at a price of 34,861.
The NASDAQ 100 closed 0.08% lower at a price of 14,754.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index closed 0.5% higher.
This morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5%.
This morning, the Nikkei closed 0.65% lower at a price of 27,966.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed 0.3% higher.
The Euro closed 0.3% lower at $1.0979.
The British Pound closed 0.1% lower at 1.3179.
The Japanese Yen fell 0.4%, closing at $122.49.
Bonds
Germany’s 10-year yield closed six basis points higher at 0.59%.
Britain’s 10-year yield closed five basis points higher at 1.70%.
US 10 Year Treasury closed 11 basis points higher 2.49%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude closed 0.65% higher at $114,23 a barrel.
Gold closed 0.4% lower at $1942.10 an ounce.
This morning on the Economic Front we have no data of note from either the U.K. or the Euro-Zone. At 1.30 pm we have U.S. Wholesale Inventories and the Trade Balance. Finally, at 3.30 pm we have the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index.
Cash S&P 500
My S&P plan worked well with the market testing the 100 Day Moving Average as expected, hitting my 4540 sell level before selling off to my 4522 T/P level and I am still flat. The afternoon sell-off saw the S&P just miss my 4497 buy level with a 4502 low print before reversing all the afternoon losses to close higher by 0.5% at a price of 4543. I am not sure how much higher Bond Yields need to rise before we see a more meaningful sell-off in the S&P. The McClellan Oscillator actually closed lower on Friday despite the rally in the Dow and S&P which is another warning sign. This morning the S&P is trading lower at 4525. I will not chase the market higher, leaving my 4482/4497 buy level unchanged with the same tight 4469 stop. We have strong resistance from 4545/4565 where I will be an aggressive seller with a 4583 stop.
EUR/USD
Despite the rally in Equity Markets on Friday, the Dollar closed higher, dragging the Euro lower. This led to the Euro hitting my buy level at 1.0980. I will add to this trade at 1.0920 while leaving my 1.0875 stop unchanged. I will now lower my T/P level to 1.1010 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members
March Dollar Index
Shortly after I posted on Friday the Dollar rallied to my 98.70 T/P level on my latest 98.40 long position and I am now flat. This morning the Dollar is opening higher at 99.10. We have support from 98.30/98.80 where I will again be a buyer with a 97.85 stop.
Cash DAX
The DAX continues to struggle to move higher and I am still flat. I am not going to chase the market higher leaving my 14030/14130 buy level unchanged with the same 13975 stop. I still do not want to be short the DAX at this time.
Cash FTSE
No Change. The FTSE traded in a narrow range on Friday and I am still flat. Today, I will continue to be a seller from 7520/7570 with the same 7625 stop. I still do not want to be long the FTSE at this time.
Dow Rolling Contract
Friday’s rally saw the VIX fall 4%, closing just above my 20.50 target level with a 20.81 close. I am still flat the Dow, as I wait patiently for the market to hit my sell range above 35,000 as outlined in Friday’s Commentary. Today, I will continue to be an aggressive seller from 35050/35350 with no stop. The Dow has short-term support from 34200/34400 where I will be a small buyer with a tight 34075 stop. The ‘’Fear & Greed’’ Index closed unchanged at 46 on Friday, with a still ‘’Neutral’’ Reading.
Cash NASDAQ 100
I am still flat. I will continue to be an aggressive seller from 14980/15100 with the same wider 15255 stop. I no longer want to be long the NDX at this time especially with the 10-Year Treasury trading at 2.49%
June BUND
Frustratingly, the Bund missed my 159.65 T/P level with a 159.60 high print before stopping me out at 158.35. Given how oversold the Bund is trading, I bought the market again at 158.45. I am still long and I will add to this trade at 157.75. I will have a T/P level at 158.90 while my stop is at 157.25. If any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
Gold Rolling Contract
I am still flat. As I am long Silver, I will now lower my Gold buy level to 1905/1920 with a lower 1893 stop.
Silver Rolling Contract
This morning, Silver traded lower to my 25.00 buy level. I will add to this trade at 24.40 while leaving my 23.95 stop unchanged. I will have a T/P level at 25.40 and if any of the above levels are hit I will be back with a new update for my Platinum Members.
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